Minnesota, Florida Atlantic, and Washington State have no one to blame but themselves. All were on pace to reach bowl games before this past weekend, though the Cougars would have needed to pull off a small upset on the road at Cal as 1.5-point underdogs. If criticizing Washington State for botching that opportunity at a fifth win sounds harsh, then remember the Cougars began the season 4-0 and have now lost six straight to just about eliminate any hopes of a postseason.
Florida Atlantic falling to East Carolina on Saturday knocked the Owls to 4-6, and they now need to upset Tulane this week in order to keep any College Football Playoff chances alive.
And then there's Minnesota getting routed by Purdue to quite possibly doom a path to a bowl game. The Gophers will have a chance to close the season if they upset Wisconsin for Paul Bunyan’s Axe. Until Minnesota does that, though, these college football futures predictions will leave off the Gophers.
In their places, Texas Tech and Virginia Tech surged in the college football odds this week, joining Central Florida and Northwestern as suddenly viable bowl options. Those latter two were already in a position to slide in as 5-7 teams thanks to their APR scores, but upsetting Oklahoma State and Wisconsin, respectively, set them toward outright 6-6 status.
The Hokies simply need to beat either North Carolina State or Virginia to enjoy a sixth win, which is certainly plausible. Thus, welcome to the predictions.
These projections become something of a game of dominos. Take the Orange Bowl and its effects, for example. Who would the Playoff selection committee rank higher, 11-2 Alabama coming off a tight loss to Georgia or 11-1 Ohio State after getting routed by Michigan? The bowl season laid out below thinks the Tide would get that edge and thus the bid to the Orange Bowl. It has more Top-20 wins and would stand to benefit from the committee’s usual SEC bias.
That distinction then sends a Big Ten team, rather than an ACC team, to the ReliaQuest Bowl on Jan. 1, obviously impacting a handful more bowl games for each of those conferences. Those changes can then alter possible opponents due to storylines and avoiding rematches. And so on.
Such changes, both last week’s upsets and the dominos that influence things further — Oklahoma State and Mississippi falling out of the New Year’s Six, replaced by Penn State and Missouri, shift a whole other set of thoughts — create this week’s projections, again beginning with conference tie-ins and presuming the team favored this week will win and the better team in current power ratings will when looking further forward.
That process left seven spots, two of which quickly went to James Madison and Jacksonville State. The remaining five spots were filled in by order of APR rankings among teams expected to finish 5-7.
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Updated college football bowl projections for November 13
December 16
Myrtle Beach Bowl: James Madison vs. Liberty
This could be an unbeaten matchup, a remarkable way to kick off bowl season, and a game that would deserve plenty of hype.
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Troy vs. New Mexico State
Avocados from Mexico Cure Bowl: South Florida vs. Texas State
Isleta New Mexico Bowl: Colorado State vs. Western Kentucky
LA Bowl hosted by Gronk: Fresno State vs. Arizona
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl: West Virginia vs. Marshall
The in-state rivals have not met since 2012, the last of a seven-year annual series. Reviving it on the first day of bowl season would be one of the delights of these exhibitions.
December 18
Bahamas Bowl: Jacksonville State vs Ohio
This game may be renamed, as it is being played in Myrtle Beach, S.C. this year with plans to return to the Bahamas in 2024.
December 19
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl: Wyoming vs. Georgia Southern
December 21
Roofclaim.com Boca Raton Bowl: Rice vs. Coastal Carolina
December 22
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl: Syracuse vs. South Alabama
December 23
Camellia Bowl: Miami (OH) vs. Appalachian State
Don’t sleep on the potential of this matchup; it could be one of the best games of bowl season if a reality.
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Northern Illinois vs. UNLV
68 Ventures Bowl: Bowling Green vs. Georgia State
Birmingham Bowl: Louisiana vs. Florida
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl: USC vs. Rutgers
In case you are wondering, the Trojans’ QB2 is junior Miller Moss, 23-of-32 this season for 309 yards and one touchdown.
Easypost Hawai’i Bowl: Tulane vs. Air Force
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl: Central Florida vs. the winner of Army-Navy on Dec. 9
By upsetting UAB this past weekend, the Midshipmen kept bowl hopes alive, furthered by now being favored by a field goal against East Carolina on Saturday. Win that and Navy would be a victory against Army away from reaching six wins. That is the likelihood, but let’s give Army a nod here, expected to be 4-7 entering that game. Its APR is high enough to be one of those exemptions if it can notch a fifth win. But bowls will not hold two spots open, so expect just this one slot in a familiar locale to be held, adding further stakes to the annual standalone matchup.
December 26
Quick Lane Bowl: Nebraska vs. Toledo
Servpro First Responder Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Texas State
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Northwestern vs. Kansas
December 27
Military Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. UTSA
Duke’s Mayo Bowl: Clemson vs. Texas A&M
Presumably, the Aggies will have a new head coach by late December after firing Jimbo Fisher on Sunday, but the new coach will almost assuredly not coach the bowl game, though he will certainly be in attendance and probably pop up in the broadcast booth.
TaxAct Texas Bowl: Iowa State vs. Auburn
DirecTV Holiday Bowl: North Carolina State vs. Utah
December 28
Wasabi Fenway Bowl: Duke vs. Memphis
Pop-Tarts Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma
Valera Alamo Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. UCLA
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl: Boston College vs. Illinois
December 29
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl: North Carolina vs. LSU
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl: Miami vs. Oregon State
Miami has some bad memories at the Sun Bowl, losing 20-14 to Washington State in 2015 and 33-17 to Notre Dame in 2010.
AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Kansas State vs. Mississippi State
Goodyear Cotton Bowl: Ohio State vs. Texas
A prime opportunity for the next great Buckeyes receiver to reveal himself.
December 30
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: Missouri vs. SMU
At this point, pencil in the AAC champion to a New Year’s Six bowl. The top of the conference is a delightful chase, so it is anyone’s guess who will win it, but from a power rating perspective, the Mustangs get the edge.
TransPerfect Music City Bowl: Maryland vs. Kentucky
Capital One Orange Bowl: Louisville vs. Alabama
Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl: Eastern Michigan vs. Boise State
January 1
ReliaQuest Bowl: Tennessee vs. Wisconsin
Penn State moving into a New Year’s Six bowl also moves each Big Ten team up a slot, bringing even the struggling Badgers to a New Year’s Day appearance.
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl: Mississippi vs. Iowa
VRBO Fiesta Bowl: Washington vs. Penn State
Rose Bowl (CFP Semifinal): Michigan vs. Florida State
Allstate Sugar Bowl (CFP Semifinal): Georgia vs. Oregon
January 8
CFP National Championship: Rose Bowl winner vs. Sugar Bowl winner
Schools already CFB bowl eligible
AAC
Tulane (9-1), 
SMU (8-2), 
Memphis (8-2), 
UTSA (7-3)
ACC
Florida State (10-0), 
Louisville (9-1), 
North Carolina (8-2), 
Duke (6-4), 
Boston College (6-4), 
North Carolina State (7-3), 
Miami (6-4), 
Clemson (6-4)
ACC-adjacent
Notre Dame (7-3)
Notre Dame is bowl-eligible at 7-3 and, as part of its pseudo-membership with the ACC, has access to all the conference’s bowl tie-ins aside from the Orange Bowl, which its third loss precluded, anyway.
Big 12
Texas (9-1), 
Oklahoma State (7-3), 
Kansas (7-3), 
Oklahoma (8-2), 
Kansas State (7-3), 
West Virginia (6-4)
Big Ten
Michigan (10-0), 
Ohio State (10-0), 
Penn State (8-2), 
Iowa (8-2), 
Rutgers (6-4), 
Maryland (6-4)
Conference USA
Liberty (10-0), 
New Mexico State (8-3), 
Jacksonville State (7-3)*
MAC
Toledo (9-1), 
Miami (OH) (8-2), 
Ohio (7-3), 
Bowling Green (6-4)
Mountain West
Air Force (8-2), 
Fresno State (8-2), 
UNLV (8-2), 
Wyoming (6-4)
Pac-12
Washington (10-0), 
Oregon (9-1), 
USC (7-4), 
Oregon State (8-2), 
Utah (7-3), 
Arizona (7-3), 
UCLA(6-4)
SEC
Georgia (10-0), 
Alabama (9-1), 
Mississippi (8-2), 
Missouri (8-2), 
Tennessee (7-3), 
Kentucky (6-4), 
LSU (7-3), 
Texas A&M (6-4), 
Auburn (6-4)
Sun Belt
Troy (8-2), 
Coastal Carolina (7-3), 
Georgia Southern (6-4), 
Texas State (6-4), 
Georgia State (6-4), 
James Madison (10-0)*
*Becomes eligible if there are not 82 six-win teams
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