The Xavier Musketeers and Providence Friars meet in a Big East affair this evening.
Xavier is hoping to build a tournament resume as we go into March but has lost two of three. As for Providence, the Friars have hit a significant roadblock with three straight losses in Big East play. My Xavier vs. Providence predictions are looking at Musketeers forward Zach Freemantle to pick up a couple of dimes instead of banking on either side to win.
Read on for my college basketball picks before this 8:00 p.m. tip on Wednesday, February 12th.
Xavier vs Providence prediction
My best bet
Zach Freemantle Over 1.5 assists (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
I'm not rushing to bet on two of the most disappointing teams in the Big East.
The Xavier Musketeers were a Final Four dark horse for some and have struggled for consistency all season. The Providence Friars have been very mediocre, making it hard to make a strong case for either team. Beyond that, from a projections standpoint, I'm more or less aligned. I'm headed to the prop market for my best.
Big man Zach Freemantle has a significant opportunity to be integral to the Xavier offense tonight. That's always the case for his scoring, but he should be able to impact the game through his passing here, too. That aspect of his game has ticked up over the last month. Four of his previous five games have seen the senior eclipse this number, and tonight's matchup may be the best of all.
Freemantle should thrive because of Providence's weakness. An assist rate of nearly 17% is merely a nice extra benefit.
You should expect a decent number of doubles on Freemantle tonight because Providence has been relatively lackluster at the rim defensively this season, ranking below the national average.
That's where they can get themselves in trouble. The Friars have allowed over a point per possession on plays defined as "pick and pops" and Freemantle is the main initiator of this offense. With such a small number to eclipse, he could get this assist number off that set alone, given that it's given so many issues to Providence this season.
Take Freemantle to rack up the assists tonight. This number is a full assist short, and I project that he hits this nearly 60% of the time.
Xavier vs Providence same-game parlay (SGP)
Zach Freemantle Over 1.5 assists
Jayden Pierre Over 3.5 assists
We're pairing another assists prop with our best bet because, yet again, it feels like a full assist is too short. Jayden Pierre has had 8, 5, and 6 assists, respectively, over his last three games. Despite the Friars' losing streak, he's gotten his offense going.
That should continue here. Providence will enjoy a multitude of offensive advantages against a pretty poor Xavier defense.
The most notable of these, relative to the handicap, is the Musketeers allowing over a point per possession on attack and kicks. Pierre is usually the primary driver of such sets.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Xavier vs Providence odds
Xavier vs Providence live odds
Xavier vs Providence opening odds
- Spread: Xavier -2 (-110) | Providence +2 (-110)
- Moneyline: Xavier -130 | Providence +110
- Over/Under: Over 148 (-110) | Under 148 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Xavier vs Providence betting trend to know
Xavier has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 22 of their last 34 games (+10.75 Units / 28% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Xavier vs. Providence.
How to watch Xavier vs Providence
| Location | Amica Mutual Pavillion, Province, RI |
| Date | Wednesday, 2-12-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Peacock |
Xavier vs Providence key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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