Closing out Week 2 is Mississippi State making the long trip west to face Arizona State tonight.
Both teams took care of business in their season-opener as they ran up the score, and our Mississippi State vs. Arizona State predictions expect a similar offensive outburst.
Find out more in my college football picks for Saturday, September 7.
Mississippi State vs Arizona State prediction
My best bet
Over 59.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
This is a fun one.
The Mississippi State Bulldogs offense looked lights out in week one against a far inferior competition, but it still means at least something. The young first-year Head Coach Jeff Lebby was brought to Starkville to bring back the dynamic passing offenses for which Mississippi State has been known. He built that reputation at various stops, including as an offensive coordinator in Oklahoma. That was against Eastern Kentucky when Mississippi State accounted for eight explosive plays of its 62.
I expect that to continue here and for Arizona State to do its part. I'm grabbing the Over with the expectation of fireworks for a light-night show out west.
After zero continuity last season, the Sun Devils may have found their QB in former four-star recruit Sam Leavitt. He was one of 30 transfers to join the team in the offseason and looked impressive last weekend. Arriving from Michigan State, Levitt displayed the multi-facet aspect of his game, throwing for a pair of touchdowns on over 250 yards of passing and running for 47 on the ground. Both of these aspects are concerning for the Bulldogs par, particularly the deep ball. Levitt connected on multiple passes of over 20 yards, including a 68-yard touchdown. This is a Bulldog defense that was pretty average throughout the SEC but gave up the fourth most passes of 30 or more yards in the conference. I'm concerned that that is still an issue.
As for the Sun Devil defense, it's nearly impossible to grasp how much it has improved. Wyoming was expected to deliver a much better performance than it did, but it has also dealt with a coaching change for the first time since 2014. You wonder how much that played a part last week, and it still left me to hold on to some of my priors from last season. Those priors? It was a defense that allowed 7.5 yards per passing attempt and one of the Pac-12's worst marks of 263 yards per game through the air.
That's alarming when facing Lebby. Particularly with Blake Shapen behind center. He was up and down last year but finished the season throwing for over 300 yards and three of the previous four games. The deep ball looked to be there in game one, too, when he threw for a trio of touchdowns on 75% passing before being pulled early due to a blowout.
Both defenses haven't yet shown the ability to slow down explosive plays, and both have capable quarterbacks who can exploit that in various ways. I expect this to be highly competitive, with both teams chasing points. Give me the over.
Mississippi State vs Arizona State same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 59.5
Sam Leavitt Over 224.5 passing yards
Blake Shapen 30+ rushing yards
It's all about the QBs in our same-game parlay as we are pairing two legs with our best bet for this same-game parlay.
The first of these is Leavitt to go Over 224.5 passing yards. As I've noted, the Mississippi State defense is mostly average across the board and didn't do much to make me think otherwise during the offseason. In this one, there should be opportunities down the field to get the ball to several speedy options in the Arizona State receiving core. Add in the fact that in most game scripts, Arizona State is trailing at least for a portion of this one, and we love the chances of Leavitt eclipsing a number that he easily went over last week on just 14 completed passes.
Rounding off things is QB Blake Shapen to get it done on the ground. We like two things about this play. One is that we shouldn't worry too much about negative plays. Even against an overmatched offensive line, Arizona State could only get to QB three times. They may not do it once against an SEC-caliber offensive line. Secondly, Shapen legs are a real issue here. The Sun Devils allowed opposing QBs to run for 50 yards or more in two of its last four games last season. With seven designed runs for Shapen last week, the Bulldogs look willing to attack that weakness.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
New Users
Up to $1,500 in bonus bet insurance at BetMGM
Make your football plays at BetMGM, which is offering new users up to $1,500 in bonus bets (if your first bet doesn't win)!
Sign up now to join the King of Sportsbooks, or learn more with our comprehensive BetMGM sportsbook review.
Eligible U.S. locations only
Mississippi State vs Arizona State odds
Mississippi State vs Arizona State live odds
Mississippi State vs Arizona State opening odds
- Spread: Mississippi State +2.5 | Arizona State -2.5
- Moneyline: Mississippi State +190 | Arizona State -230
- Over/Under: Over 59.5 | Under 59.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Mississippi State vs Arizona State spread and Over/Under analysis
- Arizona State has never defeated an SEC opponent in its school's history, going 0-5 in prior attempts.
- Mississippi State ended last season on a terrible run, losing four of its last five games and just one cover ATS.
- Things were only slightly better for Arizona State, which won two of its last five games and covered in two ATS.
- Odds significantly shifted in Arizona State's direction, settling around a field goal higher than the team's opening number at the start of the month.
Mississippi State vs Arizona State betting trend to know
Mississippi State has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.60 Units / 20% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Mississippi State vs. Arizona State.
Mississippi State vs Arizona State game info
| Location: | Mountain America Stadium, Tempe, AZ |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-7-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Mississippi State vs Arizona State latest injuries
Mississippi State vs Arizona State weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
