The Minnesota Timberwolves remain mired in a fight to get out of the Play-In Tournament in the Western Conference standings, but Anthony Edwards seems determined to find a way into the Top 6. The best shooter in the NBA this season has found another gear of late, and now he faces a short-handed Milwaukee Bucks defense.
My Bucks vs. Timberwolves predictions will indeed back Ant as he seeks his fourth straight 40-point game.
Here are my full NBA picks ahead of this tip that comes at 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday, February 12.
Bucks vs Timberwolves prediction
My best bet
Anthony Edwards 35+ points (+180 at bet365)
My analysis
Anthony Edwards’ point total prop is set at 30.5 with the Over at -115 at bet365. Four more points to reach this milestone are certainly worth the reward of 95 cents in price.
In Edwards’ last three games, he has scored 49, 41, and 44 points while shooting 46.3% from deep. To be fair, he has been shooting like that all season — only Edwards is taking more than eight 3-pointers per game (10) while hitting more than 42% of them. What has changed this week is his procession to the free throw line, making 17, 14, and 10 free throws in these three games, respectively, after averaging 4.3 made free throws in the first 49 games.
That shift may not be the most sustainable, though it warrants noting the Milwaukee Bucks ranked No. 16 in the last month in allowing 21.8 free-throw attempts per game.
The thought of those free throws trailing off scares this bet away from an even loftier milestone. If Edwards’ foul-drawing rate falls back toward usual, his 44 points on Monday in Cleveland could become a mere 35 tonight.
Do not expect it to fall that far. This month, Edwards has averaged 8.5 made free throws in 14 games. This emphasis has been around longer than a week. It has simply found another gear more recently.
Another emphasis that has been around longer than a week is the Minnesota Timberwolves' offensive rebounding. Since Jan. 12 — a date simply selected because we're all accustomed to thinking in month-long stretches — the Timberwolves have ranked No. 4 in the NBA by corralling 33.2% of available offensive rebounds. Before Jan. 12, that was No. 18 at 28.5%.
It is no coincidence that Minnesota’s offensive rating jumped to No. 6 (119.9) in the last month after sitting at No. 18 (111.3) to that point. It is also no coincidence that Edwards has averaged 33.4 points per game in the last month, up from 25.4 across his first 38.
At the risk of this handicap running long, Milwaukee’s lack of defense needs to be quickly acknowledged. Even before losing Giannis Antetokounmpo for at least a week, the Bucks defense was a problem, ranking No. 22 in rating in the last month at 117.6, down from No. 11 at 111.3 before then.
Losing Antetokounmpo exacerbates this issue. There was a reason Steph Curry scored 38 points on Monday in Milwaukee, and it was not only because he is Steph Curry. The Bucks have no quality perimeter defenders.
Curry went only 6-for-16 from deep. Ant is shooting better than Steph this year, as blasphemous as that sounds on the surface. And of note, Jimmy Butler went 12-for-15 from the line in that game. Edwards may combine both approaches to near 40 for a fourth straight game.
Bucks vs Timberwolves same-game parlay
Anthony Edwards 35+ points
Anthony Edwards 5+ threes
Timberwolves Team Total Over 115.5
The mistake made Monday was thinking Milwaukee could chase Steph Curry enough to force the Warriors’ offense to Jimmy Butler. The latter then fell half a point short of his points prop.
A backcourt of Damian Lillard, Andre Jackson, Gary Trent Jr. and AJ Green should not be expected to chase around any primary option. And the way Edwards is shooting this season, that should cost the Bucks dearly tonight.
Milwaukee’s entire defense is that weak right now. Brook Lopez can do only so much. A starting forward pairing of Taurean Prince and Kyle Kuzma creates its own liabilities. Just as Golden State cleared its Team Total against the Giannis-less Bucks on Monday, expect Minnesota to do so tonight.
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Bucks vs Timberwolves odds
Bucks vs Timberwolves live odds
Bucks vs Timberwolves opening odds
- Spread: Milwaukee -5.5 | Minnesota +5.5
- Moneyline: Milwaukee +185 | Minnesota -225
- Over/Under: Over 226 | Under 226
Odds courtesy of bet365
Bucks vs Timberwolves spread and Over/Under analysis
- Minnesota opened as a 5.5-point favorite early on Tuesday night, rising to -6 and then to -6.5 in Wednesday’s earliest hours.
- The total opened at 226 and fell overnight, valleying at 224.5 before settling at 225.
- Sunrise then knocked the total back down to 224.5.
- Consider that fall in the total a scoff at Milwaukee’s roster without Antetokounmpo. Adding Kyle Kuzma to a starting lineup does not move the needle.
Bucks vs Timberwolves trend
Milwaukee has gone 1-7 against the spread in its last eight, falling short of bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 9.9 points even when including the sole ATS success. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Timberwolves.
How to watch Bucks vs Timberwolves
| Location | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date | Wednesday, 2-12-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSN Wisconsin, FDSN North |
Bucks vs Timberwolves latest injuries
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