College Football Player Props and Best Bets for Week 6: "Rocket" Lifts off vs. Rebels

Prop bet #1: Ward keeps clicking for Wazzou

The Washington State Cougars have been a fun story this season, sitting with a 4-0 record with upset wins over the Wisconsin Badgers and the Oregon State Beavers. It’s been impressive enough that Jake Dickert’s name is being thrown around in coaching search talk, and quarterback Cameron Ward has been mentioned as a dark-horse contender in the Heisman Trophy odds. 

The talk has been deserved thus far, as Ward is completing 74.5% of his passes for 9.9 yards per attempt en route to 1,389 yards and 13 touchdowns vs. zero interceptions. First-year offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle’s offense has been a resounding success, as the Cougs are averaging 405.8 passing yards per game. That’s a huge reason why they rank Top 5 in scoring offense with 45.8 points per game. 

Ward has another test Saturday on the road against the UCLA Bruins, who at first glance have played pretty well defensively this season by ranking fifth in EPA per play and 30th in success rate. I think this year’s production comes with the obvious caveat that Chip Kelly’s squad hasn’t faced a single dangerous offense yet this year, and its strength of schedule ranks 99th in the country according to ESPN’s FPI.

The Bruins are vastly improved up front this season, but I still have a ton of questions about this secondary. They return most of the pieces from a unit that was torched a season ago, surrendering 273 passing yards per game while ranking 88th in EPA per pass and 114th in passing success rate. 

I expect Washington State to pass the ball at least 40 times in this contest, which is right around its season-long average. It could even be a low projection considering UCLA is sound up front against the rush and the Cougars would be wise to repeatedly attack via the air. Ward’s passing yards prop is set at just 297.5 for Saturday, and that’s too low for me to ignore. 

As a bonus, Ward’s top target on Saturday should be Josh Kelly, and his receiving yardage prop is set at just 75.5. That’s too low considering he’s due for a massive uptick in volume with Lincoln Victor out due to injury. 

Carlos Hernandez will command a lot of targets as the top slot receiver in an offense that features that position, and yet can be had for plus money (+175) to score a touchdown.

Cameron Ward prop: Over 297.5 Passing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #2: Rocketman

Make no mistake, Raheim “Rocket” Sanders is one of the best running backs in college football. The Arkansas Razorbacks star has been slowed by injury to start the year, and it appears as though the books have forgotten just how potent he can be, as they are listing him with slight plus money to score a touchdown on Saturday against the Mississippi Rebels. 

Sanders should have become a household name last year when he rushed for 1,443 yards and 10 scores as the focal point of a potent ground attack while adding 271 receiving yards and two more scores through the air. I say that he should have been a household name because it appears his exploits are going underappreciated, at least by the books. 

Sanders returned to the field last week, and while the Hogs didn’t get enough going offensively against a very tough Texas A&M Aggies defensive front, the story should be much different in Week 6 with a softer matchup. The Rebels check in at just 92nd in EPA per play and 113th in success rate defensively. 

We’ve seen this program struggle defensively under Lane Kiffin, and this year appears no different. This is a chance for “Rocket” to get back on track as Mississippi is weak up front, ranking 119th in defensive line yards, 128th in stuff rate, and 130th in power success rate. 

The storyline of Arkansas’ season has been that the offensive line is a weakness, but it has to feel good in this matchup with huge advantages in offensive line yards (29th) and stuff rate (11th) in particular. Mississippi just surrendered seven touchdowns to the LSU Tigers, and it’d be surprising if Sanders didn’t hit paydirt on Saturday. 

Raheim Sanders Prop: Anytime TD (+105 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Badger beats the Buffaloes

There probably isn’t enough ink being spilled about Deion “Coach Prime” Sanders and his football team, so allow me to take this space to cover them a bit more. 

Snark aside, the Colorado Buffaloes have been all offense and little defense this year, ranking 127th in scoring defense (36.2 PPG) while allowing 480.2 total yards on 6.5 yards per play. This creates an environment where their games see a lot of offense and therefore are a joy to target in formats like DFS or the player prop market in which offensive output is rewarded. 

The Buffaloes check into Week 6 ranking 124th in EPA per play and 127th in success rate on defense. The secondary has been particularly vulnerable, getting torched to the tune of 123rd in EPA per pass and third-worst (131st nationally) in passing success rate. They need Travis Hunter back ASAP, but unfortunately for Coach Prime, Hunter is still out with a lacerated liver. 

This week’s beneficiary of a soft matchup against this defense is the Arizona State Sun Devils, who will be playing in their home confines in Tempe. First-year head coach Kenny Dillingham took over the offense two weeks ago and it’s no coincidence that the team has responded with its two most productive outings of the season over the last two weeks. They scored 28 points on 5.0 yards per play against the USC Trojans, and managed 430 total yards on 6.0 yards per play against the California Golden Bears. 

Dillingham gave a statement to media members this week that he needs to get the ball in the hands of top wide receiver Elijhah Badger as much as possible. That’s a wise thing to say as Badger is this team’s top offensive weapon and could do some serious damage against this flammable Colorado secondary. 

Badger’s receiving yardage prop is set at 58.5 for Saturday, which is too low. He’s eclipsed that number in three of five games this season despite having to deal with four different quarterbacks under center in what’s been an injury-riddled start to the year for the Sun Devils. He averaged 72.2 receiving yards per game last season, and that would seem like a more accurate number than this deflated number that is begging for me to bet the Over. I’ll oblige. 

Elijhah Badger Prop: Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel)