Conference foes Louisville and Stanford will face off in the third round of the ACC tournament on Thursday night.
Before last week, Louisville and Stanford had met twice in program history; now, they'll play for the second time in five days. In that one, we saw a relatively ugly affair in which the Cards had to win with their defense, holding the Cardinal to just 48 points and .69 points per possession en route to a 20-point win. Stanford has gotten off the mat since that game, and it happened last night when they knocked out their West Coast brethren, California, from the tournament in a closely fought game. Can they compete here? It's going to be tough sledding.
Read on for my Stanford vs. Louisville predictions and college basketball picks for Thursday, March 13.
Stanford vs Louisville prediction
Who will win Stanford vs Louisville?
Louisville will take care of business here. Of course, there's some weirdness surrounding this game, given the two teams just played a week ago. And, it's true, those conditions would make this game more ripe for an upset than regularly.
However, the Cardinals are hitting on all cylinders defensively right now (14th in defensive efficiency since February 1st), and that's an issue for Stanford, who ranks just 176th in offensive efficiency in that same period.
The less complicated version of this? Louisville is a significantly more well-rounded team.
My best bet: J'Vonne Hadley Over 1.5 assists (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
A starting point for any analysis of this game starts with Reyne Smith's availability. The senior Aussie sharpshooter missed Louisville's last game of the season against the Stanford team with a moderate ankle injury. The early indications seem that he'll give it up, but it's far from set in stone.
It's not only important because of the 40% shooting from deep that he's offered in conference play, it goes beyond that. The DNA of the entire Louisville Cardinals basketball team is entirely different, with or without him on the floor.
With Smith on the floor this season, Louisville has averaged 1.19 points per possession; without him, they've averaged 1.04. Without him on the floor, they almost eliminated the attack and kick from their offense and relied on dribble creation or attacking via the high post. Although it's contrary to popular opinion, he's made a minimal impact on the Cards' defense (they are actually better when he's on the floor). Either way, they've been elite by conference standards, allowing .94 with him on the floor and .95 without him. With that in mind, I grabbed the Under early this morning at 144.5, but it has since been steamed out of range. We're headed to the prop market for our best bet: J'Vonne Hadley Over 1.5 assists.
The unsung hero for this group has been Hadley. Seemingly, whatever role needs to be played in a given game, he plays it. He's also putting together a nice March. He'll come into the postseason averaging 10.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 2.3 assists, which is a pretty good embodiment of the utility role he's been able to play this season. We like him to hit that March average in assists here, something he's done in four straight games, including against this same team last week.
One of the reasons Louisville won last week and one of the reasons they've won this season is an absurdly good ability to find shooters after offensive rebounds. Last time out against the Stanford Cardinal, they were absurdly good at it, posting a 1.01 points per possession number off plays defined as rebounds & scrambles and getting shots off rebounds at a rate that would place them in the 100th percentile. This was aided by a 40-33 rebound advantage, of course, and since Hadley has been one of the primary rebounders on this team, he's been able to benefit from this aspect of the offense in the assist category.
I suspect he benefits again today. The impact of Reyne Smith playing or not isn't large on this prop, but it wouldn't be the worst thing to have another shooter out there for those kick-outs off the Hadley rebounds. I would play this to -134 and project a price of -142.
Stanford vs Louisville same-game parlay (SGP)
J'Vonne Hadley Over 1.5 assists
Maxime Raynaud Over 1.5 assists
It's an assist party; we're pairing Maxime Raynaud to go over his assist total with our best bet.
Louisville will throw a lot of different looks at the All-ACC man, just like they did last week. The problem for the Cardinals is he's shown the ability to pass out of those looks repeatedly. It's an area he's only improved at as the season has gone on. The Cardinals have also had a tendency to lose shooters in the corners when throwing doubles at versatile bigs.
I suspect he'll make Louisville play a few times tonight using his court vision, even if they defend him well.
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Stanford vs Louisville odds
Stanford vs Louisville live odds
Stanford vs Louisville opening odds
- Spread: Stanford +10.5 | Louisville -10.5
- Moneyline: Stanford +460 | Louisville -667
- Over/Under: Over 142.5 | Under 142.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Stanford vs Louisville betting trend to know
Louisville has hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 20 games (+20.25 Units / 25% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Stanford vs. Louisville.
How to watch Stanford vs Louisville
| Location | Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC |
| Date | Thursday, 3-13-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ACC Network |
Stanford vs Louisville key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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