The No. 5 ranked Tennessee Volunteers head to Lexington to take on the No. 15 Kentucky Wildcats in SEC basketball action on Tuesday night.
Two weeks ago, the Wildcats handed the Volunteers a rare home loss, and my Tennessee vs. Kentucky predictions expect the Vols to get their revenge.
Here are my best free college basketball picks for this marquee matchup on February 11.
Tennessee vs Kentucky prediction
My best bet
Tennessee -2.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Kentucky Wildcats beat the Tennessee Volunteers 78-73 as 10.5-point road dogs when these teams tangled in Knoxville on January 28.
Despite that upset victory, the Wildcats are 2-4 straight up and against the spread in their last six games, including a pair of defeats at home against Arkansas and Alabama.
Since that home loss, the Volunteers have won three games in a row and are fresh off a 70-52 road victory against Oklahoma. Despite losing that previous meeting, the model at ShotQualityBets projected the Vols to win 87-71 based on the quality of shots they took and allowed.
The Wildcats shot 12-for-24 from downtown and 50% from inside the arc during that contest. Kentucky has a prolific offense, but since Tennessee is first in the country in 3-point defense (26.6%) and 10th in 2-point defense (44.2%), don't expect the Wildcats to shoot that well again.
This is an elite Vols squad that is first in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and has shut down Top-10 offenses like Auburn, Florida, and Baylor.
Meanwhile, the Vols went just 11-for-45 from deep (24%) in that previous meeting but missed plenty of open looks. The Wildcats are 90th in the country in adjusted defense and rank just 14th in the SEC in opponent eFG% (52.9%) during conference play.
Bet on the Vols to take advantage of that soft Kentucky defense and pull off the win on the road here.
Tennessee vs Kentucky same-game parlay (SGP)
Tennessee -2.5
Chaz Lanier Over 17.5 points
Zakai Zeigler Over 6.5 assists
The Wildcats play at a blazing-fast pace, and that, combined with their shaky defense, has led to them giving up a ton of points. They've allowed 82+ points to nine of 13 high-major foes since the start of December.
That has me betting on a big game from Tennessee's two best offensive players, Chaz Lanier and Zakai Zeigler. Lanier leads the Vols with 17.7 points per game, while Zeigler is fourth in the country with 7.5 assists per game.
Zeigler was also a big reason they lost the last meeting when he went just 1-for-11 from long range. He usually doesn't take anywhere near as many shots, and I expect him to get back to his pass-first mentality here. The point guard has dropped at least seven dimes in 17 of 23 games this season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Tennessee vs Kentucky odds
Tennessee vs Kentucky live odds
Tennessee vs Kentucky opening odds
- Spread: Tennessee -1.5 | Kentucky +1.5
- Moneyline: Tennessee -125 | Kentucky +105
- Over/Under: Over 149 | Under 149
Odds courtesy of bet365
Tennessee vs Kentucky betting trend to know
The visiting team is 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five meetings between these SEC rivals. Find more college basketball betting trends for Tennessee vs. Kentucky.
How to watch Tennessee vs Kentucky
| Location | Rupp Arena, Lexington, KY |
| Date | Tuesday, 2-11-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Tennessee vs Kentucky key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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