The new-look Miami Heat face the West’s top team at Paycom Center as the Oklahoma City Thunder look to sweep their season series tonight.
My Heat vs Thunder predictions expect Oklahoma City to cover a big spread at home against a struggling Miami team that won’t be able to match up on either end of the court.
Read my NBA picks to see why I’m taking the Thunder and the points on Wednesday, February 12.
Heat vs Thunder prediction
My best bet
Thunder -12.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
At 43-9, the Oklahoma City Thunder own the best record in the Association. Oklahoma City is set up beautifully to cover a double-digit spread at home against a visiting team still in flux in the post-Jimmy Butler era.
The Thunder are 31-17-3 against the spread as the favorite, good for second-best in the NBA, and the team is 13-4-3 against Eastern Conference opponents, good for fifth-best. The Miami Heat are just 10-17 ATS on the road and 9-13 as the underdog. They've covered 10 of 21 matchups against Western Conference opponents.
Oklahoma City has been favored by at least 10 points in 23 games this season, and the team has covered in 13 of them, including three of the last four. This is Miami’s first game as a double-digit dog this season, but the team went 3-5 ATS as underdogs of six points or more.
The Thunder sport a 15.9 point per game differential at home this season, more than two points better than Cleveland (13.2) and Memphis (11.3). Oklahoma City owns the best defensive rating in the Association.
Over the last five games, the Thunder sport the second-best offensive rating (127.6) and best defensive rating (104.8) to give the team a league-best 22.8 net rating. Miami owns the worst offensive rating in that span and the eighth-worst net rating at -6.8.
This is a clear talent mismatch, and the Heat are still trying to figure out how to adjust in the wake of the Butler to Golden State trade. To further bolster this pick, Tyler Herro and Jaime Jaquez Jr. are questionable, and being unavailable would hurt Miami’s chances of covering even more.
I’ll take the Thunder at -12.5 before the line moves again in favor of the home team.
Heat vs Thunder same-game parlay
Thunder -12.5
Under 218
Isaiah Hartenstein 10+ rebounds
Both teams have hit the Over in 27 games this season, but the Heat have struggled on offense, and Oklahoma City has been a lock-down defensive unit. It’s hard to see this one hitting the Over, even with a moderately low implied total.
The Heat are just 7-8 to the Under as road underdogs this season, and they’ve hit the Under in all six games as underdogs of seven points or more. I expect the Thunder’s defense to clamp down at home and limit Miami’s scoring.
Isaiah Hartenstein is averaging 12 rebounds per game this season, but his home/road splits are notable. He’s pulling down just 10.1 per game at home and 13.7 on the road. His rebounds line is set at 11.5, but I prefer it at 9.5 as a safer leg for this parlay. Hartenstein has corralled double-digit boards in 25 of 32 games, including nine of 15 at home. The Heat have allowed the fifth-most rebounds to opposing centers this season at 16 per game.
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Heat vs Thunder odds
Heat vs Thunder live odds
Heat vs Thunder opening odds
- Spread: Miami +12.5 (-110) | Oklahoma City -12.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Miami +500 | Oklahoma City -700
- Over/Under: Over 219 (-110) | Under 219 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Heat vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis
- Miami has covered in just three of its last 10 games.
- Oklahoma City is 5-1 ATS across its last six.
- The Heat have hit the Under in six of their last 10.
- The Thunder are 7-2-1 to the Over across their last 10 games.
Heat vs Thunder trend
The Oklahoma City Thunder have covered the Spread in 42 of their last 67 games (+17.80 Units / 24% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Thunder.
How to watch Heat vs Thunder
| Location | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date | Wednesday, 2-12-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSN Sun, FDSN Oklahoma |
Heat vs Thunder latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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