Baylor vs Air Force Prediction: Armed Forces Bowl Odds and Picks

December may come and neglect the Air Force Falcons — a byproduct of the annual festivities around the Army-Navy game — but the fact of the matter is, Air Force was the best service academy in 2022, thus the only one of three to make a bowl game.

Facing the Baylor Bears in Fort Worth nearly gives the Bears home-field advantage, but there also seems to be some sort of edge given the courtesy of the bowl’s name, with service academies going 3-0 straight up in their last three appearances.

Here are our free college football betting picks and predictions for Baylor vs. Air Force on December 22.

Baylor vs Air Force best odds

Baylor vs Air Force picks and predictions

Bowl-season motivations can be hard to diagnose. How badly does Baylor want to play this game, four weeks removed from its third loss in a row? Has the letdown of a 6-6 season following a Big-12 title dampened the roster’s resolve this month? Last year the Bears closed the season on a five-game winning streak: will they be able to bounce back from this year’s three-game losing streak?

And can Baylor convince itself to do all that while practicing to face the triple-option?

No offense kills a defense’s motivation like the triple-option. The frustration of monotonous three-yard gain after monotonous four-yard gain leads to defensive lapses, and Air Force exploits those with explosive pass plays.

This psychological hurdle has undoubtedly played a role in service academies going 21-9 against the spread in bowl games since 2005, the most recent notch in that belt coming from Air Force last year as a one-point favorite against Louisville. The Falcons won 31-28 largely thanks to a 28-14 halftime lead.

Since Troy Calhoun took over at Air Force in 2007, the Falcons are 6-5 straight up and 7-4 ATS in bowl games. They have covered and won their last three and four of their last five, that fourth coming as an underdog in 2014. As Calhoun has grown his program, it certainly seems he has leaned into frustrating opponents in the postseason.

Now those are the broad-stroke trends, the big-picture realities of facing a triple-option offense in an exhibition, but what about this matchup specifically? Well, Baylor’s rush defense leaves a lot to be desired.

Adjusting for sacks, the Bears gave up 4.51 yards per rush this season. On the average running play, Baylor’s opponents added 0.058 expected points to their total, once factoring in game situation. Per CFB Graphs, that ranked No. 94 in the country.

It does not need to be pointed out that struggling against the run is a distinct worry against a triple-option offense, does it? Well, it’s a distinct worry. The Bears will need to defend every down against Air Force as the Falcons attempt two fourth downs per game — converting 19 of 24.

Capitalizing on this likely Baylor headache created by Air Force’s offense can be done via two paths, one more aggressive than the other. The argument here is that the Falcons will succeed offensively. With a team total Over of 20.5 available at +102 at FanDuel, betting on Air Force to score three touchdowns is appropriate.

Or, a more aggressive play is to simply bet on the Falcons to win. They have not been underdogs this season — no, really, Air Force was favored in all 12 games this year — so there is no trend to highlight, but betting on underdogs to win outright in bowl games pans out in the long term.

Per Chris Fallica, 36% of bowls from 2008 through 2021 were won outright by the underdog. Betting on the Falcons to cover a 4-point spread may be tempting, but +160 as an outright winner is even more enticing.

My best bet: Air Force moneyline (+160 at WynnBet)

Baylor vs Air Force spread analysis

While it is notable that the Falcons have not been underdogs this season, it is more pertinent that Baylor was 0-3 ATS as a single-digit favorite. Worse yet, the Bears lost all three of those games outright.

Those three offenses — Kansas State, West Virginia and Oklahoma State — are all no better than average rushing the ball. Yes, even the Wildcats rank only No. 69 in expected points added per rush. Yet, those three averaged 191.3 rushing yards and 4.56 yards per carry.

There may be no evidence this year of how Air Force fares as an underdog, but there is a clear recipe for upsetting Baylor, and it is a game plan that fits the Falcons’ triple-option perfectly.

Line movement supports that thinking, having opened with the Bears favored by 6.5 points two weeks ago and dropping to -4.5 this past weekend.

Baylor vs Air Force Over/Under analysis

Faith in Air Force’s offense is also faith in the Under, trusting the Falcons to chew up clock with their triple-option and thus reduce Baylor’s opportunities to run up a score.

A total of 44 points calls for points on at least seven possessions. This season, Air Force and its opponents have each averaged about nine possessions per game, 18 total.

Bears' quarterback Blake Shapen has thrown 10 interceptions this year, while the Falcons have intercepted nine. Assume at least one turnover in each direction, and those 18 possessions are now down to 16 with scoring viability. A successful day for Air Force will reduce that further. Without much in the way of mental gymnastics, half the possessions in Fort Worth may need points to reach the Over.

In-play microbetting trends for Baylor vs Air Force

The best betting sites for microbetting college football (with their odds powered by Simplebet):

• DraftKings Sportsbook
• bet365 Sportsbook
• Caesars Sportsbook

Here are the next drive results when each team started at the 25-yard line (for all drives available to bet) for both the two-way betting market and the four-way betting market:

Baylor

Offensive score Yes: 11/32 (34.4%)
Offensive score No: 21/32 (65.6%)

Punts: 10/32 (31.2%)
TDs: 8/32 (25%)
FG attempts: 3/32 (9.4%)
TOs: 11/32 (34.4%)

Baylor had one drive that started at the 25 that did not have betting markets.

Air Force

Offensive score Yes: 13/29 (44.8%)
Offensive score No: 16/29 (55.2%)

Punts: 9/29 (31%)
TDs: 12/29 (41.4%)
FG attempts: 2/29 (6.9%)
TOs: 6/29 (20.7%)

Air Force had four drives that started at the 25 that did not have betting markets.

Baylor vs Air Force betting trend to know

The Under is 5-1 in Air Force’s last six games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Baylor vs. Air Force.

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