The No. 4-seeded Arizona Wildcats face the No. 1-seeded Duke Blue Devils in the Sweet 16 tonight. With Cooper Flagg leading the way, this Blue Devils offense has been on fire, and my Arizona vs. Duke predictions are betting on another high-scoring game.
Here are my best March Madness picks for this East Region showdown, with tipoff at 9:39 p.m. ET from the Prudential Center in New Jersey on Thursday, March 27.
Who will win Arizona vs Duke?
The Arizona Wildcats are coming off an 87-83 win against Oregon. They got red-hot shooting from Caleb Love while the Ducks went just 12-22 from the free-throw line and committed a slew of sloppy turnovers.
All those things went right, and Arizona still barely won, which is a troubling sign with the top-rated team in the country on deck for Thursday.
The Duke Blue Devils are better on both sides of the floor, have more high-end talent, and also boast superior depth. The Blue Devils cruised to a 14-point win at Arizona in November, and their young lineup has improved since. Duke is a -500 favorite for good reason and will advance to the Elite Eight.
Arizona vs Duke prediction
My best bet: Duke team total Over 81.5 (-120 at bet365)
When these teams clashed in November, Duke won 69-55 despite shooting 43% from the floor and posting an ugly 20.2% turnover rate. Duke was integrating four freshmen into its rotation, which led to some early growing pains on offense.
However the Blue Devils have built chemistry over the last four months and now have the highest-rated offense in the country per KenPom. They lead all high-major schools in eFG% (57.9%) while turning the ball over at the fourth-lowest rate (13.6%).
They were also playing at a slow pace earlier in the season, but ramped up their tempo in the middle of February, which led to them scoring 90+ points in five of their last seven regular-season games. They slowed down in the ACC Tournament with Cooper Flagg injured, but they began to run again when he returned in the Round of 64.
They scored 93 points against Mount St. Mary's in the opening round despite resting their starters in the second half, and they dropped 89 points against a slow-paced Baylor squad in the last round. They'll put up points against the Wildcats, who play at a Top-50 tempo and have surrendered 80.6 ppg over their last 10 games.
The Wildcats struggle to defend the arc, ranking 351st in the country at allowing high-quality threes per ShotQualityBets. They'll get torched by a Duke squad that's fifth in the country in 3-point percentage (39.7%) since the start of January.
Arizona vs Duke same-game parlay (SGP)
Duke team total Over 81.5
Cooper Flagg Over 4.5 assists
Caleb Love Under 17.5 points
Cooper Flagg leads Duke with 4.2 assists per game and has dropped 5+ dimes in six of his last eight contests. The two games where he went below that number were when he was injured early against Georgia Tech and a blowout win against FSU where he played just 20 minutes and still had four assists.
The freshman phenom does a great job of kicking the ball out to open shooters on the perimeter which will exploit Arizona's poor 3-point defense.
Caleb Love torched Duke in the Final Four in 2022, but in four meetings since, he's averaged 10.5 ppg while shooting just 14.8% from deep. Love is coming off a stellar performance against Oregon, but he tends to be wildly inconsistent.
He had a stinker of a game against Iowa State at the start of March while also having quiet recent games against Akron and Kansas. I'm fading him against an elite defense and a school that's had his number over the last three years.
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Arizona vs Duke odds
Arizona vs Duke live odds
Arizona vs Duke opening odds
- Spread: Arizona +9 (-110) | Duke -9 (-110)
- Moneyline: Arizona +350 | Duke -450
- Over/Under: Over 153.5 (-110) | Under 153.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Arizona vs Duke betting trend to know
The Over is 9-1 in Duke's last 10 games with Cooper Flagg in the lineup. Find more college basketball betting trends for Arizona vs. Duke.
How to watch Arizona vs Duke
| Region | East |
| Location | Prudential Center, Newark, NJ |
| Date | Thursday, 3-27-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:39 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Arizona vs Duke key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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