The ACC used to be able to argue it was the second-best conference in college football. Thanks largely to Clemson’s four title appearances in five years, including two national championships, the ACC could sincerely argue it had a hand in regularly crowning the national champion.
Since 2019, and with no help from last year’s College Football Playoff selection committee, the ACC has not sniffed a title game. At this point, it's the singular Power Four conference closest to imploding, even if that worry is likely at least a few years away if not a full dozen.
Below, I break down the college football odds and what to expect from the ACC in 2024.
ACC predictions for 2024
- Clemson to win ACC (+370)
- Louisville Under 8 wins (+105)
- Notre Dame to make the Playoff (-160)
- Best Heisman bet: Jadyn Ott (+50,000)
Click on each pick to read full analysis.
Odds to win the ACC
| Team |  |
|---|---|
 Florida State Seminoles |
+300 |
 Clemson Tigers |
+370 |
 Miami Hurricanes |
+440 |
 NC State Wolfpack |
+600 |
Odds as of 8-15.
| Team | |
|---|---|
 Louisville Cardinals |
+850 |
 Virginia Tech Hokies |
+1,000 |
 SMU Mustangs |
+1,200 |
 UNC Tar Heels |
+3,600 |
Odds as of 8-15.
| Team | |
|---|---|
 Syracuse Orange |
+6,000 |
 California Golden Bears |
+8,500 |
 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets |
+10,000 |
 Pittsburgh Panthers |
+12,000 |
 Duke Blue Devils |
+15,000 |
Odds as of 8-15.
ACC's disgruntled powers
The reasons for any existential dread about the ACC’s future will largely sit atop this year’s football standings.
More than any other of the ACC’s now 17 programs — 17.5 if counting Notre Dame’s partial membership — the Florida State Seminoles want out of the conference. Now is their time to yell loudest, coming off last year’s 13-0 record and subsequent Playoff snub, now sitting atop the ACC championship odds board as a favorite to defend their conference title.
All pieces of that narrative will gain steam when Florida State hosts Cal in its first ACC game and then again when the Seminoles head to SMU a week later to end September. No one team faces all three ACC newcomers, including Stanford, presumably an intentional choice by ACC schedule-makers to lessen the travel burdens.
That's the risk a conference takes when it expands, quite literally, from sea to shining sea. Call it A Coastal Conference.
The favorites: Florida State's revenge?
If college football purists should cheer for any narrative in 2024, it would be Florida State rattling off another 13-0 season and landing a Top-4 seed in the first-ever 12-team Playoff.
It would be partial justice after a perfect season a year ago was not enough to warrant inclusion to the four-team Playoff because committee members deemed themselves the appropriate evaluators for a dropoff in quarterback talent caused by injury.
The problem with that wanted narrative is, simply, the Seminoles are replacing far too much from a season ago.
Their only returning offensive starters are along the offensive line, and while DJ Uiagalelei looked better at Oregon State, he's rarely looked like a Playoff-contending quarterback. Similarly, reloading with transfers along the defensive line may work for a while, but one of these seasons, head coach Mike Norvell will strike out.
Combining that possible dropoff with a trip to Miami in late October has juiced the hype around the Hurricanes, even if they're still coached by Mario Cristobal. However, a theme emerges: Miami has bet heavily on defensive transfers, and any misstep could prove costly in the ACC, which may have a more competitive top half than broadly anticipated.
The Miami Hurricanes’ defensive backfield, in particular, should cause enough worry to scare off anyone from that possible ACC future. One inevitable bad day could knock Miami too far back in the ACC standings.
The rest of the field
The middle tier of the ACC demands attention because of the varied scheduling difficulties created by a bloated conference. A year ago, in only a 14-team league, Louisville used such an edge to reach the ACC title game, going 7-1 in conference play in the regular season despite, quite frankly, being only slightly above average.
The Louisville Cardinals will return to Earth this season in part because they face three of the ACC’s four best teams and in part because they lack the receivers to run Jeff Brohm’s usual style of offense.
However, the SMU Mustangs should enjoy such scheduling breaks this season, creating some intrigue on an ACC future available as high as +1,200 at BetMGM. The Mustangs host the Seminoles and otherwise avoid the true ACC contenders. They face four of the five expected bottomfeeders and end the season with a winnable home game against Cal.
SMU may have offensive line worries, but its imposing defensive ends will create a corresponding margin of error. The roster is not quite Power Four-ready, but it's closer to it than anyone else making the move up in recent years.
Much of that same logic could apply to the Virginia Tech Hokies, led by a delight of a quarterback in Kyren Drones, except the Hokies face both Miami and Clemson, and that schedule edge alone shines value on SMU at +1,200.
Pick to win the ACC: Clemson (+370 at BetRivers)
The scheduling matrix is not the sexiest reason to make a futures bet, but it should always be heavily considered and often can be the determining factor.
Of the three teams with clearly more talented rosters than the rest of the ACC, only the Clemson Tigers have to face just one of the other two, heading to Tallahassee on Oct. 5. Just as notably, the Tigers play four of the five least talented rosters.
Clemson should have an inside track to the ACC title game. It returns far more of its production than Florida State (67.7% to 56.4%), a reality that should trip up the Seminoles at some point.
And if the Tigers face the Hurricanes in the ACC title game, the coaching edge alone should provide faith in Clemson. For all of Dabo Swinney’s flaws in roster management nine months of the year, he still consistently has a better team in December than he did in September.
Which may be a reason to not make this bet just yet. The Tigers open against Georgia and Appalachian State. Losing the latter would be a notable upset, but it's quite possible Clemson gets blown out on Labor Day weekend and then looks merely competent against the Mountaineers. These odds could irrationally rise at that point before the Tigers have played a single ACC game.
It's a thought worth considering if believing in Swinney enough to believe in Clemson yet again in 2024.
ACC best bets for 2024
Louisville Under 8 wins
Odds: +105 at BetMGM
First of all, most of the market has this win total set at 8.5 with the Under heavily juiced, its lowest number being -150 at Caesars. Risking a push is worth those 50 cents.
Secondly, Louisville was a mirage a year ago. Smoke and mirrors got the Cardinals to 10-1 before losing three straight games to end the season, three games in which Louisville was twice favored by a touchdown and once a 1-point underdog.
Those 10 wins needed things like Georgia Tech collapsing in the second half of the season opener, two Cardinals field goals off short fields providing the difference. It needed Indiana to fail to score more than 14 points a couple of weeks later.
Opposing defensive lapses led to Louisville's big plays all season, hiding the fact the Cardinals could not sustain drives. Heading into conference championship weekend, Louisville’s offense ranked exactly average in the country with 3.58 points per quality drive.
Now the Cardinals return only two starting offensive linemen and little else on offense. Brohm’s design will struggle more than it did a year ago and logic says the breaks will not all fall its way again.
Louisville should be favored in seven games this season, but this fugazi scheme will need to win each of those as well as two upsets to ruin this Under bet.
Notre Dame to make the Playoff
Odds: -160 at DraftKings
If there's anywhere to include a Notre Dame best bet, it's within this ACC preview. Approaching the Irish via the “make the Playoff” market is the more prudent choice compared to attacking their win total of Over 10 (-110 at Circa Sports) or Over 10.5 (+145 at BetMGM).
This market provides for a likely profit at 10-2, where that lesser win total would push, and leaves open an avenue to profit even at 9-3, though an unlikely one.
Currently, Notre Dame is a 1.5-point underdog at Texas A&M in the season opener. The Irish will be favored outright in their other 11 games, the closest spread undoubtedly coming against Florida State on Nov. 9. If that were the season opener, Notre Dame would be a 6- or 6.5-point favorite, partly thanks to home-field advantage.
The Irish have some things to figure out. Most notably, both their offensive tackles may be points of worry. If thinking about backing A&M, that's the reason to do it, trusting the Aggies’ defensive ends to enjoy their Saturday night on Aug 31.
And if holding that A&M faith with conviction, there's logic to waiting until Notre Dame is 0-1 to place this bet, anticipating better odds after that Irish loss. Either way, Notre Dame will then have at least three weeks and perhaps two full months to steady that offensive line, and given Irish recruiting, that steadiness should be assumed in time.
This favorable schedule sets a floor for Notre Dame of 9-3, and that would be a genuine debacle. Most likely, this will be one of the: best defenses in the country in Al Golden’s third year as defensive coordinator, and the Irish will finish 10-2 or 11-1. Either record should warrant a Playoff berth in the 12-team era.
Best Heisman Trophy bet for the ACC
Jadyn Ott, RB, Cal Golden Bears
Odds: +50,000 at Circa Sports
The market does not exist, but if it was possible to bet “The Heisman winner will not come from the ACC,” it would be a prudent bet. One of two things is necessary to win the Heisman nowadays: either be the primary piece of offense for a national title contender or enjoy prodigious stats a la Lamar Jackson or Jayden Daniels.
Every ACC possibility in those regards has ruinous flaws: Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik (+5,000 at DraftKings) is lacking for receivers; Florida State quarterback DJ Uiagalelei (+4,000) has never shown a consistent throwing knack; Miami quarterback Cam Ward (+2,200) is both prone to turnovers and coached by Mario Cristobal.
Perhaps Virginia Tech quarterback Kyren Drones (+9,000) or SMU quarterback Preston Stone (+15,000) stars on the way to the ACC Championship Game, but would losing that game and missing the Playoff doom any Heisman hopes? Most likely.
That said, Stone at 150/1 does draw some attention, having thrown for 3,197 yards and 28 touchdowns last year. The downside of SMU's advantageous schedule is Stone will lack primetime TV moments in October and November.
There is, however, a slim chance that Cal running back Jadyn Ott demands national attention. The junior has averaged 5.3 yards on more than 400 carries in his career and accounted for 25 total touchdowns. He could, if Bears offensive coordinator Mike Bloesch so wanted, average 200 yards per game into October.
Cal will not be good this season. Not good enough to deserve a Heisman contender, but the Bears somehow kept Ott on campus for a third year. With Florida State’s and Miami’s defensive lines both in flux, Ott could have a Heisman-worthy moment by gashing them each on Sept. 21 and Oct. 5, respectively. He has the talent to do so, and it would bring heightened attention.
ACC stat to know
In the last six seasons, exactly one ACC team would have made a hypothetical 12-team College Football Playoff as an at-large team, No. 4 Notre Dame in the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign when the Irish joined the ACC as a full-fledged member for one season.
Based on FanDuel’s “Make the Playoff” odds of Florida State (+160), Clemson (+200), and Miami (+210), sportsbooks expect that trend to continue in 2024.
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