Taking the Under in Service Academy showdowns is a time-honored tradition, but this ain’t your grandma’s Service Academy matchup as the Air Force Falcons vs. Army Black Knights has an added wrinkle.
The Black Knights and Navy Midshipmen actually have competent offenses for once, but the Falcons, umm, don't. So, we're getting an unusually high total today.
My Air Force vs. Army predictions are protecting against a second-half explosion, and highlighting my best college football picks for today's Service Academy clash, scheduled for noon ET at Michie Stadium in West Point, and broadcast on CBS.
Air Force vs Army prediction and best bet
My best bet
Under 21.5 first-half total (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
For the uninitiated. The Under is 44-10-1 (81.5%) in the last 55 meetings between Service Academy programs.
What has made the Service Academy Under trend so successful over the years, in the simplest form, is that all three teams run a form of the triple option and run the ball around 80% of the time, which is constantly milking the clock. At the same time, these programs know how best to defend those plays, resulting in a lot of short runs.
On top of that, sportsbooks were almost unable to set totals low enough for these matchups to achieve a balanced amount of action on both sides.
Now, there has been a major variable added to the mix in 2024, and that is the explosive nature of the Army and Navy passing offenses. While both of these programs still run the ball more than anyone in the country, when they are throwing the ball, they are hucking it down the field. Army ranks first in the country in EPA/dropback while Navy ranks eighth.
We saw that in Navy’s 34-7 win over Air Force back on Oct. 5 in a game that went Over the closing total of 37.5.
The other variable is that Air Force looks like one of the worst teams in the country, ranking 125th in EPA margin. The combination of these variables means we are seeing the highest total in a Service Academy matchup since 2020.
The total for this weekend's matchup between Air Force and Army is sitting at 41.5 as of Thursday afternoon.
Now, Army has a chance to take this game over by itself, but I still believe the style of this matchup suggests we will see another Under.
Even though Air Force gave up 34 points to Navy back in that Oct. 5 meeting, two of those Navy scores came on unlikely explosive plays. One on a fourth down reverse where the Falcons defender just needed to contain. Instead, it was a touchdown. Then, another touchdown was set up by an incredible sideline catch, and the game still needed a TD midway through the fourth to go Over.
On top of that, Air Force probably won’t do much scoring considering the Falcons rank 127th in EPA/play and 122nd in offensive success rate going against an Army defense that has limited opponents to 14 points or fewer in six of its seven games.
That said, Army’s offense does scare me a bit here because Bryson Daily and Co. have been awesome. So, I’m going to change it up a bit and take the first-half Under.
Air Force will be able to put up a fight for a while, but the longer the game goes, the more chances Army’s offense has to strike and potentially send this game Over.
(Give us a total of 50 for Army-Navy!)
Air Force vs Army same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 21.5 first-half total
Casey Reynolds anytime TD
Air Force team total Under 9.5
Daily has been so awesome this season that BetMGM isn’t giving us an anytime touchdown option for the Black Knights quarterback in this Service Academy matchup. In fact, they aren’t giving us anytime touchdown potions for Daily, top running back Kanye Udoh, or super utility back Noah Short.
Instead, I’ll look at the Black Knights’ top receiving threat, Casey Reynolds. The 6-foot-2 burner is the definition of a deep threat, averaging 29.3 yards per reception. He’s scored three times this season and looks like the best bet among those available to find the end zone in this matchup.
Meanwhile, the Falcons have a young offensive line, which doesn’t work well when running a triple option, and that has been apparent. Air Force is rushing for just 3.7 yards per carry this season which ranks 100th in the country. As a result, the Falcons have topped 20 points just once against FBS opponents this season and have been held to seven points or fewer three times. Add Air Force Under 9.5 team total to this SGP.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Air Force vs Army odds
Air Force vs Army live odds
Air Force vs Army opening odds
- Air Force vs. Army spread: Army -23.5
- Air Force vs. Army moneyline: Air Force +1,600, Army -5,000
- Air Force vs. Army Over/Under: 40
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Air Force vs Army spread and Over/Under analysis
- Army opened as a 23.5-point favorite but Air Force has seen the early action with the spread coming down to 22.5.
- The general rule of thumb in sports betting is that you take the underdog with a total this low and we could be seeing that here. The underdog has covered the spread in this matchup eight straight times with the largest spread being Army as 18-point pups last season.
- The total hit the board at an even 40 and it was the Over that saw the early money, taking the number as high as 42 before some Under money has brought it back down to 41.5.
- The last time we saw a total higher than 40 in this matchup was back in 2020 when it closed at 47.5.
Air Force vs Army betting trend to know
The Under is 10-0 in the last 10 meetings between Air Force and Army. Find more college football betting trends for Air Force vs Army.
Air Force vs Army game info
| Location: | Michie Stadium, West Point, NY |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-2, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
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