The Iowa Hawkeyes head West for a Week 11 date with the UCLA Bruins.
Kirk Ferentz’s team is rolling, winning five of its last seven games, with those victories coming by an average margin of 23.2 points. UCLA has shown improvement lately, winning two straight after a miserable start to the year.
Read on for my Iowa vs. UCLA predictions and college football picks for Friday, November 8
Iowa vs UCLA predictions
Early spread lean
UCLA +6.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
At the start of the Deshaun Foster era, the UCLA Bruins looked like a throwaway team, losing five of their first six games. Even the win was unimpressive, coming by just three points against Hawaii, a non-Power Conference team.
Things have turned around over UCLA’s last three games, however. First was a narrow 21-17 loss to Minnesota in which UCLA grabbed the lead six minutes into the game and held it for the majority of the contest until a Darius Taylor touchdown resulted in yet another loss.
The offense came to life the following week in a 35-32 win over Rutgers, averaging 6.9 yards per play. Quarterback Ethan Garbers was dealing, completing 32 of 38 passes for 383 yards and four touchdowns.
Eric Bieniemy’s offense continued to click after the bye, averaging 6.5 yards per play in last week’s 27-20 victory over Nebraska. Garbers was again at his finest, completing 68% of his passes for 8.8 yards per attempt while throwing for 219 yards and two scores.
This Bruins team isn’t a world-beater, but it's far from the awful team that it was to start the Foster era. Bieniemy’s scheme was always going to take time to implement and the early struggles are understandable, but this is a team that ranks 29th in 247’s team talent composite.
This wasn’t supposed to be an incompetent group, so some of the late improvement should carry over from week to week.
The Iowa Hawkeyes are a one-dimensional team that can move the ball on the ground (13th in rush rate, 29th in EPA per rush) but not through the air (124th in pass rate, 99th in passing success rate).
This plays into UCLA’s strengths and weaknesses defensively. The Bruins surrender just 3.3 yards per rush and have not allowed a single opponent to top 155 rushing yards.
They rank third in rushing explosiveness and should — at least on paper — bottle up big runs from Iowa superstar running back Kaleb Johnson (1,388 scrimmage yards, 20 touchdowns). A faulty secondary (126th in passing success rate) won’t be tested like usual.
This will be a slow-paced game with limited possessions, which favors the underdog. Iowa's traveling across multiple timezones and has been vulnerable on the road, losing twice by an average margin of 20 points.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 44.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
This should be an extremely slow-paced game, as the Hawkeyes rank 115th in my tempo metric, while the Bruins are even more methodical at 125th. If you’re a fan of more old-fashioned statistics, consider that Iowa is 124th in plays per game (60.6) while UCLA is 126th (60.0).
Iowa’s team is fairly straightforward in that it typically loses the game when it doesn’t run the ball well. Their two lowest rushing yardage outputs came in a 28-point loss to Ohio State (116 yards on 4.3 yards per carry) and a 12-point loss to Michigan State (133 yards on 5.8 yards per carry — numbers skewed by a 75-yard Johnson rush near the end of the game).
UCLA typically doesn’t allow big rushing games despite having faced a very difficult schedule to date. It limited LSU to 102 yards on 3.6 yards per carry and Penn State to 85 yards and 2.8 yards per tote, and even No. 1 Oregon (153 yards on 4.3 yards per carry) didn’t run wild.
If Iowa is forced to move the ball through the air more than usual, good luck. The Hawkeyes have thrown for 155 yards against just one FBS team (Troy) and no Power Conference teams.
On the flip side, UCLA’s offensive performance is certainly an encouraging sign, but will it continue here in a difficult matchup? Phil Parker’s defense has tightened the screws since an uncharacteristically leaky start to the year, holding its last two opponents to 12 ppg and 212 total yards per game.
The book on the Bruins offensively is that they have talent but aren’t able to block well, especially not against Big Ten teams. They’ve flipped that script lately with back-to-back impressive games but still rank just 133rd in line yards and 126th in stuff rate overall.
The Hawkeyes have racked up 11 TFLs in their last two games and are playing their best defensive ball of the year, so they’ll put that improved Bruins offensive line to the test.
Iowa vs UCLA live odds
Not intended for use in MA.
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