Every college football bettor knows how hard it is to predict the results of bowl games once we know the matchups and college football odds.
Predicting the 82-team jigsaw puzzle ahead of time? Well, it's even harder; fitting teams into conference tie-ins to bowls and wondering how the Pac-12 is so entertaining this season... yet will probably end up with just seven bowl-eligible teams, leaving two of its usual slots unfilled.
Some of that is actually a credit to the Pac -12 this season, on track for both a College Football Playoff team and a New Year’s Six entrant, and thus not needing the Gasparilla Bowl or the First Responders Bowl.
These projections on college football futures are based on a handful of things: I begin with those conference tie-ins and also consider the general want to avoid trips back to recent bowl locations and a little bit of hope for some curious matchups.
To fill out the 82 openings, all scheduled games were presumed to be won by the team already favored this weekend and the better team in current power ratings when looking further forward.
That left nine more spots, two of which quickly went to James Madison and Jacksonville State, much to the NCAA’s chagrin as both become eligible for a bowl game if there are not enough .500 teams to fill all 41 games — and it looks extremely unlikely there will be enough.
The remaining seven spots were filled in by order of APR rankings among teams expected to finish 5-7.
So, without further ado, here's the first crack at our college football bowl game projections for 2023 ahead of Week 11.
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Updated college football bowl projections for November 6
December 16
Myrtle Beach Bowl: James Madison vs. Miami of Ohio
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Liberty vs. Troy
Avocados from Mexico Cure Bowl: Rice vs. South Alabama
Isleta New Mexico Bowl: Colorado State vs. Western Kentucky
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl: Central Florida vs Georgia State
LA Bowl hosted by Gronk: Fresno State vs. Arizona
The Wildcats were last bowl eligible in 2017. This return to the postseason makes far too much sense, playing in front of their most recent inductee into the University of Arizona Sports Hall of Fame, Rob Gronkowski.
December 18
Bahamas Bowl: Jacksonville State vs Wyoming
This game may be renamed, as it is being played in Myrtle Beach, S.C. this year with plans to return to the Bahamas in 2024.
December 19
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl: FAU vs. Georgia Southern
December 21
Roofclaim.com Boca Raton Bowl: South Florida vs. Coastal Carolina
December 22
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Auburn
December 23
Camellia Bowl: Ohio vs. Appalachian State
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Northern Illinois vs. UNLV
68 Ventures Bowl: Bowling Green vs. Marshall
Birmingham Bowl: Louisiana vs. Florida
Gators head coach Billy Napier tries to beat some familiar faces.
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl: Oregon State vs Nebraska
Easypost Hawai’i Bowl: Memphis vs. Air Force
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl: Northwestern vs. New Mexico State
No coach in the country, aside from those on the sidelines of the service academies, regularly dresses more appropriately for this game than NMSU's Jerry Kill... and his predilection for camouflage. Meanwhile, credit should be heaped onto Wildcats interim head coach David Braun for getting Northwestern to four wins thus far — and quite possibly a fifth yet to come — which would then propel the No. 1 APR program to a bowl game.
December 26
Quick Lane Bowl: Illinois vs. Toledo
Servpro First Responder Bowl: Syracuse vs. Texas State
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Minnesota vs. Iowa State
December 27
Military Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. UTSA
Duke’s Mayo Bowl: Clemson vs. Wisconsin
TaxAct Texas Bowl: Kansas vs. Missouri
The first Border War since 2011.
DirecTV Holiday Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Utah
The Holiday Bowl politicked to reel in Notre Dame last year, delaying some bowl announcements by a couple of hours. It lost out to the Gator Bowl then, but that want has undoubtedly not waned — and the Irish facing one-time leading offensive coordinator candidate Andy Ludwig would create some easy headlines.
December 28
Wasabi Fenway Bowl: North Carolina State vs. SMU
Pop-Tarts Bowl: North Carolina vs. Kansas State
Valera Alamo Bowl: Oklahoma vs. UCLA
USC could fit in here, but the Trojans administration absolutely would buck at the thought of Lincoln Riley facing his old team... and the melodrama that would accompany.
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl: Boston College vs. Rutgers
New York City’s college football team actually gets to play in New York City.
December 29
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl: Duke vs. Tennessee
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl: Miami vs. USC
AutoZone Liberty Bowl: West Virginia vs. Mississippi State
Goodyear Cotton Bowl: Ohio State vs. Texas
Against anyone else, the Longhorns would turn AT&T Stadium entirely orange... but Buckeyes’ fans travel strongly enough, so the stands could be 50/50.
December 30
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: Mississippi vs. Tulane
TransPerfect Music City Bowl: Maryland vs. Texas A&M
Capital One Orange Bowl: Louisville vs. Alabama
Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl: Eastern Michigan vs. Boise State
January 1
ReliaQuest Bowl: Kentucky vs. Iowa
Fun fact: Wildcats head coach Mark Stoops played at Iowa in the late 1980s.
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl: Penn State vs. LSU
VRBO Fiesta Bowl: Washington vs. Oklahoma State
Rose Bowl (CFP Semifinal): Michigan vs. Florida State
Allstate Sugar Bowl (CFP Semifinal): Georgia vs. Oregon
January 8
CFP National Championship: Rose Bowl winner vs. Sugar Bowl winner
Schools already CFB bowl eligible
AAC
Tulane (8-1), 
SMU (7-2), 
Memphis (7-2), 
UTSA (6-3)
ACC
Florida State (9-0), 
Louisville (8-1), 
North Carolina (7-2), 
Duke (6-3), 
Boston College (6-3), 
North Carolina State (6-3), 
Miami (6-3)
ACC-adjacent
Notre Dame (7-3)
As part of its pseudo-membership with the ACC, has access to all the conference’s bowl tie-ins (aside from the Orange Bowl, which its third loss precluded, anyway)
Big 12
Texas (8-1), 
Oklahoma State (7-2), 
Kansas (7-2), 
Oklahoma (7-2), 
Kansas State (6-3), 
West Virginia (6-3)
Big Ten
Michigan (9-0), 
Ohio State (9-0), 
Penn State (8-1), 
Iowa (7-2), 
Rutgers (6-3)
Conference USA
Liberty (9-0), 
New Mexico State (7-3), 
Jacksonville State (7-3)*
MAC
Toledo (8-1), 
Miami (OH) (7-2), 
Ohio (6-3)
Mountain West
Air Force (8-1), 
Fresno State (8-1), 
UNLV (7-2), 
Wyoming (6-3)
Pac-12
Washington (9-0), 
Oregon (8-1), 
USC (7-3), 
Oregon State (7-2), 
Utah (7-2), 
Arizona (6-3), 
California (6-3)
SEC
Georgia (9-0), 
Alabama (8-1), 
Mississippi (8-1), 
Missouri (7-2), 
Tennessee (7-2), 
Kentucky (6-3), 
LSU (6-3)
Sun Belt
Troy (7-2), 
Coastal Carolina (6-3), 
Georgia Southern (6-3), 
Texas State (6-3), 
Georgia State (6-3), 
James Madison (9-0)*
*Becomes eligible if there are not 82 six-win teams
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