Auburn vs LSU Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Which Tigers Earn Their Stripes?

LSU Tigers head coach Brian Kelly knew he had a problem. He knew before any of us. He saw this chaotic season coming since mid-July, but his Media Day talking points could not help LSU’s problematic defense. That unit has doomed the Tigers to two losses already, and they still have a few SEC challenges ahead.

The Auburn Tigers may not be one of those noted hurdles, but LSU’s defense is bad enough to keep the college football odds spread within two touchdowns. Is that worth considering this weekend, or should another approach be taken? And no, we don’t simply mean a joke of guaranteeing the Tigers will win.

These free college football picks and predictions can do better than that for Auburn vs LSU on October 14, with kickoff set for 7:00 ET.

Auburn vs LSU best odds

Auburn vs LSU picks and predictions

At some point, LSU’s offense will misfire — or there will be enough flukey bounces in the red zone to secure an Under. But will that be this weekend? Auburn does have a decent defense, one excelling on early downs.

But still, probably not.

LSU — okay, for the rest of this article, the nickname “Tigers” is forbidden, even if repeatedly using LSU and Auburn starts to sound clunky; that is preferable to being unclear — LSU will long regret this season’s lost opportunity. Its offense is that good. Quarterback Jayden Daniels should be a Heisman odds front-runner. When including rushing stats, he outpaces current front runner Michael Penix Jr. But Penix quarterbacks an unbeaten Playoff contender, and Daniels has already suffered two losses.

Anyway, there has yet to be a reason to doubt LSU’s offense. Auburn’s defense may be pretty good, but it is not among the country’s best, and that is what it would take to stall LSU right now.

On the other side of the ball, Auburn needs to find mere competency to score against LSU’s wretched defense. LSU head coach Brian Kelly arrived at SEC Media Days in mid-July worried about his defensive backfield.

“When you have to dip into the transfer portal and bring it that many guys on defense, that’s an area of concern,” he said.

And he has been right, LSU ranking No. 112 in pass rating defense while giving up 8.2 yards per pass attempt against. This weekend, Auburn quarterback Payton Thorne’s ability to pull the ball down and run a bit has Kelly doubly worried.

“We have to defend the pass, we have to defend the quarterback and the quarterback run, which puts you in a very difficult situation defensively,” he said Thursday.

There hasn’t been a single piece of evidence suggesting LSU can do such. Mississippi State has one of the worst offenses in Power Five football right now, so exclude that and a contest against FCS-level Grambling State, and LSU is otherwise giving up 42.5 points per game in four games. That hasn’t been the result of chaos. LSU’s defense actually enjoys encouraging average field position. All that really means is eventually the opposing offenses gain even more yards, converting their quality possessions into 4.2 points per such drive, a number that puts LSU’s defense at No. 115 nationally.

For context, USC’s defense is regularly lampooned nationally, and it ranks No. 114 in points allowed per quality drive at 4.16. It simply gets an undue amount of attention compared to LSU’s defense because the Trojans are still in Playoff contention.

Betting on LSU’s offense to misfire is a foolish approach. Behind Daniels, LSU enjoys a Top-10 offense, depending on your preferred metric. Current SP+ ratings rank LSU’s offense at No. 3, EPA slots it at No. 4, points per game at No. 5, yards per game at No. 3 … you get the idea. When it fails, it will be unexpected and quite probably inexplicable.

It protects the ball, having lost only four turnovers through six games, while its defense does not create havoc, one of its many failings. LSU has forced just seven turnovers this season.

Auburn will put up points this weekend, simply because it’s playing LSU.

All of which adds up to only one conclusion: Keep betting Overs with LSU involved.

My best bet: Over 60 (-110 at Caesar’s)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Auburn vs LSU same-game parlay

Over 60.5
Auburn team total Over 24.5
Jayden Daniels anytime touchdown

+241 at FanDuel

Identifying where the points will come from Auburn is tricky simply because it has not played anyone as bad defensively as LSU, at least not in a month. Literally, in the last 29 days, Auburn has played only Texas A&M and Georgia. No individual player has excelled enough to garner faith in the anytime touchdown market, but Auburn scored 20 points against Georgia; it’s entirely reasonable to think Auburn should add at least a touchdown to that against LSU’s concern of a defense.

It's not as difficult to assume Daniels will score. Look at his player odds like a Heisman candidate’s and it becomes clear the numbers are underpriced.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Auburn vs LSU spread and Over/Under analysis

This spread opened with LSU favored by 11 points, a number that had been as high as -13 just last week in lookahead numbers. But LSU’s relative struggle with Missouri — a 49-39 win that was more truly 42-39, a last-minute interception return for a touchdown getting LSU the win against the spread in another game where “Tigers” usage proved only confusing — lowered already diminishing faith.

The total opened at 61.5 and jumped to 62.5 before falling to 60 on Tuesday. Why? Excellent question. It does not appear to be weather-related, the rain system in the Midwest not reaching as far south as Baton Rouge. It may be a hedge against Daniels playing, a rib injury last week sowing some doubt there, but all reports are he practiced this week.

Auburn vs LSU betting trend to know

LSU has not only hit the total in all six of its games this year by an average of 17.6 points per game but also in 13 of its last 14 games, dating back one full calendar year. Those 13 Overs have cleared their totals by an average of 15.4 points. Find more college football betting trends for Auburn vs LSU.

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