Army vs UTSA Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Roadrunners Stuck in Mud

This is going to be an ugly game. The Army Black Knights are finding their way with a new offense and expecting them to produce in their first game against a decent defense would be overly ambitious. Meanwhile, the UTSA Roadrunners may be without their star quarterback this week. Even if Frank Harris does play, let’s hope more likely than not, he will be limited, just as he was in last week’s narrow win against Texas State.

A new bumbling offense against an offense with its primary driver limping may not sound like the most entertaining football, but it should create value for a pregame investment given the current college football odds. 

Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Army vs. UTSA on September 15, with kickoff set for 7:00 ET.

Army vs UTSA best odds

Army vs UTSA picks and predictions

If that introduction did not make it clear where this pick is headed, let’s not beat around the bush: Offense is going to be at a premium in San Antonio on Friday night. But, the value may be moving away from the full-game total. The midweek move to 44 or 44.5 from 45 or 45.5 may not sound like much, but 45 is vaguely a key number in totals. Simply put, six touchdowns plus a field goal lands on 45.

Betting Under 44.5 is akin to betting on a favorite at -14.5 or an underdog at +13.5. Sometimes we fight through that psychological torture and bet against the hook, anyway, but in this instance, there is no need.

The first-half total has not fallen as precipitously. As long as Under 22.5 is available without juice, and even conceivably down to 21.5, there is value. These two offenses would need to find rhythm and consistency against worthwhile defenses in order to reach the end zone three times and create a fourth scoring opportunity in just the first half. They won’t.

Army managed 13 points in its season opener against Louisiana-Monroe. There is no nice way to phrase this, so apology for that Warhawks fans, but plenty of good Texas high school teams could score 20 points against ULM. Its defense should be considered among the 30 worst in the country, and as the sample size grows, it may fall further.

The Black Knights face an impossible task in 2023, one that was not discussed enough in the offseason and one that will be realized only as it implodes in the coming weeks. Thanks to NCAA rule changes the last couple of years, Army head coach Jeff Monken opted to abandon the triple-option this season. Army now runs something of a shotgun-option.

A team that returned one pass attempt from last year, a team that averaged fewer than nine pass attempts per game last year, a team that has to play offensive linemen fitting the exacting physical standards required by a service academy is not a team that can immediately be trusted to be efficient throwing the ball.

Against Monroe, Army went 6-of-12 for 107 yards and two interceptions with the ball in the air. Sophomore Bryson Daily threw all but one of those passes, the exception actually being a 14-yard loss. There is not a planned rotation as the Knights try to figure this out. Daily is the guy.

That dubious passing game will struggle to find a running complement against the UTSA defense, ranked No. 10 in expected points added per rush against, per cfb-graphs.com. It should be able to slow the option remnants in Army’s offense well enough to create repeated third-and-longs where the pressure is then on Daily.

Flip possession and realize the Roadrunners have scored only 34 points through two games against one defense worse than ULM (scoring 14 points at Houston) and one defense that is middling at best (20 against Texas State).

Quarterback Frank Harris is fighting through a toe injury that required a halftime injection last week just to go 26-of-37 for 214 yards (a paltry 5.8 yards per attempt) and rush for 15 yards. Given his entire career, it can probably be assumed Harris will try to play, even on this short week, but toe injuries are more impactful than the average fan’s instincts may suggest. Harris will be limited. And thus, UTSA will be limited.

The full game total has fallen below a key number, and in a close game, perhaps things could get wonky in the fourth quarter. But this first-half total is ripe for the picking with two struggling offenses.

My best bet: First-half Under 22.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Army vs UTSA same-game parlay

First-half Under 22.5

Army TT Under 17.5

Joshua Cephus Over 73.5 receiving yards

+426 at FanDuel

Yes, the doubt in Army’s offense runs that deep. And let’s say it again, UTSA has a good defense. For these purposes, the most notable thought is that the Roadrunners gave up touchdowns on only 55.1 percent of opposing red-zone drives last season, ranking No. 37 in the country.

Even in this shotgun-option approach and even against an FCS opponent last week, the Black Knights rely on long, methodical drives, not explosive plays, for scores. Army scored eight touchdowns last week against Delaware State, with four of them coming courtesy of short fields. Of the four other scoring drives, two of them needed 10 plays or more. Even one of the short-field delights needed six plays to cover 25 yards.

Against ULM, Army’s offense found the end zone only when the Warhawks had dropped into prevent defense, otherwise thrice stalling out for field goals and once fumbling in the red zone. UTSA will force the Knights to finish their drives, and that should keep the Army point total to the mid-teens, at the highest.

Adding Joshua Cephus into this parlay fits with UTSA being favored by more than a touchdown. The fifth-year receiver should be the most explosive player on the field. In eight of 13 games last season, he cleared this yardage total, and he has in one of two thus far this season. With his speed, Harris should be able to find Cephus for a big play at some point Friday night, and that should be enough to propel him past 74 receiving yards.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Army vs UTSA spread and Over/Under analysis

This spread opened on Sunday with the Roadrunners favored by 10.5, a number that fell to -8.5 in the midweek and sits there late afternoon on Wednesday. Though it lost against the spread as 14-point favorites last week, UTSA went 2-1 ATS as a favorite of 7.5 to 14 points in each of the last two years. While a small sample size, that gives an idea that head coach Jeff Traylor manages to avoid backdoor covers more often than not.

For that matter, the Roadrunners went 6-1 outright in those moments, including last week, with the sole loss coming in the final week of 2021 when UTSA had already sealed up a spot in the Conference USA championship game and had some logic to easing up at North Texas before topping Western Kentucky in that title tilt.

The total opened at 45.5 before falling to 44 at most books and up to 45 still at some during the middle of the week. Keep in mind, that 45 is a number of value for a full-game total.

Army vs UTSA betting trend to know

 Seven of the last nine UTSA games have gone Under their first-half total. Find more college football betting trends for Army vs UTSA.

Army vs UTSA game info

Army vs UTSA latest injuries

Army vs UTSA weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic