College Football Player Props and Best Bets for Week 4: Marks Continues to Ground n Pound

What’s there to be Leary about?

Let me paint a picture for you: The Kentucky Wildcats average 285 passing yards per game. They have a great receiving trio that’s among the best in the country. They upgraded at the quarterback position by acquiring NC State’s Devin Leary, one of the NCAA’s best passers across the last few seasons. In Week 4 they matchup with Vanderbilt, one of the worst pass defenses in the country, let alone to SEC and the Power 5. 

How do the books respond when they see this picture? Interestingly enough, it’s by setting Leary’s passing yardage prop to 240.5 … which is 45 yards below Kentucky’s average!

Vanderbilt had one of the worst secondaries in the nation last year, finishing 130th in EPA per pass and 125th in passing success rate. The Commodores return most of the key pieces from that unit, but we haven’t seen much improvement yet as they were gashed for 351 yards and three touchdowns by a bad Hawaii team in Week 0 and most recently surrendered 276 to a UNLV team on its backup quarterback. Clark Lea’s defense is allowing 8.4 yards per pass attempt on the year, which checks in at 104th nationally. 

The aforementioned receiving trio for Kentucky consists of Barion Brown, Dane Key, and Tayvion Robinson, who have combined for 36 receptions for 507 yards and five touchdowns this season. Vanderbilt will be in a world of trouble trying to defend this group on Saturday. It’d be very surprising to me if Leary doesn’t continue to find success under offensive coordinator Liam Coen, a man with such a bright offensive mind that he managed to help turn Will Levis into a high NFL Draft pick.

Devin Leary prop: Over 240.5 passing yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Weekly withdrawal from Banks

We’re going back to the well this week with Wake Forest wide receiver Jahmal Banks, whose receiving yardage prop is set at just 64.5 for Saturday’s clash with the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. 

The books refuse to properly price Banks and I plan on playing his receiving yards Over until they do so. It won’t hit every week of course, but if it remains around the low-to-mid 60s then it’s malpractice not to make them pay. 

Since 2018, Dave Clawson’s WR1 has averaged 74 receptions for 1,079 yards and 11 touchdowns. That’s good for an average of 83 yards per game. Banks appears to be the next man up in that lineage, as he leads the Demon Deacons in targets (21), receptions (18), receiving yards (223), and receiving touchdowns (3) through three games. 

Wake matches up with a suspect Georgia Tech defense allowing 33.3 PPG and 438.3 total yards per game on 7.2 yards per play. There’s no other way to interpret those numbers — they’re terrible! The Yellow Jackets have been torched through the air, ranking 129th in EPA per pass and 130th in passing success rate. 

Wake averages 279 passing yards per game and it’d be surprising if it didn’t take advantage of this soft matchup at home against a conference opponent. Let’s head back to Banks and hope for another withdrawal. 

Jahmal Banks prop: Over 64.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Marks the spot

Mississippi State’s move away from the Air Raid has resulted in a throwback offensive approach that means slamming the ball with the running back up the middle for the majority of offensive plays. It isn’t pretty and it likely won’t win many football games, but it definitely opens up opportunities in the player prop market, where books have been slow to adjust. 

Running back Jo’Quavious Marks has benefitted from this new scheme, racking up 325 yards and three scores through three games while also chipping in nine receptions for 90 yards. He’s the focal point of Kevin Barbay’s offensive attack as a clear workhorse — no other skill position player has more than 152 scrimmage yards. 

Marks will likely be heavily involved in the game plan again this week for a road conference matchup with the South Carolina Gamecocks. This defense has a weakness along the defensive front and that’s already been exploited a few times this season — North Carolina ran for 168 yards and two touchdowns, and Georgia ran for 190 yards and three scores last week. 

Marks is a workhorse and the books have been slow to adjust his props accordingly. This is no longer an Air Raid scheme where he’s being used primarily as a receiver — it’s quite the opposite. Expect the Bulldogs to continue pounding the ball on the ground with their bell cow running back until further notice.

Jo’Quavious Marks prop: Over 71.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)