The second round of the SEC Tournament wraps up on Thursday night with a clash between the No. 14 seed Oklahoma Sooners and the No. 6 seed Kentucky Wildcats.
I expect the Wildcats to get the win, but my Oklahoma vs. Kentucky predictions are also backing the underdog Sooners to put up points. Here are my best free college basketball picks for this conference tournament showdown on March 13.
Who will win Oklahoma vs Kentucky?
The Kentucky Wildcats have won four of their last six with their only defeats during that span coming against No. 2-ranked Auburn and on the road versus No. 5 Alabama. That stretch includes an 83-82 victory against the Oklahoma Sooners in Norman, and this time the Wildcats get to play at a neutral site and face OU on a back-to-back.
Kentucky opened as a 5.5-point favorite before quickly moving to -6.5, which lines up with the Bart Torvik model which is projecting a 86-79 win for the Wildcats. They should be able to win here.
Oklahoma vs Kentucky prediction
My best bet: Oklahoma team total Over 77.5 (-120 at bet365)
The Wildcats have tightened up on defense in recent weeks but they still play at a blazing-fast pace, which has resulted in them hemorrhaging buckets. They've surrendered 82+ points in five of their last seven games, which includes that previous clash in Norman where the Sooners shot 53% from the floor and 40% from deep.
The Sooners are 21st in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency (KenPom) and have been filling up the hoop lately. They scored 81 points against a stingy Georgia defense last night and have now scored more than 80 in five of their previous six contests.
Oklahoma does a good job of spacing the floor, getting to the stripe (26th in the country in free throw rate), and knocking down outside shots (37th in 3-point percentage). They are also ninth in transition efficiency (ShotQualityBets) while Kentucky is just 349th at defending in transition.
Oklahoma's biggest flaw on offense is a tendency to cough up the ball, sitting just outside the Top 200 in turnover rate (17.2%). However, Kentucky doesn't apply much ball pressure and is just 338th in the country in opponent turnover rate (13.9%).
With Oklahoma's guards getting plenty of time to initiate the offense, back the Sooners to eclipse their team total tonight.
Oklahoma vs Kentucky same-game parlay (SGP)
Oklahoma team total Over 77.5
Kentucky moneyline
Oweh Over 17.5 points
Despite losing Jaxson Robinson (13.0 ppg) to a season-ending injury in the previous meeting between these teams, the Wildcats keep winning. Their depth and experience should lead to a victory even if Oklahoma lights up the scoreboard.
While I expect the Sooners to put up points, I also think they'll get shredded in their own end. Oklahoma was 15th in the SEC in adjusted defense during conference play and sit outside the Top 300 of the country in opponent 2-point percentage (54.6%).
Otega Oweh is a downhill player that attacks the rim at a high frequency and has dropped 20+ points in five of his last seven games — including that previous clash against Oklahoma.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Oklahoma vs Kentucky odds
Oklahoma vs Kentucky live odds
Oklahoma vs Kentucky opening odds
- Spread: Oklahoma +5.5 | Kentucky -5.5
- Moneyline: Oklahoma +190 | Kentucky -230
- Over/Under: Over 163.5 | Under 163.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Oklahoma vs Kentucky betting trend to know
The Sooners have cashed the team total Over in each of their last six games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Oklahoma vs. Kentucky.
How to watch Oklahoma vs Kentucky
| Location | Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN |
| Date | Thursday, 3-13-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | SEC Network |
Oklahoma vs Kentucky key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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