The Appalachian State Mountaineers and reigning Sun Belt Conference champion Troy Trojans square off this afternoon in the Sun Belt Conference Championship game, and this matchup should be a dandy.
Appalachian State has reeled off five consecutive victories since ending a mid-season two-game losing streak, while Troy has won nine straight games. The Trojans are playing at home, and the college football odds make Troy the favorite to secure another Sun Belt championship.
Join me as I break this game down and give my best free college football picks for Appalachian State vs. Troy for the Sun Belt Conference Championship on December 2.
Appalachian State vs Troy best odds
Appalachian State vs Troy picks and predictions
The Sun Belt Conference is one of the best non-Power 5 groups in the nation. Appalachian State is replacing ineligible James Madison, and along with Troy, will represent the conference well when they meet on Saturday.
Appalachian State has a history of pulling off big away upsets. In 2007, they defeated No. 5 Michigan in Ann Arbor, and in 2022, they knocked off No. 6 Texas A&M in a 17-14 slugfest.
Those were “David vs. Goliath” matchups against teams with great defenses. Saturday afternoon won’t be any David vs. Goliath matchup, but two equals whom the Mountaineers have defeated five consecutive times and twice at Troy since 2018.
App State covered the spread in all three away games this season as an underdog. It's done so with the 46th-best rushing game, led by running back Nate Noel, alongside an improving passing game headmanned by junior quarterback Joey Aguilar.
Aguilar has thrown 33 touchdowns this season. Seven Mountaineers have 200+ receiving yards, and Noel has scampered for 787 yards despite missing Week 13. Kanye Roberts rushed for 109 yards against Georgia Southern, so App State is more than okay if its star running back doesn’t suit up.
The Mountaineers won’t find it easy rushing the football anyway against the 14th-best rushing defense in the nation. The Trojans' overall defense is stout, but App State can cover the 6-point spread by throwing the football.
Aguilar has thrown 3+ scoring strikes in his last five and 13 touchdown passes in the visitors' jersey. Wideout Kaedin Robinson has a team-high 10 touchdown receptions. The offensive line keeps their quarterbacks' jersey clean but will face a stiff test against a Trojans pass rush averaging over three sacks per matchup.
Senior quarterback Gunnar Watson will surely test the Mountaineers' better-than-average scoring defense. Watson has slung it for 3147 yards with 25 touchdown passes, and junior running back Kimani Vidal has scampered for 1,349 yards with nine touchdowns. App State will have trouble with Vidal, but they are 47th against the pass, and their bend-but-don’t-break defense can keep the Trojans from running up a considerable number.
App State has a history of pulling off huge away upsets, is 3-0-0 ATS as the road underdog this season, and has defeated Troy in their last five meetings. This situation suits this group, and some of them still remember the Trojans ending their Sun Belt Conference reign by winning last year's SBC title. It will be close, but I’m taking the +6 and rolling with Appalachian State to cover the spread.
My best bet: Appalachian State +6 (-110 at Caesars)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Appalachian State vs Troy same-game parlay
Appalachian State +6
Over 52.5
I like App State quite a bit on Saturday. They have a multi-faceted offense and have covered in each away game as the underdog this season and has a winning history against Troy, including a couple of road wins since 2018.
Finding 53 points with these two teams isn’t that difficult to do. App State can beat teams offensively through the air or on the ground. Troy has one of the best rushing offenses with a quarterback boasting 25 scoring strikes.
Each defense has found the end zone, and we have two signal callers with a combined 14 interceptions. A pick-six or two isn’t out of the question, and would only fuel what I believe will be a raging offensive fire for both sides.
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Appalachian State vs Troy spread and Over/Under analysis
Caesars opened Troy as a -240 favorite, and the moneyline there hasn’t moved. The best price on Troy is at BetMGM (-225) if you fancy Troy to win. App State opened at +196 and hasn’t moved much. bet365 offers the best moneyline for the Mountaineers at +205.
Caesars opened App State +6 (-110), and neither the spread nor the vig has moved. The best number for App State is +6.5 at BetMGM, but they charge -115. FanDuel offers the best number for Troy -5.5 (-115) with the extra $5 juice for a $100 stake. The rest of the books have -6 at -110 odds, while BetMGM offers -6.5 (-105).
Over bettors can bet 52.5 (-110) at several major sportsbooks, but FanDuel has the best price (-108). Caesars offers Over 53 (-110), while BetRivers has 53.5 (-110) on their board. Under bettors can look to BetRivers Under 53.5 (-110) for the best number at the best price.
I will take a chance on the App State moneyline (+205) at bet365. I like Aguilar and the Mountaineers' passing game as well as their prowess as road underdogs. They’ve also defeated Troy five consecutive times, so it’s worth a tiny sprinkle.
Appalachian State vs Troy betting trend to know
The Mountaineers are 4-0 ATS in their last four conference games. Find more college football betting trends for Appalachian State vs Troy.
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Appalachian State vs Troy game info
| Location: | Veterans Memorial Stadium, Troy, AL |
| Date: | Saturday, December 2, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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