The Texas Longhorns hit the road for a stern test in the SEC when it faces the Florida Gators.
My Texas vs. Florida predictions tell you why the Gators' offensive rebounding capabilities set up Alijah Martin for a big night from deep.
Read on for my college basketball picks for Saturday, January 18.
Texas vs Florida prediction
My best bet
Alijah Martin Over 2.5 threes (-105 at bet365)
My analysis
The most glaring advantage for either team in this game is the Florida Gators' ability to score on the backboard, specifically after they get those rebounds.
They come into this game ranking third nationally in college basketball in offensive rebounding. That highlights my best bet, but not in the way you may think.
Texas came into the season with a heavily lauded defensive unit. I could never quite agree with that assessment, but the Longhorns' defense has been solid, even amid a disappointing start. With that in mind, there's one area where Texas can and has struggled: kickouts after offensive rebounds.
The Horns have allowed over a point per possession on plays labeled "rebound and scrambles." Essentially, that's a shot that is an offensive rebound for the opposing team and ends up in a shot, usually kicked out for that team.
The numbers also support this issue. In the Tennessee loss, for example, the Vols had three more offensive rebounds than Texas and made double-digit threes.
Alijah Martin is the one best suited to benefit from these kickouts. The FAU transfer has been sensational from deep this season, shooting 45% on 31 attempts.
He's hit this number in two of the last four games, but that's insignificant given the volume he's getting up with at least seven attempts from distance in four of the previous five games. This sets up for him, particularly off second-chance points and just in the natural aspect of Florida's halfcourt offense.
Texas vs Florida same-game parlay (SGP)
Alijah Martin 3+ threes
Alex Condon Over 8.5 rebounds
There is a natural correlation here that isn't being priced in. If you followed the logic of our best bet, you'd understand why, and it's shown up time after time this season.
Alex Condon has collected double-digit rebounds in three of the four games he's played in 2025; here's how many threes Martin made in those games:
- Four against Arkansas
- Two against Tennessee (one of the best defenses in the country)
- Five against Kentucky
Given our best bet and Texas being between average and poor on the defensive glass, this is a natural pairing.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Texas vs Florida odds
Texas vs Florida live odds
Texas vs Florida opening odds
- Spread: Texas +11 | Florida -11
- Moneyline: Texas +390 | Florida -525
- Over/Under: Over 152.5 | Under 152.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Texas vs Florida betting trend to know
Florida has hit the first-half moneyline in 27 of their last 36 games (+13.75 Units / 1% ROI) Find more college basketball betting trends for Texas vs. Florida.
How to watch Texas vs Florida
| Location: | Stephen C. O'Connell Center, Gainesville, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, 1-18-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
Texas vs Florida key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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