No one had a clearer path to the 12-team College Football Playoff than Notre Dame did — and the Fighting Irish managed to botch that within one week.
One of the beautiful aspects of the 12-team Playoff is that Notre Dame is by no means eliminated after losing to Northern Illinois on Saturday despite being favored by four touchdowns. Finishing the season 11-1 would assuredly propel the Irish into the Playoff, and they should still be favored in their remaining 10 games, but they no longer enjoy a believable margin for error.
Losing as a 28-point favorite in the college football odds would jar any contender’s fans, but losing as a favorite has been a particularly harsh reality for Notre Dame fans during Marcus Freeman’s 2+ seasons as Irish head coach. In Brian Kelly’s last four seasons at Notre Dame, he went 40-0 outright as a favorite and 25-14-1 against the spread.
Freeman has gone 17-5 outright when favored, though 13-9 ATS, a cutting rejoinder that perhaps Kelly was right when echoing just about every football coach in history: “Winning is hard”.
Alabama, Oklahoma, Oregon, and Liberty all remembered winning is hard this weekend, just with far lesser consequences than Notre Dame suffered.
College football Week 2 things you shouldn't overreact to
Don’t trust Notre Dame’s offense.
Marcus Freeman was asked this week about Duke transfer quarterback Riley Leonard’s struggles pushing the ball downfield. He pushed back against that thought somewhat firmly: “I’m no quarterback guru, but I do feel strongly about being able to say ‘Let’s take some shots and throw it down the field.’”.
If the Irish had not taken a shot downfield late in the fourth quarter, they probably would have held on for a 14-13 victory. Instead, Leonard underthrew an open receiver on second-and-one, and Huskies defensive back Amariyun Knighten returned the interception to midfield, setting up the game-winning field goal five minutes later.
🚨UPSET ALERT🚨
— Always College Football (@AlwaysCFB) September 7, 2024
Don’t count out Northern Illinois just yet 👀
Riley Leonard’s second interception puts the Huskies in BUSINESS
pic.twitter.com/HQKbOlMyaR
Leonard’s pass was not only short, but it was also flat. He did not get any air under the ball to give his receiver a chance to adjust. Completing just 4 of 21 throws of 20+ yards last season at Duke looks less and less like a reflection of his Blue Devils receivers and more and more like a reflection of Leonard’s downfield touch.
Notre Dame’s offense may lack an explosive passing game yet again. Even against an opponent like Purdue, one usually ripe to allowing explosive pass plays, Notre Dame will not produce them, instead relying on the ground game and intermediate throws.
Douglas’ advice: Do not hesitate to hop on the Under in Notre Dame at Purdue this weekend. Even if the Irish attempt to emphasize improving this weakness, their defense should stifle Purdue’s offense, slowing the game in one regard or both.
Don’t trust Pittsburgh. At all. Don’t do it.
Congrats to the Pittsburgh Panthers, who came back from a 27-6 deficit to win 28-27 with a field goal in the final minute. The credit for that victory should also be construed as criticism of Cincinnati head coach Scott Satterfield, an entirely different conversation questioning the Bearcats’ hiring thoughts two winters ago.
The outright dismissal of Pitt moving forward is not entirely because it struggled on Saturday against the worst team in the Big 12. It is also partly because Kent State lost 23-17 to FCS-level St. Francis (PA).
The transitive property is not a good way to approach college football handicapping, but there is more to the thought when recognizing the Panthers could not put Kent State away for nearly three quarters a week ago, and now seeing that the Golden Flashes were thoroughly outplayed by a below-average FCS-level team (402 total yards to 280, 5.8 yards per play to 4.3).
That is not the transitive property so much as getting a better idea of how bad Kent State was, and yet it made Pitt sweat last week.
Football fans in Pittsburgh are not stupid. They know they have a wretched team in front of them. If West Virginia gets an early lead next week, the home crowd may turn on Pitt and lead to a quick spiral for Pat Narduzzi in his 10th season.
Douglas’ advice: The West Virginia at Pitt spread should open within a field goal. Take the Mountaineers. Neal Brown has more forward momentum than Pat Narduzzi does right now and the Panthers are worse than yet realized.
Douglas’ advice: Oh, and Kent State heads to Tennessee next week. Take any number up to -28 for Tennessee in the first half. The Vols will ease up eventually, as they sat Nico Iamaleava halfway through the fourth quarter of their blowout of NC State this weekend. A smaller lead will feel even more comfortable against the not-so-Golden Flashes, so Iamaleava may not play as much as three full quarters, so any full-game lines could cause worry.
Temple is just as bad as Kent State, by the way.
The Temple Owls have been outscored 89-14 this season. They have no positions of strength.
Navy’s defense is not particularly good, ranking No. 68 in last week’s SP+ ratings from ESPN.com, but it still held Temple to 3.85 yards per play on Saturday. Not much else needs to be said.
Douglas' advice: Hello, Coastal Carolina up to -27.
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College football Week 2 things you definitely should react to
Trust in Texas. Texas is back.
No matter how much the Michigan Wolverines have fallen off from last season, the ease of Saturday’s blowout was astounding. The Texas Longhorns had no problems in any area of the game.
The Wolverines are expected to have one of the country’s best defenses, yet the Longhorns converted 10 of 16 third downs. Texas needed just seven possessions to craft a 31-6 lead, turning six of those into quality drives.
Coming away with 5.17 points per quality drive is a change in fortune from last season’s crippling flaw when the Longhorns averaged just 3.14 points per quality drive, No. 106 in the country in the regular season.
If Texas has figured out how to score where the field matters most — and it's clear the Longhorns have, as not one of their scores in Ann Arbor came via an explosive play — then it should be taken seriously in all bigger-picture conversations.
Douglas' advice: Evaluate your futures portfolio. It may be time to add a ticket on Texas to win the national championship or on quarterback Quinn Ewers to win the Heisman. Yours truly will be looking into the latter, Ewers now the frontrunner at +600 at DraftKings. Or, if comfortable waiting longer for your money, Ewers may quickly become the No. 1 quarterback prospect in this NFL draft class, at which point betting on him to go No. 1 overall would hold some logic, available at +600 at FanDuel, trailing only Georgia quarterback Carson Beck at +300.
Trust in Utah. Early reports are optimistic about Cam Rising’s injury.
Utah Utes seventh-year quarterback Cam Rising injured his throwing hand when he was driven into the Baylor water coolers. He did not play the rest of the game, the Utes bound their offense to the ground, and they coasted to a 23-12 victory.
Rising spent much of the second half on the sidelines, sans pads, with his middle and ring fingers taped together. As concerning as that may sound, he was laughing and joking with teammates, clearly telling them his hand injury was no big deal.
Cam Rising was slow to get up after this collision with the water coolers on the sideline 😬 pic.twitter.com/drn8EeAdoE
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) September 7, 2024
After the game, Utes head coach Kyle Whittingham said the injury “wasn’t too serious” and did not rule out Rising playing this week. With an easy trip to Utah State awaiting, let’s be skeptical Rising will rush back.
However, let’s not worry about Utah in the bigger picture. Kansas, Kansas State, and Oklahoma State were all stressed by inferior, more physical opponents on Saturday. The Big 12 is ripe for the Utes’ taking as a superior and more physical opponent to those contenders. That should still be the expected outcome.
Just give the Utes the natty right now. pic.twitter.com/HHtw2wA8rw
— Andrew Caley (@Covers_Caley) September 7, 2024
Douglas' advice: Hope the market overreacts to another Rising injury. If seeing Utah priced at anything higher than +275 to win the Big 12, do not hesitate. Grab that value.
Douglas' advice: The Under should have value this weekend, wth Utah committed to slowing down a game when its offense is hampered, relying on its defense to dictate terms. A Utah State team total Under should also be welcomed blindly.
Not intended for use in MA.
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