The Washington Commanders were +6000 long shots to win the NFC Championship entering this NFL season. That’s less than a 2% chance. The Philadelphia Eagles, on the other hand, were among the frontrunners to claim the conference crown and opened at +850 to win the NFC — a 10.5% shot at advancing to Super Bowl LIX.
Nevertheless, these two divisional rivals face off in Sunday’s NFC Championship Game, with oddsmakers setting Philadelphia as a sizable home favorite.
My Commanders vs. Eagles predictions believe if Philly is going to end Washington's run, it all starts with running back Saquon Barkley, who can not only grind out gains on the ground but do damage as a receiver as well. Here are my best NFL picks for today's NFC title game.
Commanders vs Eagles prediction
- Spread prediction: Eagles -6 (-110 at Caesars)
- Moneyline prediction: Eagles moneyline (-278 at Caesars)
- Over/Under prediction: Under 47.5 (-110 at Caesars)
- Best bet: Saquon Barkley Over 12.5 receiving yards (-135 at Caesars)
Commanders vs Eagles spread
The spread for the NFC title game opened as low as Philadelphia -4.5, which is where I bet the Eagles last Sunday night (as highlighted in my Bet Now, Bet Later column). Since then, this line has risen to a market consensus of Philly -6.
While getting the best of the number is vital to success against the ultra-efficient NFL odds, I still lean Eagles at the 6-point spread. Not only can Philadelphia control the ball with the run game, but this is a massive step up in defensive opponent for Washington.
Commanders vs Eagles moneyline
The current outright odds have the Eagles priced as -278 favorites, giving the home side a 73.5% implied win probability in the NFC title game. The Commanders, who have won outright as road underdogs in the first two rounds of the postseason, come back at +222 (31% implied win probability).
I’m not running to bet on Philadelphia’s moneyline, but I do hold tickets on the Eagles to cover the spread, which requires not only a victory but a 7-point win from Philadelphia.
Commanders vs Eagles Over/Under
This Over/Under opened around 48 points and slimmed to 47.5 O/U, which is still on the high side of the key total spot of 47 points. I already bet the Under in this matchup, knowing the Eagles offer the Commanders a much stiffer test on defense than Tampa Bay or Detroit.
Philadelphia was also able to run at will on Washington in their two regular-season meetings, amassing about 430 yards on the ground. A similar run-heavy approach will slow down this game, take a high-octane Commanders offense off the field, and grind out extended possessions that chew up a lot of game clock.
Commanders vs Eagles best bet
Saquon Barkley Over 12.5 receiving yards (-135 at Caesars)
My analysis
Saquon Barkley’s ability to break off big gains on the ground has been the beating heart of this Philadelphia Eagles attack all season. The dynamic running back has amassed 324 yards rushing in the two postseason wins.
Those efforts almost make you forget just how dangerous Barkley is as a pass catcher.
Barkley was much more involved in the passing game early in the season and saw his targets start to dwindle in the middle of the schedule. He peaked at 10 yards receiving in the six games prior to last Sunday’s Divisional Round matchup with the Los Angeles Rams but drew four passes (catching all four) from QB Jalen Hurts for 24 yards through the air in that snowy victory.
That receiving effort topped his yardage total of 13.5 O/U and was the first time Barkley had gone Over his receiving yards number since Week 12. Despite that return to receiving prominence, Barkley’s receiving yard prop for the NFC Championship Game sits at 12.5 yards O/U — a mark I expect him to shatter.
While Philadelphia will be focused on the run this Sunday, there will be times when the Eagles must pass the football. In those spots, the Washington Commanders are going to bring extra pass rushers — which they did at the fifth-highest rate all season.
Hurts is playing on a bad knee suffered against the Rams last week, so he won’t be as mobile in the pocket as usual and looking to get rid of the ball quickly to avoid the slew of sacks taken in the Divisional Round (seven). Barkley is the ultimate checkdown option in those situations.
On the season, the Commanders allowed the fewest receiving yards to running backs. But that metric had more to do with Washington’s inability to stop the run — allowing the fourth-most rushing yards to RBs.
Why throw to the running back when they can get what they want on the ground? The defense still gave up more than eight yards per reception to rival RBs. That total included 52 yards receiving from Barkley in the Week 11 meeting with the Commanders, who caught two of three targets and took one of those catches for 43 yards.
Player projections for the NFC title game are very positive for Barkley’s role in the receiving game. All models consulted came in above the 12.5-yard total, with some forecasts flirting with 20 yards through the air. My number comes out around 17 yards receiving by the Eagles’ star running back.
Get more analysis from Jason by watching the Sharp 600 podcast!
Get more Conference Championship picks (and best bets) from Jason — and co-host Todd Fuhrman — by checking out the Sharp 600 podcast!
Watch below — and check out new episodes on the Covers' YouTube channel!
Commanders vs Eagles same-game parlay (SGP)
Saquon Barkley Over 12.5 receiving yards
Eagles moneyline
Under 47.5
Barkley could top this total with one catch and his models call for as many as 20 yards receiving.
The Eagles' run game and defense will take them back to the Big Game for the second time in three years.
Philadelphia ends the Commanders' Cinderella streak on the back of Vic Fangio’s defense and a clock-eating rushing attack.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Commanders vs Eagles odds
Commanders vs Eagles live odds
Commanders vs Eagles opening odds
- Spread: Washington +5 | Philadelphia -5
- Moneyline: Washington +210 | Philadelphia -263
- Over/Under: Over 48 | Under 48
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Commanders vs Eagles spread and Over/Under analysis
- Philadelphia opened as short as a 4.5-point favorite with questions around the health of QB Jalen Hurts and standout CB Quinyon Mitchell following the Divisional Round. However, that spread started to tick up with early play on the Eagles, and once those players were confirmed to play on Sunday, the spread settled at Philly -6.
- The Over/Under opened as high as 48.5 and has sunk to 47.5 points with play on the Under. The Eagles and Commanders finished 1-1 O/U in their two regular-season meetings, with closing totals of 47 and 49.5 points in those matchups.
- Covers Consensus shows 63% of spread picks taking the points with Washington while 68% of total picks have been on the Over.
Commanders vs Eagles betting trend to know
The Eagles are 4-15 Over/Under (79% Unders) in home playoff games since 2000. Find more NFL betting trends for Commanders vs. Eagles.
How to watch Commanders vs Eagles game info
| Location | Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date | Sunday, 1-26-2025 |
| Kickoff | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Commanders vs Eagles latest injuries
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