Oregon vs UCLA Picks and Predictions: Ducks Hunted By Juzang, Bruins Offense

The No. 3 UCLA Bruins have all the talent in the world to have realistic championship aspirations, but the biggest hurdle in their way has been the inability to play regularly. The Bruins have played just one game since December 1st prior to returning to play last week and showed a bit of rust against the likes of Long Beach State and California. Tonight, they face off against the Oregon Ducks, who have shown flashes during an otherwise shaky season.

Continue reading for our free college basketball picks and predictions for Oregon vs. UCLA on Thursday, January 13th for more.

Oregon vs UCLA odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

UCLA opened as -10.5 favorites and has moved down to -9.5 since. The total opened at 143 and has since moved down to 141.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Oregon vs UCLA predictions

• Prediction: UCLA -9.5 (-112)
• Prediction: Over 141 (-116)
• Best bet: UCLA -9.5 (-112)

Predictions made on 1/13/2022 at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Oregon vs UCLA game info

• Location: Pauley Pavilion, Los Angeles, CA
• Date: Thursday, January 13, 2022
• Tip-off: 9:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Oregon at UCLA betting preview

Injuries

Oregon: No injuries to report.
UCLA: No injuries to report.

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

In the nine games since N'Faly Dante has entered the starting lineup (Nov. 29 onwards), Oregon has played to the Over eight times. Find more NCAA betting trends for Oregon vs. UCLA.

Oregon vs UCLA picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

Given the departures of Chris Duarte (17.1 PPG) and Eugene Omoruyi (also 17.1 PPG), Oregon was always going to struggle to find its footing early. What made that challenge even more difficult for head coach Dana Altman was that he was filling those shoes with a trio of transfers (Jacob Young, De'Vion Harmon, Quincy Guerrier) and a former five-star center recovering from an ACL tear (N'Faly Dante). Senior guard William Richardson was the one returning contributor Altman could lean, and Richardson has delivered by leading the team in points (13.4 PPG) as well as three-point percentage and volume (44.3% on 4.7 3PA).

Inconsistent play up front, however, is largely why Oregon has struggled. With N'Faly Dante ramping up during his ACL recovery, transfer Quincy Guerrier was essentially starting at the five. As a result, Guerrier started the first six games of the season by shooting 13/42 (31%), which included a three-game stretch in which he scored just one basket each night. After Dante (a true 6'11" center) was inserted as a starter, Guerrier began to find more space and has shot 50% since. But that shift may have caused ripples elsewhere, leading to continued team-level struggles.

In the six games following the lineup change, forward Eric Williams averaged just 1.5 points and shot 3/18 (17%) outside of one good game against UC Riverside. This coincidentally came after shooting 51% and averaging 13 PPG in the first six games. During Willams' struggles, Rutgers transfer Jacob Young had a three-game stretch where he shot 22% and unsurprisingly, Oregon dropped games to Arizona State and Stanford during that time.

Things were starting to come together in mid-December, with Oregon shooting 54% from the field and 42% from three in a 25-point win against Portland and a tough single-digit loss against No. 1 Baylor. But things fell apart quickly with Oregon facing COVID issues in the following game, and then had a string of cancellations and postponements follow.

Oregon has since returned to play and has strung together two wins, and in front of them tonight is No. 3 UCLA who has also returned to play following a long stretch of inactivity. Oregon will have a tough time keeping up with UCLA, given UCLA's approach.

UCLA is 15th in the nation in two-point attempts, but those attempts largely come in the form of jumpers. 45% of all of UCLA's shots come in the form of a two-point jumper, which ranks 33rd in the nation. They shoot a respectable 40% on those shots, the 18th-highest mark for a Power 6 school. Oregon isn't particularly great at preventing those shots from being taken (29th-most allowed) or made (55th-highest field goal percentage allowed). UCLA also shoots 38.1% from three, the 29th highest mark in the nation.

Expect the Bruins to find separation and cover the number tonight. 

Prediction: UCLA -9.5 (-112)

Over/Under analysis

Oregon may not be the most impressive team record-wise but they are no slouches offensively. Although their 71.7 points per game aren't anything to write home about, what they accomplish offensively is more about efficiency (74th in field goal percentage) than it is about volume or pace (293rd in possessions per game). Managing to rank 29th in KenPom offensive efficiency amidst all of the consistency issues they've had with their rotation and quality of play is admirable, to say the least.

There's also this: in the six games to begin the season in which N'Faly Dante didn't start, the Ducks went Under the total five times. In the nine games since being named a starter, Oregon has gone Over the total in all but one. This includes the game in which they put up 70 points against Baylor, becoming just the third team this year to do so.

And as mentioned before, UCLA should have no issue scoring given the structure of the matchup. Putting the two together should lend its hand to points.

Prediction: Over 141 (-116)

Best bet

This game also may have a personal element to it. Last season's UCLA team dropped their lone game against Oregon following five separate cancellations and postponements, including the cancellation of their home game against the Ducks. That loss came during a four-game losing streak to finish the season, which narrowly almost caused the Bruins to not make the tournament. UCLA returns all five starters from that team including Juzang, who had a poor six-point outing in that game against Oregon. The Ducks, on the other hand, have very little meaningful continuity from last year's team and are unlikely to think as much of this game as a result.

When combining the structure and context of this matchup, it's hard to see this playing favorably into Oregon's hand.

Pick: UCLA -9.5 (-112)

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