It’s always a special treat when there’s a nightcap game on the island to close out another lovely college football Saturday.
That’s the case in Week 7 as the No. 17 Boise State Broncos (4-1) look to create some separation in the Mountain West standings as they visit the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (2-3).
Despite the national focus being heavily shaded toward Ashton Jeanty, my Boise State vs. Hawai’i predictions are zeroing in on Rainbow Warriors quarterback Brayden Schager. Read more in my college football picks for October 12.
Boise State vs Hawai'i prediction and best bet
My best bet
Brayden Schager Over 247.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
In case you haven’t heard, the Boise State Broncos have quite the running back on their roster. Ashton Jeanty leads the nation with 1,031 yards gained on the ground, well clear of Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson (771) in second. He’s already found the end zone a whopping 16 times and is far and away the most dominant force in the sport.
Wait, what’s that? Sources are telling me that this article’s best bet is not, in fact, on one of Jeanty’s props for Week 7.
How’s that? Allow me to explain.
Jeanty is a fantastic player and he changes the calculus of any game in which he takes part. His props are juiced to the gills, but we can target other players affected by his sheer presence on the field.
The Broncos rank second in EPA per play and fourth in explosiveness, primarily thanks to Jeanty’s otherworldliness on the ground (first in EPA per rush and rushing explosiveness). The Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors will need to score points to stay in this game considering the firepower coming at them on the other side.
Boise has been all too willing to allow other teams to move the ball, ranking 114th in EPA per play and 130th in explosiveness on defense. Those numbers aren’t even close to befitting of a playoff contender, and it’s due to Jeanty alone that the Broncos remain in that discussion.
Hawai’i will need to throw the ball to keep pace, but that’s not going to be a problem considering the Rainbow Warriors boast the highest pass rate (66.1%) in the nation. Quarterback Brayden Schager is a four-year starter averaging 265.6 passing yards per game, so he appears up to the challenge.
Schager’s passing yardage prop is set at 247.5 and he’s eclipsed that number in eight of his last 13 contests. The game script calls for a healthy amount of passing volume, so give me the Over.
Boise State vs Hawai'i same-game parlay (SGP)
Hawai'i +20.5
Over 59.5
This is an interesting matchup because Hawai’i has played well above expectation on defense, ranking 10th in success rate. The big boys up front have been disruptive, ranking eighth in front-seven havoc, and the rush defense in general has been a strength (33rd in PFF’s rush defense grade).
That doesn't necessarily mean that the Rainbow Warriors will be able to shut down Jeanty, but it does show that they’ll provide more resistance than most teams.
Meanwhile, Boise State’s defense hasn’t just been bad... it’s been terrible. The Broncos were underwhelming on that side of the ball for much of 2023 as well, so it’s concerning that the unit has regressed despite returning a ton of production.
Hawai’i is catching a ton of points here as a pass-first unit built to play from behind. Timmy Chang’s squad is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games at home and has shown a lot of verve on the defensive side of the ball, which is encouraging for such a big underdog.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Boise State vs Hawai'i odds
Boise State vs Hawai'i live odds
Boise State vs Hawai'i opening odds
- Boise State vs. Hawai'i spread: Hawai'i -21.5
- Boise State vs. Hawai'i moneyline: Boise State -2,000, Hawai'i +1,000
- Boise State vs. Hawai'i Over/Under: 61.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Boise State vs Hawai'i spread and Over/Under analysis
- Hawai’i has been a covering machine in conference play, going 7-2 ATS in its last nine games against Mountain West foes.
- Boise State has gone Over the total in seven of its last 10 games.
- Contrarily, Hawai’i has hit the Under in seven of its last 10 games.
Boise State vs Hawai'i betting trend to know
Hawai’i is 7-1 ATS in its last seven home games. Find more college football betting trends for Boise State vs Hawai'i.
Boise State vs Hawai'i game info
| Location: | Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex, Honolulu, HI |
| Date: | Saturday, 10-12, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 11:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBSSN |
Boise State vs Hawai'i latest injuries
Boise State vs Hawai'i weather
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