College Football Player Props & Best Bets: Williams Carves Up Cavaliers' Secondary

Prop bet #1: Antonio Williams 55+ receiving yards

Best odds: -115 at DraftKings

Clemson Tigers wide receiver Antonio Williams was featured in this player props column a week ago and was an easy cash against Wake Forest. I'm going right back to the well at a similar number in another favorable matchup against the Virginia Cavaliers. 

No. 10 Clemson’s offense didn’t click last year, but it sure is in 2024. The Tigers are scoring 41.0 ppg while averaging 482.3 total yards on 7.0 yards per play.

The advanced metrics are favorable as well: They rank seventh in EPA per play and have an effective line (10th in line yards, 12th in power success rate), rushing attack (sixth in EPA per rush), and passing attack (22nd in EPA per pass, 28th in passing success rate). 

Quarterback Cade Klubnik will be a bonafide Heisman contender if he keeps up his play, as he’s completed 66.8% of his passes 1,528 yards and 17 touchdowns to just two interceptions. 

The passing attack, in particular, sets up well in Week 8 against a Virginia defense stronger on the ground (48th in EPA per rush) than through the air (93rd in EPA per pass). The Cavaliers allowed Wake Forest to throw for over 400 yards and Coastal Carolina to go over 300 yards, so Klubnik and company are more than capable of having a big day. 

Williams is the player who has the most value in the betting market, as he leads the team in targets (33), receptions (25), receiving yards (353), and receiving touchdowns (five). True freshman Bryant Wesco missed last week’s game and is uncertain to suit up, meaning a large responsibility will fall on the shoulders of Williams yet again. 

The books have not adjusted their numbers accordingly, so I’m betting on Williams to record at least 55 receiving yards.

Prop bet #2: Josh McCray 11+ receiving yards

Best odds: -115 at DraftKings

The No. 22 Illinois Fighting Illini have a big matchup against the No. 24 Michigan Wolverines at home in a ranked-on-ranked Big Ten conference game.

The Illini will be without starting running back Kaden Feagin for the second straight week and perhaps the foreseeable future after he hyperextended his left leg, leaving Josh McCray as the next up. 

McCray filled the void admirably in Week 7 against Purdue, handling 16 carries for 78 yards and two scores while chipping in three receptions for 46 yards and another score. It’s the receiving work I’m particularly interested in, as the big RB also caught two passes for 38 yards in the prior game against Penn State. 

Barry Lunney Jr. likes to get him involved in the screen game, and it’s easy to see why, as he’s a dangerous weapon in that area. One would think that’s a part of the game plan again against a Michigan defense susceptible to RBs in the receiving game. 

Here’s what some opposing running backs have done through the air against Michigan:

1. Washington’s Jonah Coleman and Cameron Davis: combined two receptions for 50 yards.
2. Minnesota’s Darius Taylor: 10 receptions for 52 yards.
3. USC’s Woody Marks: five receptions for 40 yards.
4. Texas’ Jaydon Blue: six receptions for 37 yards and a touchdown.

McCray broke onto the scene in 2021 as a freshman, accumulating 592 scrimmage yards and two scores. He’s had two forgettable years since then while battling through injuries, but there’s no doubt he’s a talented player capable of contributing at this level. 

Illinois needs him in this big matchup, and he dominated the backfield touches a week ago, so it’d be a surprise if he’s not utilized on a few screens again in Week 8.

Prop bet #3: Seydou Traore 28+ receiving yards

Best odds: -115 at DraftKings

Let’s buy another low number here by taking Seydou Traore to record 28 or more receiving yards against the Texas A&M Aggies. 

Traore sat out the 2023 season, transferring to Colorado before quickly changing his mind and landing in Starkville. He’s been a big part of the Mississippi State Bulldogs’ plans, ranking second on the team with 28 targets, and this number is too low for me to avoid. 

The former soccer player has gone Over this number in four of his last five games, averaging 37.2 receiving yards in that span, with the sole miss coming on the road against Texas.

The Aggies have a fearsome defense, but this isn’t a terrible matchup as it’s at Davis Wade Stadium, and the Bulldogs expect to be playing from behind as 17.5-point underdogs per BetMGM. 

Tight ends have given this defense fits at times this season. Bowling Green’s Harold Fannin Jr. went wild with eight receptions for 145 yards and a score, while Florida’s Arlis Boardingham had his most productive outing of the year with five receptions for 42 yards. 

It’s been a tough first season in Starkville for Jeff Lebby, but he’s a bright offensive mind, and there were signs of progress on that side of the ball a week ago when his team scored 31 points against Georgia.

True freshman quarterback Michael Van Buren breathed life into the offense, throwing for 306 yards and three scores.

Mississippi State is so bad on defense it’ll need the offense to pick up some slack. The Bulldogs rank dead last in success rate on defense and 125th in EPA per play while surrendering 465.8 total yards per game. 

I’ll bet on Traore going Over this number for the fifth time in six games.