The 2024 version of the Iron Bowl takes on new significance for both Auburn and Alabama following last weekend's results.
The Tigers suddenly find themselves one win away from an improbable bowl game appearance. However, they take on a Crimson Tide team that must win if it wants to keep any hopes alive of playing in the College Football Playoff.
My early Auburn vs. Alabama predictions and college football picks break down the matchup for Saturday, November 30.
Auburn vs Alabama predictions
Early spread lean
Alabama -11.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
There’s something about the road this season that has caused problems for the Alabama Crimson Tide. Although they beat LSU on the road a few weeks ago, last week’s 24-3 defeat at Oklahoma marked the third time the Tide have traveled for a game and come back with a loss.
And while the Auburn Tigers have won three of their last four games, they’ve also only won five times all season and have played away from Jordan-Hare Stadium on only three occasions. They defeated a hapless Kentucky squad in a game that was close in the third quarter but scored only 20 combined points in losses at Georgia and Vanderbilt.
The home crowd was huge in helping them pull off the upset over Texas A&M last week, but the Tigers won’t have that backing on Saturday. Alabama might be currently out of the playoff, but the Tide are going to be clinging to the hopes of sneaking in.
Alabama looked like a team that was overlooking Oklahoma as it prepared for the Iron Bowl. It’s hard to see Jalen Milroe laying another dud against an Auburn defense ranked 50th in EPA/pass and ranked in the Bottom 25% of the country in explosive pass play rate against.
Without an early 21-0 lead to stake itself to, Payton Thorne will be forced to make plays. Away from home this season, he’s averaging almost three fewer yards per pass attempt and has just two touchdown passes in 82 attempts. Milroe has been vastly superior at home, with just five touchdowns and six picks playing on the road this season. His completion rate at home is also 10% higher.
The Tide have the fifth-highest passing success rate in the SEC, but they were unable to find any success rushing the ball last week against an Oklahoma defense allowing the lowest rushing success rate in the conference.
The Aggies posted a positive EPA/rush against Auburn, with a 62% success rate. Marcel Reed hurt them with his legs throughout the game, and Milroe is likely to do the same. The Tide will get back to finding success on the ground, especially with Milroe’s legs. That will open up the passing game, and the Tide will take advantage of an exhausted Auburn defense and win by two touchdowns.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 51.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Four of Alabama’s last five games have gone Under, and with another total above 50, I’m leaning Under as well.
Auburn’s offense is not going to put points up in bunches. It ranks seventh in explosiveness in the SEC and has a below-average EPA per successful run, ranking 88th overall in EPA/rush. The Tigers will be going up against a Top 20 EPA/rush defense and a Top 15 EPA/pass unit.
And while people are pointing to the Sooners rushing for over 250 yards on the day, 131 of those came on the legs of quarterback Jackson Arnold. Thorne hasn’t rushed for more than 40 yards in a game since early September and has rushed for 50+ yards just four times in his entire college career.
Facing an Auburn defense ranked in the Top 40 in sack rate and 16th in opponent completion rate, the Tide are likely to focus more on the rushing game to open things up for Milroe’s arm. That’ll include Milroe himself hitting the ground, which won’t be easy against an Auburn defense ranked 25th in EPA/rush.
I anticipate the Tiger defense will wear down after an exhausting win over A&M, and the Tide will find success — but it’ll take some time for that to happen. Once it does, Alabama will post points on the board. The Tide ranks second in the conference in touchdown conversion rate inside the red zone, punching it in better than 70% of the time in SEC play.
Oklahoma scored 24 points last week but did so off the back of a pick-6 and a short field set up by another interception. It’s unlikely Auburn will get those easy points, which means grinding out yards and time off the clock. The problem for the Tigers is they’re converting red zone opportunities into touchdowns at the second-worst rate in the conference, with only six touchdowns from 21 trips.
Without explosive plays and without converting on opportunities, Auburn won’t put up enough points to push this one Over. With both teams likely looking to run the ball more than they throw, it’ll also limit the total plays as the Under moves to 4-0 in Auburn road games this season.
Auburn vs Alabama live odds
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