Army vs Navy Predictions, Picks, Odds for College Football Week 16

If you know anything about Service Academy games, you already know where my Navy vs. Army predictions are headed...

It’s Army-Navy week, and while this afternoon's game is full of pomp and circumstance and is arguably the best version of these programs we’ve seen in years, it all comes back to one thing: Service Academy Unders.

The greatest trend in sports betting is back, and I break it all down and bring you my college football picks for this epic matchup with the Commander-in-Chief trophy on the line.

Kickoff is set for 3:00 p.m. ET from Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, with the game airing on CBS.

Army vs Navy prediction and best bet

Who will win Navy vs Army?

I think this game will be close. Only two of these matchups have finished by more than seven points over the last 10 meetings. Both teams have the best quarterbacks they’ve had in years in Navy’s Blake Horvath and Army’s Bryson Daily. But I’ll go with Army.

The Black Knights are the AAC champs and are 6.5-point favorites. On top of that, Daily has been slightly more effective than Horvath, who enters this game a little banged up. Army beats their biggest rivals for the third year in a row and defends the Commander-in-Chief Trophy.

My best bet
Under 39.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis

OK. Enough about who is going to win the game. That is secondary to the greatest trend in sports betting. 

Service Academy Unders.

For those of you who have been living under a rock, the Under is an immensely profitable 45-10-1 when service academies meet, dating back to the 2006-07 college football season (as far back as our data at Covers goes). That’s an 82.% cash rate. Which, in the betting world, is unheard of.

What makes this trend so successful is simple. No one knows how to defend a triple-option offense better than a service academy. And with guys who stick around for four years, they get good at it. It results in a lot of four-yard runs, which keeps the clock moving and limits possessions. 

Additionally, oddsmakers have never been able to properly adjust these totals for games being played to such low scores. That said, last year’s Army/Navy game did close with a record-low total of 28. (The game ended in a push).

But with the publicity this trend has gotten over the past few years, adjustments the oddsmakers did make, and the improvement of the offenses for both the Army Black Knights and the Navy Midshipmen, many thought the death of this trend was imminent. 

And that looked to be the case when Navy took on the Air Force Falcons earlier in the year with the Midshipmen winning a 34-7 contest, going Over the closing total of 37.5. But then Army quarterback Bryson Daily missed their matchup with the Falcons resulting in a 20-3 Black Knights victory securing another Under which was also set at 37.5.

Now, the quality of the teams this season is what makes the total for this Army-Navy matchup intriguing.

Army enters this game with an 11-1 record and are the recently crowned AAC champs, defeating Tulane in the title game 35-14. The Black Knights’ lone loss was a beatdown handed to them by Notre Dame.

Navy also has a respectable record at 8-3 which also included a beatdown by the Irish. 

Unsurprisingly, improved QB play is what has driven those improvements. For Navy, that’s Blake Horvath. Horvath is the better passer of the two Service Academy QBs throwing for 1,154 yards with 11 touchdowns and four interceptions while adding another 895 yards on the ground.

Daily meanwhile, threw for 877 yards with eight touchdowns and one pick. Daily added 1,480 yards and matched Ashton Jeanty with 29 rushing touchdowns. 

So, both teams are much more explosive in years past. This is why this total opened 12 points higher than it closed last year and currently sits at 39. But I’m still on the Under. 

This is the highest total these teams have seen since 2019 when it closed at 41.5 and they haven’t played over this number once in the last 10 meetings.

The intensity of this matchup is like none other. Navy would love nothing more than to hand Army a loss and win its first Commander-in-Chief Trophy since 2019. While Army wants to retain the trophy for a second straight year.

This is going to be a classic Army-Navy slugfest, full of long clock-chewing drives, resulting in yet another Under in this matchup.

Army vs Navy same-game parlay (SGP)

Under 39.5

Eli Heidenreich anytime TD

Kanye Udoh anytime TD

+1400 at BetMGM

Now, Blake Horvath and Bryson Daily are the most obvious anytime touchdown candidates for this matchup. But they’re not the only ones who can score on Saturday.

For Navy, I’m looking at Eli Heidenreich. Heidenreich does it all for the Midshipmen. Not only has he rushed the ball 55 times for 402 yards this season he also has great numbers as a receiver, catching 36 balls from Horvath for 597 yards, and has scored eight total touchdowns this season.

For Army, I like Kanye Udoh. Udoh had a great season rushing for over 1,000 yards and scoring 10 times. He's also coming off a great performance in the AAC Championship game where he rushed 20 times for 158 yards and a score. He also scored twice against Air Force earlier in the season.

An Under plus two anytime touchdown scorers means a big payout for this same-game parlay.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Army vs Navy odds

Army vs Navy live odds

Army vs Navy opening odds

• Navy vs. Army spread: Army -4.5
• Navy vs. Army moneyline: Navy +155, Army -185
• Navy vs. Army Over/Under: 41

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Army vs Navy spread and Over/Under analysis

• Army opened this matchup as 4.5-point favorites for this neutral site game being played on the field of the Washington Commanders. But early bettors were quick to jump on the Black Knights and drove the number up to 7 before dropping back to the current number of 6.5. 
• The Black Knights are the AAC champs and beat a Tulane team handily that shut out Navy 35-0. Mix in Navy QB Blake Horvath is dealing with some bruised ribs and Army is the deserved favorite here.
• The total hit the board at 41 and was bet all the way down to 38 before some Over money brought it back to 39 as of Thursday afternoon.
• As noted, this is the highest total in this matchup since 2019 and it has closed at 36 or lower in every game since.
• 74% of Covers Consensus users are backing Miami on the spread, while 61% are taking the Over.

Army vs Navy betting trend to know

The Under is 16-1-1 in the last 18 Army-Navy games. Find more college football betting trends for Navy vs Army.

Army vs Navy game info

Army vs Navy latest injuries

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Navy vs Army weather

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