Have you heard how hard it is to beat a team three times in one season? The No. 3 Kentucky Wildcats are not only trying to beat the No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers for a third time this year; they are looking to upset the Volunteers for a third time.
Tonight's Kentucky vs. Tennessee predictions and March Madness picks expect the Wildcats to pull it off at tip at 7:39 ET on Friday, March 28.
Who will win Kentucky vs Tennessee?
Tennessee has kept on winning. The Volunteers have been upset outright three times in the last two months, and one of those came as short two-point road favorites against fellow Sweet Sixteen team Mississippi.
The other two upset losses? Both came to Kentucky. Tennessee was a 10.5-point home favorite the first time these two met, only to be trailing for the entire final 17 minutes.
The Wildcats forced the Vols to struggle from deep in those two games, going a laughable 11-of-45 in the first matchup. The laugh is not that 24.4%. The laugh is that was 62.5% of Tennessee’s field-goal attempts.
The Vols played smarter in their second matchup, still going just 3-of-18 from deep, though that was only a third of their field-goal attempts.
Simply put, this is a math problem for Tennessee. Both teams force an abundance of 3-point attempts. Only Kentucky can be trusted to make them. So …
Kentucky vs Tennessee prediction
My best bet: Kentucky moneyline (+165 at bet365)
We have established the math problem. Let’s also establish its long-term truth.
Across 18 regular-season SEC games, the Tennessee Volunteers made just 33.9% of its 3-pointers, still taking them on 42.9% of its field goal attempts. Both those rates will line up with the Kentucky Wildcats defense, opponents hitting 32.5% of their 3s against the Wildcats and taking them on 46.3% of field goal attempts.
Some quick context on those numbers: The SEC was a bad shooting conference this year. So forcing a bad 3-point shooting percentage is not all that impressive, yet Kentucky’s 32.5% allowed is still notably below the conference average of 33.7%. And forcing opponents to shoot from deep 46.3% of the time is well ahead of the conference average of 40.3%. Even in a bad shooting conference, the Wildcats’ defense emphasized shooting struggles.
Now to the other side of the math problem. Kentucky was the best shooting team in the SEC this year, and that is not solely because the other 15 teams were so woeful. The Wildcats hit 39.6% of their 3s in SEC play, taking them on 41.9% of their shots. That latter rate, notably, lines up with Tennessee’s defense, forcing 3-pointers on 44.7% of opposing field goal attempts. Sure, the Volunteers usually make opponents miss those shots, only hitting 30.0% in SEC play, but how much of that was because the conference was largely abysmal from deep this year?
Kentucky went 12-of-24 from beyond the arc in their first matchup and exactly that in the second matchup, as well. Just as notable, the Wildcats took 3-pointers on 48% and 46.2% of their shots against the Vols, respectively.
To sum up all those numbers: Tennessee’s offense fits into Kentucky’s defense just as the Wildcats would like, emphasizing a Vols’ weakness from long range, while the Wildcats’ offense gets the looks it wants against this orange defense.
When the math is this one-sided, the value of a +165 moneyline bet is too delightful to turn down.
Kentucky vs Tennessee same-game parlay (SGP)
Kentucky moneyline
Kentucky team total Over 70.5
Zakai Zeigler Under 1.5 threes
The Kentucky Team Total Over 70.5 should not need much explanation. If the Volunteers are going to encourage looks from deep, the Wildcats will make them. In their previous two matchups this year, Kentucky cleared its team total by 7.5 points and 6.5 points, respectively. It could have missed a couple more 3-pointers and still cashed this leg of the same-game parlay.
Doubting Zakai Zeigler is based both in past performance and in possible coaching adjustments. Zeigler went 1-of-11 from deep in this first meeting this year, then pulling back on his looks from deep in the second meeting, going 0-of-2.
It is quite possible the Tennessee coaching staff encourages the 5-foot-9 point guard to spend his time inside the arc in the Sweet Sixteen in an attempt to attack Kentucky’s defense differently, thus avoiding Einstein’s definition of insanity.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Kentucky vs Tennessee odds
Kentucky vs Tennessee live odds
Kentucky vs Tennessee opening odds
- Spread: Kentucky +4.5 | Tennessee -4.5
- Moneyline: Kentucky +175 | Tennessee -210
- Over/Under: Over 146.5 | Under 146.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Kentucky vs Tennessee betting trend to know
In his 29-year head coaching career, Rick Barnes has gone 1-8 outright when facing an opponent for a third time after losing to them twice earlier in the season. In the last five such moments — as far back as the Covers.com database goes — Barnes has gone 1-4 against the spread in those third meetings. Find more college basketball betting trends for Kentucky vs. Tennessee.
How to watch Kentucky vs Tennessee
| Region | Midwest |
| Location | Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date | Friday, 3-28-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:39 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS, truTV |
Kentucky vs Tennessee key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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