Arizona heads to Bill Snyder Family Stadium to take on Kansas State in Week 3 in a Big 12 showdown between two teams ranked in the AP Top 25,
I highlight why this game will be all about the contrasting styles of offense in my Arizona vs. Kansas State props and college football picks for Friday, September 13, featuring passing props for both quarterbacks and a rushing prop for DJ Giddens.
For more on this game, check out Andrew Caley's Arizona vs. Kansas State predictions!
Arizona vs Kansas State props for FOX Friday Night Football
- DJ Giddens Over 97.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
- Avery Johnson Under 195.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
- Noah Fifita Over 265.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made on 9-12.
Read full analysis of each pick.
College football player props this week
Prop bet #1: DJ Giddens Over 97.5 rushing yards
Best odds: -115 at BetMGM
Few Power 4 defenses have been worse at stopping the run this season than the Arizona Wildcats'. While Brent Brennan’s program has yet to play a quality opponent, it ranks 85th in EPA per rush on defense.
In Week 1, a winless New Mexico team ran for 210 yards and put up 39 points against the Wildcats. And in Week 2, Northern Arizona of the FCS was far more productive on the ground than through the air.
That opens the door for DJ Giddens to have a big performance against Arizona. Giddens has been the focal point of the Kansas State Wildcats offense to start the year and ranks 16th in the country in rushing yards (238).
He’s run for 114+ yards in both games this season and that includes an effort against a Tulane defense that’s 58th in SP+ while Arizona is just 70th.
Giddens should be able to consistently pick up chunk yardage against this Arizona defense and create after contact. He’s averaging 4.12 yards after contact per carry this season and has forced nine missed tackles, per PFF.
He also closed out last season on a hot streak with four straight games of 102+ rushing yards, giving him six straight with Over 97.5.
Prop bet #2: Avery Johnson Under 195.5 passing yards
Best odds: -115 at BetMGM
Despite some dark-horse Heisman odds hype for Avery Johnson ahead of the season, the true sophomore’s inexperience has been on display at times.
He has just three career starts under his belt and it’s shown thus far against UT Martin and Tulane. Johnson has yet to throw for Over 195.5 passing yards in any of his three starts.
In Week 2, a slow start against the Green Wave hindered the offense until Johnson’s legs were used more to open things up. His mobility, alongside that of Giddens, will be the difference in this matchup.
In a higher stakes game, it’s hard to imagine Johnson popping off for his most productive passing day, especially when this defense invites being run on. Kansas State offensive coordinator Conor Riley is likely to lean on his rushing attack against Arizona, especially with the emergence of sophomore running back Dylan Edwards.
Though Arizona isn’t a top-notch team against the pass, it’s far more productive at slowing it than the run, ranking 52nd in EPA per pass. Plus, Kansas State has yet to have a game-changing pass catcher emerge, making things even tougher on Johnson.
He’s been credited with as many big-time throws through two games as he has turnover worthy plays (2).
Prop bet #3: Noah Fifita Over 265.5 passing yards
Best odds: -115 at BetMGM
On the other side of the field, Arizona is home to one of the best QBs in the Big 12. Noah Fifita is coming off arguably the worst game of his career against Northern Arizona, which is why his passing yards total is about 10 yards less than normal.
Poised for a bounce-back performance, Fifita should top this total, and not only because he can hit big plays over the top against this secondary. Arizona is likely to be trailing in this matchup, which should allow for more pass attempts for Fifita.
He’s already gone Over 265.5 passing yards in seven of his last 10 starts, and he’s averaging 316.3 passing yards per game in that sample.
The Kansas State defense is also coming off a game against Tulane where it allowed 342 passing yards to freshman Darian Mensah. And Mensah doesn’t have one of the best receivers in the country like Fifita does.
In Week 1, Fifita went Over 265.5 passing yards on just throws to Tetairoa McMillan, who finished with 304 yards.
The combo should cause all kinds of issues for Kansas State’s secondary with McMillan averaging 15.1 yards after catch per reception and 5.73 yards per route run.
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