Oklahoma vs Baylor Odds, Picks and Predictions: Flagler Makes His Mark

Oklahoma (12-11) looks to snap a five-game losing streak in the Big 12 as it heads to Waco to face No. 14 Baylor (17-6) on Wednesday night.

The Bears have been one of the hottest teams in the country, winning seven of their last eight games to remain within striking distance in the conference standings.

Baylor grabbed a 62-60 win in Norman during the first matchup. Will the Sooners be able to get revenge, or are they outgunned? Check out our college basketball betting picks below to find out. 

Oklahoma vs Baylor best odds

Oklahoma vs Baylor picks and predictions

Oklahoma is in a dark place after losing five straight Big 12 games. Oddly enough, there’s an outlier 93-69 win over No. 3 Alabama sprinkled in on the resume from the Big 12-SEC Challenge on January 28.

\Otherwise, the gauntlet that is the Big 12 play has proven too tough for Porter Moser’s team as they sit near the bottom of the standings at 2-8.

This will be the second leg of a two-game road trip for Oklahoma. The first leg could not have gone worse — the Sooners fell apart in a 93-61 loss to West Virginia. They fell behind 56-30 at the half and never stood a chance, falling to cover the +5.5 spread by a margin of 26.5 points. 

Failing to cover the spread is nothing new to this Oklahoma team during its current losing streak. The Sooners are 0-4-1 ATS in their last four conference games with an average cover margin of -20.7.

They’ve also struggled in road contests, going just 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games, including that West Virginia blowout and a 79-52 loss to TCU before that. 

Baylor is red hot, winning seven of its last eight games to become a serious challenger in the Big 12, and my I'm targeting Bears guard Adam Flagler with my best bet. 

His points prop is set at 13.5, and considering this is one of the best players in program history and one who's averaging 15.1 points per game in his senior season, I'm betting Over. 

His home/road splits aren’t very telling — 15.2 ppg at home this season — but one has to feel decent about his chances to perform well in the confines of his own gym.

When these teams met in Norman on January 21, it was Flagler who led the Bears with 16 points en route to a 62-60 victory. He’s a sniper from downtown, hitting 2.7 threes per game on 6.3 attempts (41%). That’s not the only place that he’s a capable scorer, however, as he's able to get buckets on all three levels.

The Sooners like to funnel opponents toward the mid-range and the basket, ranking 293rd in mid-range field goal attempts and 314th in near-proximity attempts per 100 trips up court against the average opponent, per Haslametrics.

Flagler is a savvy bucket-getter who will find ways to score and has already solved this defense once this season. 

My best bet: Adam Flagler Over 13.5 points (-130 at DraftKings)

Oklahoma vs Baylor spread analysis

The spread opened at Baylor -9 but has since moved further in the home team’s direction. Be sure to shop around as Baylor currently resides between -9.5 and -10.5 depending on the location. 

For as bad as Oklahoma is playing lately, it’s hard to stomach this team being as wide as +10.5 in a conference game. The Big 12 is an extremely tough conference this season and there are basically no breaks in the schedule. This makes for a grueling January and February, and it's difficult for a team to avoid a slump unless it consistently maintains an elite level. 

While recent performance has been ugly, we’ve seen what this Sooners team is capable of — the 93-69 blowout victory over No. 3 Alabama can’t be ignored. The West Virginia loss is certainly an eye sore, but it also came under odd circumstances in which Tanner Groves fouled out in 11 minutes and Sam Godwin doing the same in 13. 

The trends will mostly support Baylor, who is 5-2-1 ATS in its last seven games and 11-4-1 in its last 16 Wednesday games.

I think zooming out might be a tad more prudent unless you believe that Oklahoma is in an unbreakable funk that won’t end any time soon. Each Big 12 game is a challenge and it must be treated with caution. There are no cakewalks in this league. 

The road team is 19-7-2 ATS in the last 28 meetings between these two schools. Playing Oklahoma on the second leg of a road trip against a surging Baylor team isn’t the best situational spot, but +10.5 is still too much in my opinion. 

Oklahoma vs Baylor Over/Under analysis

The total is currently set at 140.5. Both teams have had a slight tendency to the Over this season with identical marks of 12-11. The Sooners are 6-2 to the Over in their last eight games, which has been a change for a team that played to the Under to begin the season. The opposite is true for Baylor, who is 4-1 to the Under in its last five. 

There’s nothing overly telling about Oklahoma’s profile, as it ranks 51st in adjusted offensive efficiency and 57th in adjusted defensive efficiency (KenPom) — not a large discrepancy. The Sooners do tend to slow the game down, checking in at just 303rd in adjusted tempo. 

Baylor is an offensive juggernaut, ranking third in adjusted offensive efficiency and 72nd in adjusted defensive efficiency. It’s rare to see a team with three guards the quality of Keyonte George (17.2 ppg), LJ Cryer (14.3 ppg), and Flagler (15.1 ppg). Any one of those three can take over a game at any moment.

Oklahoma is having some defensive lapses, surrendering 81 ppg across its last three games. While Moser will be intent on fixing these defensive miscues, the second leg of a road trip against one of the country’s elite offense isn’t exactly the best time to install any changes.

Baylor ranks just 180th in adjusted tempo, so it’s unlikely there is a rapid pace in this matchup unless the Bears choose to break form. The first matchup saw just 122 combined points and while we likely see more scoring in the second meeting, 140.5 is a tad high for my liking due to the predicted pace. 

Oklahoma vs Baylor betting trend to know

Baylor is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games following a straight-up win of more than 20 points. Find more college basketball betting trends for Oklahoma vs. Baylor.

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