Arkansas State vs Oklahoma Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Fade the Sooners as Five-Touchdown Favorites

The Arkansas State Red Wolves will be looking for their first win over a Power 5 opponent since 2020 when they visit the Oklahoma Sooners in Norman on Saturday.

The Sooners are coming off a disappointing 6-7 season, which ended with a 35-32 loss to the Florida State Seminoles in the Cheez-It Bowl. Arkansas State found even less success last year, going just 3-9 in 2022.

Oklahoma is still looking to recover from the loss of head coach Lincoln Riley following the 2021 season and will be trying to leave the Big 12 on a high note this year. We’ll see if the Sooners can get off to a fast start in our free college football picks and predictions for Arkansas State vs. Oklahoma on September 2.

Arkansas State vs Oklahoma best odds

Arkansas State vs Oklahoma picks and predictions

In retrospect, perhaps we shouldn’t have been surprised that Oklahoma struggled so mightily in 2022. After all, the Sooners lost 13 players to transfers on the heels of Riley’s departure, including two key options at quarterback: Caleb Williams and Spencer Rattler.

But for new head coach Brent Venables, the biggest frustration was on defense. After a year of watching his team struggle in short-yardage situations and struggling with a lack of depth, Venables is hoping a bevy of transfers will bolster his defensive unit in 2023. 

If Oklahoma wants to score a big win on Saturday, it’ll need to show up on defense as Arkansas State brought in two players that should give the Red Wolves some level of offensive threat in the upcoming season. 

That starts with QB J.T. Shrout. The senior previously played for Tennessee and Colorado Buffaloes, and while his numbers weren’t great — he threw just seven touchdowns against eight interceptions last year — he’ll bring his wealth of experience to bear against Sun Belt Conference opponents. Receiver Corey Rucker is also back, having previously played for the Red Wolves before transferring to South Carolina and seeing very little play last year.

If the Sooners' offense was already in full swing, they would probably dominate an undertalented Arkansas State defense that ranked just 87th in scoring defense last year. However, Oklahoma might have a learning curve after losing several key pieces from last year’s unit.

Yes, Oklahoma does return Dillon Gabriel, and the senior quarterback should enjoy another excellent year after being one of the clear bright spots in Norman last year. However, leading runner Eric Gray left for the NFL and most of the team’s key receivers are gone. This includes Marvin Mims Jr., who caught 54 passes for 1,083 yards and six touchdowns last year. 

None of what I’ve written here should give Sooners fans a single reason to doubt that they’ll win comfortably on Saturday. However, it does make me question just how wide the point spread should be. 

While it might feel like it at first glance, this doesn’t look like a game in which Oklahoma won’t face a single challenge over the course of 60 minutes. The spread on this game is over five touchdowns at most sites, and that’s just too much to lay with a Sooners team that has to prove they are an elite program again.

I’m taking the Red Wolves and the points.

My best bet: Arkansas State +36.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Arkansas State vs Oklahoma same-game parlay

Arkansas State +36.5

Over 58.5
Dillon Gabriel to score a touchdown

+604 at FanDuel

I’m being fairly aggressive with this same-game parlay, but that’s based on a lack of confidence — to varying degrees — in both defensive units. It starts with again taking Arkansas State and the points, as I think the Red Wolves should be able to keep this one close for at least a while.

Given that both defenses struggled last year, I think the Over is the play, even at 58.5 points. Oklahoma should score into the 40s, with Arkansas State getting into the endzone at least a couple of times as well.

Finally, I’m taking the most experienced offensive player on the field to score a touchdown. Oklahoma won’t need to take any big risks to beat Arkansas State, which may mean that Gabriel takes fewer deep shots and is content to tuck the ball and run often... including one for six. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Arkansas State vs Oklahoma spread and Over/Under analysis

The line on this game opened with Oklahoma as a 32.5-point favorite. That number is long gone, however, and the consensus line is now closer to Sooners -35.5, with Arkansas State listed at +36.5 at some sites. 

Oklahoma floundered a bit last year, and as a result, went just 5-8 against the spread. Meanwhile, Arkansas State actually outperformed expectations a bit despite only winning three games, going 7-5 ATS during the 2023 season.

Based on the uncertainty surrounding the talent level of Oklahoma’s team this year, I’m backing the Red Wolves on the spread. While the Sooners will ultimately win this game, prevailing by more than five touchdowns isn’t a sure thing even when there’s a massive mismatch, and this isn’t exactly Alabama taking on a nobody FCS squad.

The Over/Under on Saturday’s contest opened at 60.5 points. That has since come down a couple of points, with the consensus total now sitting at 58.5. You can find -105 on the Over at 58.5 (or take -110 at 58 points flat at some sites), or get -110 on the Under. 

Last season, the Over went 7-5 in games played by Arkansas State, while the Under finished 7-6 in Okahoma's games (including its bowl appearance). 

Given how I expect this game to play out, my lean is towards the Over. While Oklahoma will inevitably get the best of the opportunities, I don’t trust the Sooners to completely shut down the Red Wolves. With Oklahoma all but certain to score big at home, taking the Over looks like the better play. 

Arkansas State vs Oklahoma betting trend to know

Oklahoma is 2-7 ATS in its last nine regular season games. Find more college football betting trends for Arkansas State vs Oklahoma.

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