We get some AAC action under the lights as the East Carolina Pirates visit the Tulsa Golden Hurricane on Thursday night.
This Pirates offense has plundered opponents, putting up huge numbers in back-to-back wins, and is now just one win from bowl eligibility.
My East Carolina vs. Tulsa predictions see the Buccos firing the cannons on offense, but will it be enough to cover a two-touchdown spread? Read my college football picks below to find out.
East Carolina vs Tulsa prediction and best bet
My best bet
Katin Houser Over 299.5 passing yards (-115 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
The East Carolina Pirates have turned around their season in the last two games, exploding for 49 and 56 points in consecutive wins. The reason for that? Switching to Katin Houser at quarterback three games ago.
The Michigan State transfer has thrown for 894 yards with 13 touchdowns and three interceptions over those three games. That includes throwing five touchdown passes in each of the two wins. The Buccos have also gone 2-1 straight up and 3-0 against the spread, and I like Houser to keep cooking in this matchup against the Tulsa Golden Hurricane.
East Carolina is now 5-4 on the season and is just one win away from bowl eligibility, and this matchup against Tulsa might be their best shot to get there.
The Golden Hurricane enter this game with a 3-6 record but are just 1-4 in conference play, getting outscored 225-104 in the process. The offense is struggling to score, and the defense is getting killed through the air.
Tulsa ranks 110th in defensive success rate on dropbacks and 134th (dead last in the country) in EPA per dropback. This means the Golden Hurricane secondary is getting torched consistently and for explosive plays.
These are the passing yard totals Tulsa has allowed to opposing starting quarterbacks over the last five games: 404, 434, 297, 140, and 493.
The 297 was Temple. The 140 was Army, which Bryson Daily did on just five passes. Houser, who threw for 343 yards in last week’s win over Florida Atlantic, has a passing yard prop of 299.5. Give me the Over in a game the Pirates need much more than Tulsa.
East Carolina vs Tulsa same-game parlay (SGP)
Katin Houser Over 299.5 passing yards
Katin Houser 4+ passing touchdowns
East Carolina first half -7.5
East Carolina’s problem this season was its offense. Well, it looks like the Pirates have solved that problem with the switch to Houser. Let’s double up on the prop plays for the Buccos QB and take his alternate touchdowns at 4+ after throwing for five in each of the last two weeks.
Meanwhile, this Pirates defense has been the team’s strength all season long. East Carolina enters this game ranked 28th in defensive success rate. Now, the Pirates have been burned by explosive plays at times, but Tulsa is not equipped to take advantage of that.
The Golden Hurricane rank 130th in EPA/play on offense and offensive success rate. East Carolina is a perfect 3-0 ATS with Houser at QB and has brought solid leads into half in each of the last two games. I like the Pirates to get off to another good start.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
East Carolina vs Tulsa odds
East Carolina vs Tulsa live odds
East Carolina vs Tulsa opening odds
- East Carolina vs. Tulsa spread: Tulsa +13
- East Carolina vs. Tulsa moneyline: East Carolina -500, Tulsa +375
- East Carolina vs. Tulsa Over/Under: 59.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
East Carolina vs Tulsa spread and Over/Under analysis
- Tulsa opened this matchup getting 13 points, but that wasn't enough to get early bettors to side with the home underdog, as the spread now sits at 14.5.
- East Carolina has looked like a different team with Katin Houser at QB and is 3-0 ATS with him under center. Meanwhile, Tulsa is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven games overall.
- The total hit the board at 59.5, and the early action has been on the Over, with the number jumping up to 62.5 as of Wednesday afternoon.
- This lines up with the QB switch for ECU. The Pirates have cashed three straight Overs with Houser under center and four in a row overall. Bettors are hoping ECU does the heavy lifting here, and it's not a crazy thought. Tulsa has allowed 45+ points in four of its last five games. Not surprisingly, the Over is 4-1 during that period.
East Carolina vs Tulsa betting trend to know
Tulsa has only covered the first-half spread in three of their last 11 games for -6.10 units and a -49% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for East Carolina vs Tulsa.
East Carolina vs Tulsa game info
| Location: | Chapman Stadium, Tulsa, OK |
| Date: | Thursday, 11-14-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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