St. John’s vs Xavier Odds, Picks and Predictions: Soriano Leads the Way Once More

Two teams that have struggled with difficult Big East schedules will face off tonight as the Xavier Musketeers host the St. John’s Red Storm at the Cintas Center.

Xavier is coming off a blowout loss at the Connecticut Huskies, the latest challenge for a team that has played one of the toughest schedules in the country. St. John’s hasn’t had it much easier, recently breaking a three-game losing streak with a win over the Villanova Wildcats. The Musketeers are a slight home favorite in the college basketball odds.

While Xavier is still alive thanks to its difficult schedule, the Musketeers need to start winning games if they want to make a run in March. We’ll look at their chances tonight in our free college basketball picks and predictions for St. John’s vs. Xavier on January 31.

St. John’s vs Xavier best odds

St. John’s vs Xavier picks and predictions

Despite its record, it’s clear that Xavier isn’t a bad basketball team. Most of its losses have come against elite opponents, and it's played tough against the Houston Cougars, Purdue Boilermakers, and — at least in its first encounter — Connecticut. That’s been enough to keep the Musketeers in a respectable position according to most analytics, with KenPom ranking them No. 41 in the country, for instance. 

However, Xavier is on the outside looking in when it comes to a March Madness berth. The Musketeers haven’t picked up a signature win this year, and are just 4-5 in the Big East this season. 

That includes a lopsided 81-66 loss to St. John’s in their first meeting back in December. In that game, Red Storm big man Joel Soriano was too much for Xavier to handle, leading four players in double figures by scoring 18 points and grabbing 14 rebounds. 

Soriano should be able to replicate that success tonight. Xavier doesn’t have the size to contend with the 6-foot-11, 255-pound center, who has proven to be trouble for most of his opponents this year. Soriano is averaging 16.4 points and 9.7 rebounds per game and is an extremely efficient scorer, shooting 63.5% from the field. 

While Xavier has several bodies it can throw at Soriano — senior forward Abou Ousmane being the most accomplished of the group — that didn’t prove effective in the first game. It was even worse for the Musketeers on the other end of the court, where the five bigs totaled just 12 points on 5 of 23 shooting. St. John’s owns the paint in this matchup.

That leaves it up to Xavier’s guards to make up the difference. Quincy Olivari (17.8 ppg), Desmond Claude (16.0 ppg), and Dayvion McKnight (11.4 ppg) have been the heart of this Musketeers team all season long. All three are legitimate scoring threats, with Olivari and McKnight also capable of stretching the defense from beyond the arc. 

But the Red Storm were able to prevent Xavier from getting anything going from deep in the first matchup, holding the Musketeers to just 4-for-21 from 3-point distance. Claude did pick up 21 points, but only went 4-for-11 from the field — hardly the kind of efficiency Xavier will need to contend with Soriano and St. John’s. 

While these teams are closely matched talent-wise, this looks like another tough matchup for Xavier against a quality opponent. St. John’s has answers for everything the Musketeers can throw at them, while also posing at least one problem Xavier may not be able to solve. I’m taking the Red Storm to win outright tonight.

My best bet: St. John's moneyline (+105 at Caesars)

St. John’s vs Xavier same-game parlay

St. John's moneyline

Joel Soriano Over 14.5 points

Joel Soriano Over 8.5 rebounds

33% boost available

+325 +432 at BetMGM

I like St. John’s to win this game outright largely because Soriano will dominate in the same way he did the first time he faced Xavier. That sets up a solid same-game parlay built around the Red Storm center.

To go along with our bet on St. John’s to win, let’s take the Over on two different Soriano props. His scoring total has been set at 14.5 while he’s also been given an Over/Under of 8.5 rebounds. These are both significantly below his season averages, and he should do better than average against the Musketeers.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

St. John’s vs Xavier spread and Over/Under analysis

Xavier opened tonight’s game as a slim one-point favorite. That line has moved slightly to Xavier -1.5 at most sites, with -110 offered on both sides across the board.

Both teams have played well against the spread this year, with Xavier posting a 12-7 ATS record and St. John’s going 11-9 ATS.

On paper, these teams are close to equals, so it makes sense to make the Musketeers a slight favorite at home. However, this simply isn’t a good matchup for Xavier, a team that has earned much of its clout by losing close to good teams. I see it coming up just short again against a Red Storm team that has one too many weapons for it to deal with. I love St. John’s on the moneyline tonight, but taking the Red Storm on the spread is also a good play.

The total opened at 154.5 points. The consensus Over/Under is now higher, with most books offering it at either 156.5 or 157 points flat. You can get -110 on either side at both numbers, though I also found -105 on the Under at 156.5 if you want to play that side at a slight discount.

St. John’s has gone a dead even 10-10 against the total this year. Xavier has played slightly above the number, with the Over holding an 11-8 edge.

While both teams like to play at a quick pace, the first game between these teams didn’t reflect that, as they combined for just 147 points. The Red Storm seem to be tightening things up as of late, hitting the Under in each of their last four games, and playing Under the 156.5 total in seven straight contests. I’m leaning towards the Under.

St. John’s vs Xavier betting trend to know

St. John’s is 4-2 straight up against Xavier in their last six meetings overall. Find more college basketball betting trends for St. John’s vs. Xavier.

St. John’s vs Xavier game info

St. John’s vs Xavier key injuries

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