The battle for the Cy-Hawk Trophy writes another chapter today when the Iowa State Cyclones head to Kinnick Stadium to take on the rival Iowa Hawkeyes.
While these tend to be low-scoring matchups, the Hawkeyes have had the upper hand of late, prevailing in seven of the last eight meetings. Do I dare buck that trend with my Iowa State vs. Iowa predictions?
My college football picks break down this barnburner of a rivalry game for Saturday, September 7.
Iowa State vs Iowa prediction
My best bet
Iowa State +3.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Iowa State Cyclones and the Iowa Hawkeyes have a storied history. Unfortunately, most of those stories are low-scoring and with a total of 35.5 oddsmakers are expecting more of the same in 2024.
Both the Cyclones and Hawkeyes enter the season with expectations of a dark horse contender in each of their respective conferences and a win in this rivalry game could go a long way in determining who can reach that contender status.
The Hawkeyes are coming off a season where they had one of the worst offenses in the country, and their best offensive player was their punter.
In comes former Michigan Wolverines quarterback Cade McNamara to change the Hawkeyes offensive fortunes. And after one game, people were raving.
Iowa took out FCS Illinois State 40-0 in Week 1 while McNamara threw for 251 yards and three touchdowns, all to receivers. That is more receiver touchdowns than the Hawkeyes had all of last season. But before we crown the Hawkeyes the new Big Ten champs let’s pump the brakes a bit.
This was against an FCS team remember? And before Iowa made some adjustments, this game was just 6-0 at halftime.
Meanwhile, Iowa State took care of business in a 21-3 win over FCS North Dakota, where the Cyclones played it very safe and ran a very vanilla offense. And while people seem jacked about this Iowa offense, I’d prefer to have Cyclones quarterback Rocco Becht.
Becht took over the Cyclones starting job last season and never looked back. He ended up throwing for 3,120 yards while completing 63% of his passes with 23 touchdowns compared to just eight picks.
For my money, Becht is the more dynamic passer and playmaker of the two quarterbacks and in a game that is expected to be low-scoring and close, I’ll be siding with the team with a better QB, particularly when you are giving me more than a field goal.
Iowa State vs Iowa same-game parlay (SGP)
Iowa State +3.5
Over 35.5
Kaleb Brown Under 34.5 receiving yards
This is a matchup of teams that know each other really well. Kirk Ferentz and Matt Campbell have both been around for a while. And these programs have been built on strong defenses. So, it’s no surprise these teams have played to the Under. A lot.
The Under has cashed in five straight games and is 7-2-1 over the last 10 matchups. But sportsbooks have adjusted. But these teams have averaged 40.8 combined points per game over the last 10 games and have played Over this number of 35.5 six times over those 10 matchups.
What I don’t think books have adjusted for is that both of the offenses have been upgraded over last season, and for Iowa significantly. Give me the Over 35.5.
Much was made of the fact the Hawkeyes had three touchdowns to receivers last week after scoring just two all of last season. But I’m going to fade them here. I think the hype is too much right now. Let’s add Kaleb Brown Under 34.5 receiving yards.
Brown missed last week’s game due to disciplinary reasons so, he doesn’t have as much time with this offense, while the secondary could be the strength of this Cyclones defense.
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Iowa State vs Iowa odds
Iowa State vs Iowa live odds
Iowa State vs Iowa opening odds
- Spread: Iowa State +3 | Iowa -3
- Moneyline: Iowa State +135 | Iowa -160
- Over/Under: Over 36.5 | Under 36.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Iowa State vs Iowa spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Hawkeyes opened the rivalry game as 3-point home favorites. The Cyclones saw the early money with the line sitting at 2.5 for much of the week. But bettors have hit the Hawkeyes and the line has moved to 3.5.
- While the Hawkeyes have dominated this rivalry of late, the spreads have been more even. The Hawkeyes are just 3-3 ATS in the last six meetings.
- The total hit the board at 36.5 and not surprisingly the early money has come in on the Under with the total sitting at 35.5 as of Thursday afternoon.
- Last season's total closed at 34.5, so I'm not sure if sportsbooks are accounting for the increase in offenses this season, the Hawkeyes in particular.
Iowa State vs Iowa betting trend to know
Iowa State has covered the Spread in 4 of their last 5 away games for +2.90 Units and a 53% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Iowa State vs Iowa.
Iowa State vs Iowa game info
| Location: | Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, IA |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-7-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
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