Everyone rejoice — college football has returned!
After a small-scale appetizer in Week 0, the sport returns with a vengeance in Week 1 with a full slate of games to satiate viewers’ appetites.
I’ve got my eye on the player prop market and have selected my four favorite bets in Week 1.
Who will emerge as a key playmaker for Louisville in Jeff Brohm’s coaching debut? Has the Iowa Hawkeyes offense heard that they’re the butt of everyone’s joke, and do they have anything to say about it? What value is created in West Virginia’s change in offensive scheme?
I’ve got the answers to all those questions in my Week 1 college football player prop picks.
College football props for Week 1
- Jawhar Jordan Over 63.5 rushing yards (+100)
- Kaleb Johnson Over 86.5 rushing yards (-115)
- Garrett Greene Under 170.5 passing yards (-114)
Picks made on August 31 at 10:15 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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College football player props this week
Run like the river, Jordan
Jawhar Jordan is primed to be one of Louisville’s top skill position players after rising from fifth on the depth chart a year ago to a starter by season’s end. He’s a home-run threat who managed 815 rushing yards and four touchdowns a year ago despite playing in a crowded backfield and competing for carries with dangerous dual threat Malik Cunningham. Cunningham’s since departed for the NFL and most of the other competition for backfield touches is no longer around, parting the seas for more touches in 2023.
I like this matchup for Jordan against a Georgia Tech defense that had issues stopping the run a year ago, checking in at 112th in EPA per Rush and 110th in rushing success rate. The Yellow Jackets lose an elite duo at linebacker in Ayinde Eley and Charlie Thomas, who combined for 230 tackles, 20 TFL, and 5.5 sacks. Considering they allowed 188.6 rushing yards per game a year ago even with those two stars on the field, it wouldn’t be surprising if they took another step back in 2023. The strength of this defense is in the secondary, not up front.
I also like that this is a conference game in which Louisville is favored but not expected to blow out its opponent. Far too often in Week 1, a prop looks too good to be true and it turns out to be so after the starters get pulled after piling up a big lead early. That’s not anticipated to be the case here as the Cardinals are a -7.5 road favorite — just enough to foster a positive game script for a running back.
Jordan topped this mark in each of the last five games of 2022 while averaging 111 rushing yards per game in that span. We’ve seen what he can do as a starter, and he enters 2023 as the clear-cut RB1 for Jeff Brohm’s Cardinals.
Jawhar Jordan prop: Over 63.5 rushing yards (+100 at DraftKings)
An Iowa Over…? Yes, really
Most times you hear people talking about Iowa football it’s to mock the Stone Age offense or the nepotism that led to a unit that ranked 130th in EPA per Play while mustering a lowly 251.5 total yards per game. Well, if a Stone Age involves pounding the rock, then tailback Kaleb Johnson is in line for a productive season.
The 222-pound back was a rare bright spot for the Hawkeyes’ offense in 2022, rushing for 779 yards on 5.2 yards per carry as a true freshman while adding six touchdowns. Considering this inept scheme fostered 2.9 yards per carry as a group, Johnson stood out as the lone rusher to average more than 4.0 yards per carry — and he cleared that with margin.
He should be even more heavily featured in 2023 as he continues to excel. The offensive line should improve in front of him as they return their entire two deep from a group that played a lot of young guys a year ago. They have 114 career starts up front and have every chance to pave the way for a strong rushing day against a Utah State defense that lost five impact defensive linemen (four to the Power 5 via the portal) and its defensive coordinator following spring camp.
Iowa should have a favorable game script here and with an ailing Cade McNamara, look for them to lean heavily on their promising young back.
Kaleb Johnson prop: Over 86.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
The Grass isn’t always Greener
The West Virginia Mountaineers are expected to be very rush-heavy on offense in 2023. They have a good stable of running backs headlined by CJ Donaldson, a true freshman breakout from a year ago, and an experienced offensive line that is the strength of the team. They lose their pass-happy offensive coordinator, top four wide receivers, wide receiver coach, and top two tight ends. Starting quarterback Garrett Greene is dangerous with his legs but is still unproven as a passer.
The signs could not be more clear to me what this team’s offensive identity will be — smashmouth, zone-read option football. That has me eyeing Greene’s passing yardage Under prop for Week 1 against a formidable Penn State defense that surrendered just 18.2 ppg and 323.5 total yards per game a season ago and could be even better this go around.
The Nittany Lions were a no-fly zone last year, ranking fifth in EPA per Pass. Star cornerback Kalen King returns and the secondary will be a strength yet again. There is a clear way that teams have chosen to attack this defense and it’s through a power rushing attack — the Nittany Lions are a bit undersized up front and ranked just 64th in rushing success rate and 69th in rushing explosiveness.
I expect a ton of rushing attempts from the Mountaineers in this contest and I’m not sure how efficient the passing attack will be when they do throw the ball, so this prop screams Under.
Garrett Greene prop: Under 170.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Not intended for use in MA.
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