USC vs UCLA Odds, Picks and Predictions: Trojans Invade Blue-Out

There’s a rivalry game on tap for Thursday night’s West Coast hoops action as USC (11-4) makes the short trip to Pauley Pavillion to face UCLA (13-2).

Andy Enfield’s Trojans are looking to right the ship after losing to a Washington State team that has just a 6-9 record. 

Doing so won’t be easy against No. 10 UCLA, which has won 10 consecutive games heading into Thursday’s crosstown rivalry. 

Will the Bruins add to their perfect 4-0 record in conference play?

Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for USC vs. UCLA on Thursday, January 5 to find out. 

USC vs UCLA best odds

USC vs UCLA picks and predictions

Thursday night will mark the annual “Blue Out” game in Pauley Pavillion, with fans all clad in blue. It should be a fun atmosphere as the Bruins look to continue a hot stretch that has seen them win 10 games in a row and move to 4-0 in Pac-12 play.

UCLA has been a profitable 9-6 ATS this season as the program continues to churn out impressive campaigns under Mick Cronin. Familiar faces in Jaimie Jaquez (17.2 ppg) and Tyger Campbell (13.6 ppg) lead the way, while Jaylen Clark (14.1 ppg) and Davis Singleton (10.6) are also averaging double figures. Freshmen Amari Bailey (9.5 ppg) and Adem Bona (8.0 ppg) have provided an influx of talent, which, in theory, raises this team’s ceiling from seasons past.

Enfield’s Trojans most recently split a road trip against the Washington schools, easily defeating Washington before falling by 10 points to an unimpressive Washington State. It’s worth pointing out that UCLA also was on the road in Washington for its two most recent games, beating Washington State by just one point before blowing out Washington. 

The Trojans only have two players in double figures — veterans Boogie Ellis (16.1 ppg) and Drew Peterson (14.0 ppg). The rest of the roster has a number of contributors but is still searching for high-impact tertiary scoring options. Big man Joshua Morgan’s 2.8 blocks per game stand out for what’s a tall, lengthy defense. 

While UCLA is undeniably the superior side, I believe this spread is a tad wide and will be placing a wager on the underdog. USC has faced one elite team this season in Tennessee and performed admirably in an overtime loss. In theory, its team length should help muddy up the game in an attempt to wall off the rim and jam up passing lanes. This line has come down from +12.5 at open to +11.5 at current at most locations, and I think that movement is wise. I’d play the Trojans down to +10. There’s still a +12.5 available at FanDuel, which I’m grabbing before it's gone.

My best bet: USC +12.5 (-118 at FanDuel)

USC vs UCLA spread analysis

KenPom’s ratings do show a wide gulf between these two teams. UCLA checks in at No. 3 overall, ranking seventh in both offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency. This is a well-rounded team that’s elite on both ends of the court. USC, meanwhile, checks in at No. 67 overall, ranking 74th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 69th in adjusted defensive efficiency. 

The Trojans have been performing up to their competition, going 5-1 ATS in their last six games against a team with a winning percentage above .600. They’ve also been road warriors against the spread in tough situations, posting a 10-3 ATS record in their last 13 road games against a team with a winning home record. 

Looking back at the series history, the underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. Sweating the underdog in a rivalry game can be enticing, and that’s especially true when the spread is over double digits. 

UCLA is the superior side, but the bookmakers know that and have established the red-hot Bruins as huge favorites. Having won 10 straight, it’ll be difficult for bettors to play against Cronin’s squad. USC is tough to back, considering it lost by 10 to a struggling Washington State team the last time out, but sometimes the most difficult bets to make are the ones that turn out to be winners. 

USC vs UCLA Over/Under analysis

The total is set at 140.5 at most locations, although a flat 140 is also available in the market. As always, be sure to shop around. 

This will be a stiff test for USC’s defense. The Trojans are limiting opponents to just 38.2% shooting from the field, good for 17th nationally. Morgan leads the block party, as USC ranks 12th nationally with 5.7 blocks per game. 

UCLA is an elite offense, averaging 79 ppg on 48.8% shooting from the field. With veteran players littered throughout the lineup, the Bruins excel at moving the ball to find the right look. The Bruins are proficient in shooting both inside the arc (24.9 2-point field goals per game, fourth nationally) and behind it (37.2% from 3-point range, 59th nationally). 

The Bruins will be shorthanded on Thursday without the services of freshman Amari Bailey, who is experiencing discomfort in his left foot. Bailey averages 9.5 ppg as a key contributor and the offense has already stalled out once in his absence (67 points against Washington State). 

USC shoots just 32.3% behind the arc and will look to force looks down low, where it ranks 20th nationally in near-proximity shooting percentage according to Haslametrics.com. Those shots may be hard to come by against a stingy UCLA defense that ranks 28th in near-proximity defense. The Bruins are allowing just 61 ppg overall. 

I’m inclined to take the Under in this spot given my handicap for both teams. 

USC vs UCLA betting trend to know

USC is 5-1 ATS in its last six games against a team with a winning percentage above .600. Find more college basketball betting trends for USC vs. UCLA.

USC vs UCLA game info

USC vs UCLA key injuries

Pages related to this topic