No spread is big enough to reduce the Iron Bowl to a non-event, especially in odd years. Alabama playing at Jordan-Hare Stadium has produced too many memorable and iconic moments in the last decade to believe it will be an ordinary Saturday afternoon at Auburn.
That said, a spread of almost three touchdowns illustrates the differences between these two programs right now, one going through the motions in a season that could fall short of a bowl game and the other making a case as the first two-loss team in the College Football Playoff.
Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Alabama at Auburn on November 27, with kickoff set for 3:30 p.m. ET.
Alabama vs Auburn odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Alabama opened as a 19.5-point favorite on Sunday, and even when Auburn quarterback Bo Nix was ruled out early in the week with a broken ankle, this line held steady until moving to -20.5 on Thursday. Nix’s injury also did not depress the total, which moved up to 57.5 points on Thursday after opening at 54.5 to start the week.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.
Alabama vs Auburn predictions
Predictions made on 11/26/2021 at 5:35 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Alabama vs Auburn game info
• Location: Jordan-Hare Stadium , Auburn, AL
• Date: Saturday, November 27, 2021
• Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
Alabama vs Auburn betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key injuries
Alabama: Keanu Koht LB (Questionable), Roydell Williams RB (Out), JoJo Earle WR (Out), Camar Wheaton RB (Out), Jase McClellan RB (Out).
Auburn: Bo Nix QB (Out), Kobe Hudson WR (Out), Tar’Varish Dawson WR (Out), Anders Carlson K (Out).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four Iron Bowls. Find more NCAA betting trends for Alabama vs. Auburn.
Alabama vs Auburn picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
No one will have any trouble getting up for this game. It is the Iron Bowl, after all. Alabama quarterback Bryce Young spent part of a press conference this week discussing how he could sense the vitriol of the in-state rivalry simply on a trip to Wal-Mart. The California native did not realize the gravity this matchup very much held.
Furthermore, Alabama is chasing a Playoff spot while Auburn is looking to reach a bowl game in Bryan Harsin’s debut season, needing a win this weekend to be bowl eligible. But the Eagles could be 0-11 and they would still find the needed juice when facing the Tide.
Intangibles such as “getting up” or “juice” or just general “vibes” are best applied to defensive lines. Good defensive lines do not need to focus too much on scheme — though they certainly still do, to some extent. They can simply pin their ears back and get after the offensive backfield.
Auburn has a good defensive line. Just as pertinently, Alabama has a suspect offensive line.
The Eagles have 28 sacks this season, including six in their last two games Furthermore, the defense averages 7.36 tackles for loss per game. Meanwhile, the Tide have given up 28 sacks this year, part of giving up 6.73 tackles for loss per game.
That offensive front is a weakness for Auburn to exploit, and perhaps it serves as an explanation as to why Alabama has had such difficulty pulling away from opponents. A few times a game, a drive simply gets short-circuited behind the line of scrimmage. When trying to cover large spreads, losing a few drives like that will cost the needed edge.
Any concern over the Eagles’ passing game without Nix should be dismissed, as overly-anxious. Sophomore quarterback T.J. Finley has seen a decent amount of action, appearing in seven games this year, averaging 7.1 yards per attempt with three touchdowns and no interceptions. His appearances have not been strictly garbage time; Nix’s gunslinger approach has often forced Harsin to turn to Finley for calm.
If Finley plays the role of unexpected hero and Auburn’s defensive line rises to the task, not to mention the always-present yet unseen forces of Jordan-Hare Stadium, the Eagles might not even need the backdoor to get this cover.
Prediction: Auburn +20.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
That struggling offensive line has kept Alabama’s explosions a bit more check this year than usual. That is not a comparison to 2020’s generational offense, but rather one to the years that preceded it. The Tide are not even averaging 40 points against Power Five opponents this year. Clearly, this is a disappointing team.
That sarcasm aside, Alabama cannot simply blow past every opponent, a reality especially true in a rivalry game that once inspired such passion as to lead to arbor-cide.
But, Auburn’s offense has never fired on all cylinders this year, even when Nix’s big-risk, big-reward style begat mostly rewards. Remove the first two weeks of the season, when the Eagles poured in 60 points against Akron’s sieve and then 62 against FCS-level Alabama State, and Auburn has averaged only 23.4 points per game this year.
Calling this a defensive slugfest would be a mistake, but neither of these offenses should inspire high praise, either.
Prediction: Under 57.5 (-110)
Best bet
Weird things happen in rivalry games. Weirder things happen in the Iron Bowl. The weirdest things happen at Jordan-Hare Stadium.
Those oddities usually happen late, when tensions are highest, 18- to 22-year-olds are most stressed, and the moon shines brightest. Handicapping miracles at Auburn is a task meant for only time travelers and Nostradamus reincarnated.
I am neither, nor are you.
Focusing on the first half removes that risk from this handicap. With that in mind, turning back to what used to be the most reliable bet in college football feels prudent. The Tide will not need to get out to that quick of a start to cover a halftime spread of only 11 points.
After that cashes, pocket the winnings and enjoy whatever natural anomaly unfolds in college football’s best rivalry.
Pick: Alabama First Half -11.0 (-105)
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