Arkansas and Kansas are set to meet up for a fun matchup in the Liberty Bowl on Wednesday.
What a season it's been for the Jayhawks. A few years removed from being a bottom dweller in college football, they experienced unprecedented heights this season, including a one-time ranking in the Top 15.
Unfortunately, Kansas ended the season on a whimper with three straight losses — including a 47-27 loss to Kansas State to close out November.
Compared to a season ago, Arkansas took a step back with just a 6-win season, but the Razorbacks still managed to get a bowl appearance out of it. However, they enter this matchup with a bit of a sour taste, losers of two of their last three games by a combined five points.
Based on the bowl game odds, what's the best bet for this matchup? Find out in our free college football picks for Arkansas vs Kansas on December 28.
Arkansas vs Kansas best odds
Arkansas vs Kansas picks and predictions
It's undeniable that Kansas will be the more motivated team coming into this game, as it's the first bowl game since 2018. It's also indisputable that Arkansas is a more talented team, and Kansas' quarterback Jalon Daniels may not be at full strength.
The story here is what goes on in the trenches, as both of these teams will want to run the ball. I'm just not sold that Kansas will be able to keep up, especially for a full 60 minutes.
Arkansas was one of the best ground attacks in college football this season. The Razorbacks were second in the SEC in rushing yards per game at 223, and posted a very impressive 3.2 line yards per rush.
That's a big issue for the Jayhawks. This season, Kansas has been shredded on the ground to the tune of 193 yards allowed per game. That's last in the Big 12 and far from the bottom nationally.
On the other side of the ball, Arkansas hasn't been much better at stopping the run, but it's also been facing consistently good teams. There's not a conference in football that, in a vacuum, has more prowess in the trenches than the SEC.
Although the Razorbacks haven't defended the rush well, their metrics are pretty decent. What stands out here is a 1.09 explosiveness rating. That's pretty good, and Kansas has struggled with giving up explosive defensive plays all season.
These teams are very similar in their weaknesses and what they want to do. When that's the case, I firmly believe in backing the team with bigger players and better athletes.
My best bet: Arkansas -3 (-110 at DraftKings)
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Arkansas vs Kansas spread analysis
Arkansas will control the stretches, which is the justification for the Razorbacks covering the spread. Kansas hasn't seen much SEC-type physicality this season, and when it has, the Jayhawks have faltered.
The blowout at the hands of Kansas two weeks ago immediately comes to mind. That is why I expect Arkansas to take care of business here. The Razorbacks have faced significantly more talented teams this season, and although they have lost two of their last three, they aren't trending quite as poorly as Kansas has.
We already mentioned Kansas's late-season struggles, but how bad has it been? Bad enough that the Jayhawks have gone 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
Arkansas vs Kansas Over/Under analysis
The theme of this preview has been what Arkansas can do in the trenches. Because I have the Razorbacks controlling this game, I expect the ball to be on the ground for a reasonable amount of time.
That may come in the form of quarterback KJ Jefferson taking off with his feet or versatile weapon Rahiem Sanders, who has run for nearly 1,500 yards.
It's unknown if Daniels is back to 100% for the Jayhawks following his shoulder injury, and Arkansas will be without two starting linebackers' Drew Sanders and Bumper Pool. Both led the Razorbacks in tackles a season ago, and without them, they'll be starting a nice chunk of youth at that position.
Arkansas is exceptionally good at running the ball, while Kansas will want to do it because Arkansas is bad at defending it and has allowed the third-most rushing yards in the SEC this season.
This will lead to a good amount of the clock ticking off regularly.
Arkansas vs Kansas betting trend to know
The Razorbacks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games against Big 12 schools. Find more NCAA betting trends for Arkansas vs. Kansas.
Arkansas vs Kansas game info
| Location: | Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium, Memphis, TN |
| Date: | Wednesday, December 28, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 5:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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