The college football season does not genuinely end until the Navy Midshipmen face off against the Army Black Knights.
My Navy vs. Army player props lean into their understanding of the triple-option, a familiarity that keeps this game competitive no matter how much better of a season one academy may be having compared to the other.
Find out more in my college football picks for Saturday, December 13, and make sure to check out Andrew Caley's in-depth Army vs. Navy predictions!
Army vs Navy props for Week 16
Blake Horvath First TD Scorer (+500 at BetMGM)
Bryson Daily Under 124.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)- Tie/Army Halftime/Final Double Result (+1,100 at BetMGM)
Picks made on 12-14.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Army vs Navy college football player props
Prop bet #1: Blake Horvath first touchdown scorer
This is a value bet. BetMGM has set this prop far too high to be ignored.
Blake Horvath has 13 rushing touchdowns this season, leading Navy by four scores despite missing the Midshipmen’s last game. First of all, there is no injury that could keep Horvath sidelined against Army. Secondly, the most prolific scorer on the team is obviously the best bet to be the first Navy ball carrier to cross the goal line.
Granting that logic, the question then becomes... will Navy score before Army?
Some of that hinges on a coin flip. Of course, that is always the case with a “first touchdown scorer” prop.
Army’s offense may be superior to Navy’s, but it is not as much better as the stats make it seem. Consider that the current SP+ ratings would set this spread north of eight points, not the 6.5 Army is favored by. This spread sticking below a touchdown, even -6 at some sportsbooks, is a key difference.
The Midshipmen defense knows the triple-option. The coaching staff has been preparing for this matchup all season, particularly as it has heard such praise for the Black Knights’ offense.
The mere fact that this game is expected to be tight is an argument that Army’s offense is not going to hum as usual. That argument alone highlights the value in betting on Horvath to score first at these odds.
Prop bet #2: Bryson Daily Under 124.5 rushing yards
Again, trust this game will be closer than most of Army’s season. Trust Navy to know the triple-option and stay assignment-sound. And more than anything else, be certain this game will be plodding.
There might be only eight possessions apiece. This is part of the joy of this game. It becomes an exercise in discipline.
With that in mind, this rushing prop is just too high. Bryson Daily should not get enough carries to work his way toward 125 yards methodically, and the Midshipmen should keep contain to prevent him from breaking a big run.
He took 27 carries for 84 yards in this matchup last year, never breaking loose. Army’s improvement this season has been through the air, not necessarily on the ground.
No prop should be this high in this matchup. Not even Daily’s.
Prop bet #3: Tie/Army Halftime/Final Double Result
The first-half total is 19.5. That is a bold number, expecting three touchdowns in the first half from a game that will struggle to score five total. Desperation will not show up until the second half, and the first half could be a thorough slog.
That slog could result in a scoreless half.
At that point, this bet will be looking rather pretty. If it is indeed tied at halftime, Navy will still be a plus-money underdog, creating a massive hedge opportunity with profit guaranteed.
Betting on the defenses to limit big plays is a smart decision in this annual matchup. Limiting big plays would keep the first half contained as a whole, making a tie more likely.
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