Air Force vs Army Odds, Picks and Predictions: Army Works the Clock to Pull Off Upset

Death, taxes, and service-academy matchup Unders, right? As the Air Force Falcons head to face the Army Black Knights, the applicable Unders trend should be cited in the first paragraph. Since 2005, the Unders in games between two of the academies have gone 42-9-1. To save you the math, that’s an Under hitting 82.4% of the time when these triple-option offenses square off.

Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Air Force vs Army on November 5.

Air Force vs Army best odds

Air Force vs Army picks and predictions

Covers editorial policy might require this best bet to be on the Under. If so, it would be understandable. That service-academy Unders trend is not a fluke. Seventeen years of any trend is obviously more than a fluke, and this is one with some logic behind it.

These defenses practice against the triple option more than any other defense in the country. Any time their first-string offense faces the first-string defense, the latter gets practice for this game. Meanwhile, analytics — how most betting lines are set these days — have a floor when they calculate totals. Even Iowa games cannot dive low enough. The math simply finds a lower limit, even if it shouldn’t.

Thus, 42 Unders in 52 chances.

But the best bet should be on the wager with the most value, no matter what corporate policy might mandate in this game three times a year. And the best value here is on Army, though some of the logic ties to that Under. The Knights are touchdown underdogs, but let’s skip past that spread and charge toward greater value.

A game with a total below six touchdowns between rivals with genuine disdain for each other can readily turn sideways. Air Force may be better than Army, but it is not magnitudes better, and this recipe creates a smaller margin for error.

Yet, the Knights winning pays out better than 2-to-1.

Therein lies the value. Obviously, a value bet like this will fail more often than it succeeds, but even that has not been true in this matchup of late. Army has won its last two meetings — an underdog in both — and last year even a 9.5-point underdog. The Knights have covered three straight games, an underdog in all of them.

Army head coach Jeff Monken slows this game down more than his counterpart, Troy Calhoun does, and he thus forces the Falcons into a game they do not want. Much like Bane was born into the dark, molded by it, Army relishes a low-scoring slugfest, while Air Force merely adopted it.

Since Monken took over at West Point in 2014, the Knights have averaged fewer than 30 points per game in five of nine seasons, including 28.5 in 2019 and 26.8 in 2020. In that same stretch, the Falcons have averaged fewer than 30 points only in the altered year of 2020.

These Unders are reliable, to an extent that would anyone really be surprised if corporate overlords altered employment status because a handicapper went away from that trend? But their other effect is to create tighter games, ones in which any spread of a touchdown or more should be doubted with such aggressiveness that the accompanying plus-money line holds all attention.

My best bet: Army moneyline (+230 at BetMGM)

Air Force vs Army spread analysis

Do the math. A total of only 40 points will make it difficult to imagine Air Force winning by more than a touchdown. The last four games in this matchup have been decided by a total of 17 points.

The sheer rarity of possessions cuts into the chances of a multiple-possession win. In the last four meetings between these two, each team has averaged 8.25 possessions per game.

Neither team will score on every possession: the defenses are too used to facing this frustrating offense for that. The slightest additional misstep from the favorite will create a ripe cover opportunity for the underdog.

Air Force vs Army Over/Under analysis

Someday the sportsbooks will learn, probably. Until then, it is not really their fault. As mentioned before, the math bookmakers rely on sets something of a lower limit on a total. It has to be manually adjusted for these triple-option offenses facing each other, and dialing it down too far boggles the analytical mind, even if it leans into common sense.

They opened this number at 40.5 this week, and for once it may have been in the right range, considering it was bet down to 38.5 on Monday morning and then bounced back up to 39.5 that afternoon.

Sharp bettors and their numbers also set a lower limit on this total, no matter what history might say.

Air Force vs Army betting trend to know

The Under has gone 8-0 in the last eight meetings between these two, part of the longer trend of the Under going 42-9-1 in the last 52 head-to-head service-academy matchups. Find more NCAA betting trends for Air Force vs. Army.

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