No. 2 Michigan State will meet No. 6 Mississippi in a battle to go to the South Regional Final.
This game features two head coaches who are easily regarded among the Top 20 in the sport and possibly higher. Michigan State got a test from a talented New Mexico team before it eventually pulled away late. Things were much simpler for the Rebels, who blasted Iowa State and cashed us a +190 moneyline best bet. This matchup will be much more difficult for Mississippi.
Read on for my Mississippi vs. Michigan State predictions and March Madness picks for Friday, March 28.
Who will win Mississippi vs Michigan State?
This is a great spot for Michigan State; they'll take care of business. This is coming from someone who doesn't always buy into the "Tom Izzo in March" narratives, too.
Mississippi got here via an easy win, but not only did that come against an injured Iowa State team, it came against one that had psychologically looked checked out for a few weeks beforehand. We noted that in our pregame preview as well. The Rebels have been up and down most of the season, while this Michigan State group has played Top 10 basketball for nearly two months.
Sparty is due for some shot regression, but even if that happens here, its advantage on the backboard will be enough to carry it through. Meanwhile, if the shots are going in, they'll be able to exploit multiple advantages on the floor.
Mississippi vs Michigan State prediction
My best bet: Jaxon Kohler Over 6.5 rebounds (-122 at bet365)
About a month ago, after a loss to Mississippi State, Rebels head coach Chris Beard had had enough of Mississippi's rebounding issues.
"That's what rebounding is," Beard said. "That's what finishing around the basket (is), demanding the refs call fouls. I just thought we had a lot of softness to us today. That's not easy for me to say as a coach, because it's one thing we pride ourselves in."
Beard was rightfully frustrated, too. The Bulldogs pounded the Mississippi Rebels on the glass that day to the tune of 48-36. This was just one of a long list of multiple games that contributed to their ranking in the 300s in offensive rebounding rate. You may think it's improved since then, but you'd be wrong.
Since that game on February 15th, Mississippi's putrid offensive rebounding percentage has improved by .001, and its defensive rebounding percentage has improved by 1%. In other words, it was bad then, and it's still bad. The Michigan State Spartans are elite on the backboard and well-built to take advantage of this. We're hitting the prop market to take advantage of this with Jaxson Kohler Over 6.5 rebounds.
The last game was an aberration for Kohler. He grabbed just two boards and broke a streak of hitting this number two games in a row. In addition to that, it was his lowest rebound output since January. I'm willing to write it off, especially playing a team that has been so bad on the backboard.
The analysis is quite simple here. I expect a relatively low-scoring game with two teams that can defend each other well. I saw a small amount of value in what is already the lowest total of the day. With an increase in misses comes an increase in rebound opportunities. Kohler is easily the best rebounder on the floor. When the two lineups come out, he'll have the highest defensive rebounding percentage of any player on the floor and the highest offensive rebounding percentage of anyone on the floor.
This one seems straightforward. I'd actually play this to 7.5 as I project a rebound total of 8.1.
Mississippi vs Michigan State same-game parlay (SGP)
Jaxon Kohler Over 6.5 rebounds
Under 144.5
Michigan State moneyline
Both of these legs were prefaced above.
The first is the Under of 144.5. I made this number 142, and there could be even more value beyond that. Both of these teams should be able to defend one another well. Michigan State has been dribble creation-focused over the last few games, and Mississippi is one of the better teams in the SEC defensively against that. Meanwhile, Michigan State should almost be able to completely eliminate the catch-and-shoot Mississippi threes that have really got their offense rolling.
We finished things up with the Sparty moneyline. Michigan State's biggest advantage for either team is found on the glass. I simply don't think Mississippi can overcome it without several made threes, and the Spartans have been the best three-point defense in the country all season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Mississippi vs Michigan State odds
Mississippi vs Michigan State live odds
Mississippi vs Michigan State opening odds
- Spread: Mississippi +3 (-110) | Michigan State -3 (-110)
- Moneyline: Mississippi +130 | Michigan State -155
- Over/Under: Over 144.5 | Under 144.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Mississippi vs Michigan State betting trend to know
Michigan State has hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 35 games (+18.80 Units / 2% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Mississippi vs. Michigan State.
How to watch Mississippi vs Michigan State
| Region | South |
| Location | State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA |
| Date | Friday, 3-28-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:09 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Mississippi vs Michigan State key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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