As Miami (Ohio) looks to be the first repeat champ in the MAC in over a decade, the RedHawks will need to bring their best to Muncie, Indiana for Tuesday’s MACtion matchup with Ball State.
To do that, the RedHawks will need to continue playing like they have the last few weeks, and my Miami (Ohio) vs. Ball State predictions and college football picks for Tuesday, November 5 expect them to in the rainy conditions.
Miami (Ohio) vs Ball State prediction and best bet
My best bet
Miami (Ohio) -12.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
One of the biggest reasons MACtion is beloved by college football fans is because of the impact the weather has on the games in November in the Midwest. This matchup has a chance to really come through in that department.
When the game kicks off at 8 p.m. ET in Muncie on Tuesday night, the Weather Network is forecasting a 70% chance of precipitation with 15 mph winds. I would have taken Miami (Ohio) to cover in this game regardless, but a windy and wet game favors the RedHawks even more.
Despite a slow start to the season, as of late Miami (Ohio) looks far more like the team that opened the year as the favorite to win the conference. The RedHawks have covered in three straight games and outscored their opponents 114 to 41.
They were the favorite in all three games, and that includes blowing out Central Michigan 46-7 as a 10.5-point favorite. While I don’t expect this game to be that much of a shellacking, Ball State is one of the worst programs in the country.
Mike Neu’s team has just two FBS wins, and one of those came against a Kent State team that’s 0-8 thus far. The Cardinals are 126th out of 134 teams in SP+ and their defense is 131st.
That opens the door for Miami (Ohio)’s run game to go crazy in the ugly weather. Running back Keyon Mozee has been a breakout star with four 100-plus-yard rushing performances in his last five games.
Mozee should be able to expose a Ball State defense that’s 123rd in EPA per rush on defense. And RedHawks’ QB Brett Gabbert is a steady hand behind center who can be trusted to move the ball even in non-ideal weather - he’s thrown eight touchdowns and zero interceptions during Miami (Ohio)’s win streak.
And I wouldn’t worry about the Cardinals keeping up. Their offense ranks outside of the top 110 in both EPA per dropback and rush while the RedHawks have one of the best defenses in the Group of Five - it’s 51st in SP+.
I think Miami (Ohio) takes this one somewhere in the range of 27-10.
Miami (Ohio) vs Ball State same-game parlay (SGP)
Miami (Ohio) -11.5
Under 48.5
Keyon Mozee anytime TD
The two reasons I like this Under are because I just don’t see Ball State being able to score all that much against a Miami (Ohio) defense that’s top 65 in EPA per dropback and rush, and because of the weather.
So even with the Cardinals’ defense being brutal, the rain should slow Miami (Ohio)’s scoring to some extent in this one. With that said, Mozee is still in perfect position to find the end zone.
While Mozee has just two touchdowns in his five games as a key contributor, he’s proven to be a big play back. He’s forced 22 missed tackles, had 12 runs of 10-plus yards, and rushed for 329 yards after contact in his five games. That explosiveness will help him score against Ball State.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Miami (Ohio) vs Ball State odds
Miami (Ohio) vs Ball State live odds
Miami (Ohio) vs Ball State opening odds
- Miami (Ohio) vs. Ball State spread: Ball State +10.5
- Miami (Ohio) vs. Ball State moneyline: Miami (Ohio) -450, Ball State +350
- Miami (Ohio) vs. Ball State Over/Under: 49.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Miami (Ohio) vs Ball State spread and Over/Under analysis
- Miami (Ohio) opened between a 10.5 and 13-point favorite with most books now offering the RedHawks between -12 and -12.5.
- Miami (Ohio) is just 4-4 ATS, but it’s covered in three straight, while Ball State is 5-3 and has covered in two of its last three.
- The Over/Under opened as high as 50.5, but has since come down to between 48.5 and 49 at most sportsbooks.
- The RedHawks are 4-4 betting the Over and have it the Over in four straight while the Cardinals are among the best over teams in the country at 7-1.
Miami (Ohio) vs Ball State betting trend to know
Miami (Ohio) has hit the moneyline in eight of its last 13 games (+4.15 Units / 12% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Miami (Ohio) vs Ball State.
Miami (Ohio) vs Ball State game info
| Location: | Scheumann Stadium, Muncie, IN |
| Date: | Tuesday, 11-5, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Miami (Ohio) vs Ball State latest injuries
Miami (Ohio) vs Ball State weather
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