Army vs Navy Props: Scoring Happens Late, If At All

There may be only one college football game this weekend, but there are a number of ways to approach the annual Army Black Knights vs. Navy Midshipmen tradition. And the smart way to do that leans into the usual service academy college football odds betting obligation: Unders.

Saturday’s total may have been deflated to an uncomfortable point, but some props can still offer value as our college football prop picks prepare for Army vs. Navy on Saturday, December 9.

Army vs Navy props for Week 15

• First half Under 13.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
• Highest scoring half - 2nd (+110 at DraftKings)
• Navy team total Under 14.5 (-160 at DraftKings)
• Longest touchdown - Army (-110 at DraftKings)
• Total touchdowns exact - 1 (+295 at DraftKings)
• Total touchdowns exact - 2 (+215 at DraftKings)

Picks made on December 8 at 4:30 p.m. ET.
Scroll for full analysis of each pick.

Prop #1 & Prop #2: Two halves make a whole (bet)

The total for this game has fallen as low as 27.5, with most books trying to cling to 28 points. That is still not enough to scare off Andrew Caley from his favorite bet in all of college football which is service academy Unders. If he has anything to worry about, it should be late-game surges.

This Under has fallen so low this year not just because these are two option teams facing each other, but also because both of these offenses are outright bad. They have bottomed out, in no small part because they no longer have stars at quarterback.

That shift forces any analysis of this game away from its historical trends. Focus more on the recent struggles. In two of the last three years, the first half featured far fewer points than the action after halftime. Sure, there is an overtime asterisk to that last season, but regardless, another score was going to be needed.

Army and Navy should struggle early. Desperation may change that late.

Props: First Half Under 13.5 (-105 at DraftKings), Highest scoring half - 2nd (+110 at DraftKings)

Prop #3: Navy offense flounders

The truer number is 13 points, with an Under 13.5 available at -130 and an Under 12.5 at -105. But some precaution may yield more winnings, hence this alternate total.

Describing how bad Navy’s offense is borders on insulting the Midshipmen, but these are just facts. It is a fact that the Midshipmen rank No. 132 in the country in rate of quality drives, finding a scoring opportunity on only 28.1% of their possessions. It is a fact that Navy then fails on those quality drives, turning them into just 2.9 points per opportunity, No. 117 in the country.

The Midshipmen do not rattle off explosive plays, and they fail at the end of most quality drives. Now they face Army, No. 14 in points allowed per scoring opportunity.

To frame this dichotomy in a more traditional sense, Navy turns only 50% of its red-zone possessions into touchdowns, No. 117 in the country. Army allows touchdowns on 48.4% of opponents’ red-zone possessions, No. 16 in the country.

When a weakness meets a strength where it matters most, the value should be emphasized.

Prop: Navy team total Under 14.5 (-160 at DraftKings)

Prop #4: Long Knights

First of all, Navy might not reach the end zone, a prop not yet available as of Friday afternoon.

But beyond that, the Midshipmen give up explosive scores. Compare their defensive success rate against the rush, No. 32 in the country, to the expected points added per rush against, No. 101 in the country. That massive difference is a sign of explosive plays allowed, repeated defensive successes then undone by one missed assignment.

Army would not usually be a team to count on for an explosive score, but the Navy defense may just make life that easy. And, again, there is no guarantee the Midshipmen even score a touchdown at any point, so any Knights’ touchdown would cash this prop.

Prop: Longest touchdown - Army (-110 at DraftKings)

Prop #5 & Prop #6: One or two will do

Do you believe in the Under as much as Caley always will, but want to be a bit more aggressive? Here is your play.

Army has averaged 10.1 possessions per game this season, Navy at 12 possessions each week only because its offense is so impotent (75 punts compared to the Knights’ 37). Going against each other, they may each have seven possessions apiece on Saturday.

The quick math based on their season rates, if each has seven possessions, equals Army putting together three quality drives and scoring 9.5 points on them, while Navy struggles to two scoring opportunities and scores six points.

Obviously the math and the reality will differ, but that should give an idea of how sluggish this game will be. Add in an explosive play out of necessity, and there being only two touchdowns is still very much in play.

Props: Total touchdowns exact - 1 (+295 at DraftKings), Total touchdowns exact - 2 (+215 at DraftKings) 

Army vs Navy same-game parlay

Navy team total Under 14.5

Highest scoring half - 2nd

Under 6.5 1Q

50% boost available

+310 +465 at DraftKings

Adding in the first-quarter Under raises this same-game parlay’s payout to +310 from +224 without adding much risk. The first quarter going Under 6.5 would help both of the other legs of this parlay.

It is effectively betting that the first possession of the game will not be a touchdown drive. If that proves true, any subsequent touchdown drive would likely take long enough to reach into the second quarter.

Make sure to opt in to DraftKings' no-sweat SGP promo, which allows all users to get bonus bets back if their first 3+ leg SGP doesn't win on Saturday.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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