The ACC regular season wraps up on Saturday with a marquee matchup between the No. 7 North Carolina Tar Heels and the No. 9 Duke Blue Devils. This is one of the best rivalries in sports, and this year the stakes are high, with both teams looking like national title contenders and the Blue Devils fighting for a share of the ACC regular-season title on their home floor.
College basketball odds have the Blue Devils installed as 4.5-point home favorites with the Over/Under at 150.5. Here are my best free college basketball picks and predictions for North Carolina vs. Duke on March 9.
North Carolina vs Duke best odds
North Carolina vs Duke picks and predictions
These rivals faced off in Chapel Hill last month, with the North Carolina Tar Heels winning 93-84 to cover as 5-point favorites. Since that loss, the Duke Blue Devils have gone 8-1 straight up and against the spread and have played much defensively allowing just 62.6 points per game during that span.
The Blue Devils proved that they could put up points against UNC in that previous clash but their minus-6 turnover differential, 5-19 (26.3%) shooting from deep, and just 11 free throw attempts led to a defeat. However, the season-long numbers indicate that we should see positive regression from Duke in all of those areas.
Duke is 31st in the country in turnover rate and shoots a sizzling 38% from long range. The Tar Heels allow high-quality attempts from the arc, sitting outside the Top 250 at defending catch-and-shoot and off-the-dribble threes per ShotQualityBets. The Tar Heels also don't get as many calls going their way on the road, where they allow 20.4 free throw attempts per game, while Duke takes 20.1 FTA per game.
The Blue Devils have been phenomenal in Durham this season, going 15-2 SU and 11-6 ATS with an average scoring margin of +17.9 ppg.
The Tar Heels have been practically unbeatable at home themselves, but they've been vulnerable on the road. A big reason for that is a sharp decline in their shooting, with their impressive 53.8 EFG% in Chapel Hill plummeting to 48.6% in away contests.
It might seem shallow to bet a side largely because of a change in venue and expectations of regression, but the numbers are tough to ignore here. Back the Blue Devils in a revenge spot to win and cover at home.
My best bet: Duke -4.5 (-110 at bet365)
North Carolina vs Duke same-game parlay
Duke -4.5
Over 150.5
Harrison Ingram Over 9.5 rebounds
Duke has made strides on defense, while UNC ranks sixth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom, but we've already seen that both of these teams can score against each other.
Not only did they total 177 points in that first meeting, but they did so despite Duke going ice-cold from deep and rarely getting to the charity stripe. That game was played at a breakneck pace, and if this contest has a similar tempo, this O/U is way too low here.
Forward Harrison Ingram has been a massive transfer addition for UNC. The former five-star recruit has contributed as a scorer but it's his production on the glass that really stands out.
Ingram has had double-digit rebounds in 12 of his last 16 games, averaging 11.4 rpg during that span. He had 13 rebounds in the first meeting between these schools, and he should be busy on the boards again.
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North Carolina vs Duke spread and Over/Under analysis
The Blue Devils opened as 4.5-point home favorites for this clash, with the O/U at 149.5. Early money came in on Duke, shifting the line to -5.5 at some books but -4.5 is still available at others. Money on the Over has also caused the total to tick up to 150.5.
There isn't much separating these rivals this season. Both teams have identical 24-6 records, and if the Blue Devils win today, they would tie UNC atop the ACC standings with a 16-4 mark.
The Blue Devils are seventh in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency while ranking 22nd in adjusted defensive efficiency. Meanwhile, the Tar Heels are 26th in adjusted offensive efficiency while ranking sixth on defense.
After beating the Blue Devils last month, the Tar Heels immediately had a letdown performance and were upset at home by Clemson. They also lost to Syracuse on the road the following week but have since won five in a row to get back on track.
The Blue Devils have gone 8-1 SU and ATS in their last nine games, and they're coming off a 79-64 win against NC State where they easily covered as 6-point road faves.
North Carolina vs Duke betting trend to know
The Blue Devils are 22-13 ATS in their last 35 games overall (+8.80 Units / 23% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for North Carolina vs. Duke.
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North Carolina vs Duke game info
| Location: | Cameron Indoor Stadium, Durham, NC |
| Date: | Saturday, March 9, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 6:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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