The night cap of the quarterfinal round of the 2023 SEC Tournament will see the No. 6 seeded Vanderbilt Commodores face off with the No. 3 seeded Kentucky Wildcats.
Vanderbilt dominated LSU on Thursday night with an impressive 77-68 win. Meanwhile, Kentucky finished the regular season at 21-10 overall and 12-6 in SEC play, including wins in five of their final six games.
Will the Commodores be able to pull off another upset win without their best player? Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky to find out.
Vanderbilt vs Kentucky best odds
Vanderbilt vs Kentucky picks and predictions
Vanderbilt was expected to get dominated on the glass against LSU, but it more than held its own. It matched LSU with 42 rebounds apiece and recorded eight blocks down low. Quentin Millora-Brown stepped up big time for the injured Liam Robbins with five rebounds and five blocks.
Jordan Wright also pitched in from his guard position to snag a career high 15 rebounds. The Commodores will need similar performances going up against the best rebounder in the country in Oscar Tshiebwe for Kentucky. Oscar put up 16.5 rebounds per contest in the two matchups this season.
These two programs split the season series with both teams winning on the road. The Wildcats dominated the glass and held Vandy to a bad field goal percentage in both games. The Commodores shot 32.7% from the field at home and 40.3% from the field on the road. They also shot a combined 25 free throws, five less than they attempted just last night.
Kentucky is going to win the rebound battle, Oscar is going to get his down low, and the Wildcats will limit Vandy’s chances to score from the free throw line. The big question for the Wildcats will be their health. Both Cason Wallace and C.J. Fredrick are questionable with injuries and Sahvir Wheeler is out.
The good news for Kentucky is that both Wallace and Fredrick practiced recently and are expected to be available tonight. Wallace had 10 points and five rebounds while Fredrick had 10 points and five assists in the first matchup at Vanderbilt. They both aggravated injuries in the home loss to the Commodores.
The Wildcats shot a terrible 3-for-19 from downtown in their two point loss at home to Vanderbilt this year. If they shoot even slightly better, they win that game. Regardless of shooting, their defense will show up tonight and limit Vanderbilt to below 65 points. I like Kentucky to win and cover its first SEC Tournament game since defeating the Commodores last year in the quarterfinals.
My best bet: Kentucky -8.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
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Vanderbilt vs Kentucky spread analysis
Kentucky went 1-2 in neutral site games this season, losing to Michigan State and UCLA while beating Michigan. It also went 6-4 in true road games this season, including impressive wins over Tennessee and Arkansas. The Wildcats also defeated this Vanderbilt squad in the same city, but different arena. This time Kentucky will have the home crowd.
The Wildcats have climbed all the way up to 22 in the most recent KenPom rankings and 21 in the NET rankings after an abysmal start to the season. They rank 14th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 66th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Vandy ranks 23rd and 165th in those same two categories.
The Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall and 5-1 ATS in their last six games against a team with a winning straight up record. They are also 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win.
Kentucky has not necessarily shown a ton of consistency this season, but it seems to have found its stride down the stretch of the regular season. Oscar has been great, but so has Antonio Reeves, who is coming off 37-point performance against Arkansas.
Vanderbilt vs Kentucky Over/Under analysis
Both matchups this season between these two programs were low scoring despite some decently high totals. The game in Vanderbilt totaled 122 points, well Under the 142.5 total. The game at Kentucky totaled 134 points, also well Under the 145.5 total.
The Under is 6-1 in the Commodores last seven games against a team with a winning percentage above .600. Also, the Under is 10-4 in the Wildcats last 14 games against a team with a winning straight up record.
Once again, this total is a little high for how each of the previous two games have played out. If you go strictly off averages, then I can understand expecting these two teams to play high scoring games. However, that is just not the case and I once again like the Under.
Vanderbilt vs Kentucky betting trend to know
The Wildcats are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win. Find more college basketball betting trends for Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky.
Vanderbilt vs Kentucky game info
| Conference: | SEC Quarterfinals |
| Location: | Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN |
| Date: | Friday, March 10, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SEC Network |
