The last time the Michigan Wolverines faced the Purdue Boilermakers, whatever could go wrong did go wrong.
Michigan coughed the ball up 22 times, translating into 29 points off turnovers for Purdue, and the Wolverines couldn’t throw a grape in the ocean from 3-point land, finishing 6-for-29 from distance. It all added up to a 91-64 ass-waxing, courtesy of the Boilermakers.
My Purdue vs. Michigan predictions are again backing the underdogs when these two programs clash tonight. Read more in my college basketball picks for Tuesday, February 11.
Purdue vs Michigan prediction
My best bet
Purdue moneyline (+105 at bet365)
My analysis
The Purdue Boilermakers came out swinging in their previous showdown against the Michigan Wolverines. That January 24 showdown saw Purdue begin on a 13-2 run, ultimately building a 29-point margin by halftime.
Boilermakers head coach Matt Painter doesn’t expect things to go that sideways for Michigan tonight, recognizing that his team caught the Wolverines on a bad night.
“You weren’t probably as good and they weren’t probably as bad, but just on that day,” Painter told the press. “It happens, where your shots go in and their shots don’t. But you’re pretty close to each other in terms of quality of the teams.”
While these rivals are bottlenecked atop the Big Ten standings, Purdue does feel like a class above UM. Just ask college hoops bettors.
The Boilermakers continue to surpass the oddsmakers’ expectations, having covered the spread in nine of their last 11 games. The Wolverines, on the other hand, haven’t met the bookies’ bar in seven straight games — despite owning a 5-2 SU mark in that span.
Michigan has recently run up against the bottom of the Big Ten, taking down the likes of Indiana, Oregon, Rutgers, Penn State, Northwestern, and Minnesota. Purdue has faced similar foes during its ATS streak but has also battled mid-tier teams like USC, Ohio State, and Nebraska.
This matchup is a clash in style, at least from the way these offenses do business. Michigan wants to push the tempo and get up a lot of shots early and often. Purdue is more plodding, ranked among the slower paces in the Big Ten and stretching possessions deep into the shot clock.
The first meeting was very misleading, due to the 22 turnovers from UM prompting plenty of fastbreak buckets from the Boilermakers. I expect tonight’s game to be much more controlled, with Purdue imposing its slower style on the Wolverines and working them in the halfcourt set.
That will keep this contest close — as the short spread would indicate — and leave little room for those extended scoring runs. Game projections all lean toward the Wolverines at home, but by very slim margins ranging from one to two points.
Given that, I look to a better Boilermakers side and a squad that’s been able to close out games with a strong second-half push.
Purdue ranks 28th in second-half scoring, averaging nearly 47 points in the final 20 minutes over its last three games. Meanwhile, Michigan starts fast ranking eighth in first-half scoring (40.9 points) — but fades down the stretch, averaging just 33.3 points in the second half over the same span.
Purdue vs Michigan same-game parlay (SGP)
Purdue moneyline
Danny Wolf 10+ rebounds
Braden Smith 15+ points
The Boilermakers can keep this close and find another gear in the final 20 minutes.
Purdue has problems on the glass and Wolf is projected for 9.8 rebounds.
Smith scorched UM for 24 points in the first meeting and is forecasted to flirt with 20 points tonight.
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Purdue vs Michigan odds
Purdue vs Michigan live odds
Purdue vs Michigan opening odds
- Spread: Purdue +2.5 (-110) | Michigan -2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Purdue +125 | Michigan -150
- Over/Under: Over 150 (-110) | Under 150 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Purdue vs Michigan betting trend to know
Purdue and Michigan have gone 17-8-1 Over/Under (67% Overs) in their last 26 head-to-head meetings. Find more college basketball betting trends for Purdue vs. Michigan.
How to watch Purdue vs Michigan
| Location | Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI |
| Date | Tuesday, 2-11-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Peacock |
Purdue vs Michigan key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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