Hold your breath, Jacksonville State. That is if the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl will wait for Army or Navy to notch its sixth win in their Dec. 9 meeting.
Enough teams have sprung college football odds upsets of late that if every favorite won this weekend, we would have 80 teams bowl eligible for 82 bowls. Some of this week’s spreads have strayed from previous presumptions of power rankings’ bias simply because bowl eligibility is on the line.
Consider Northwestern’s trip to Illinois. In the coaching job of the year, Wildcats interim-turned-permanent head coach David Bruan has them bowl-eligible with time to spare, 6-5 currently. Upsetting Wisconsin two weeks ago and beating Purdue as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday spurred Northwestern that much further beyond any expectations.
Thus, it is now a 5.5- or 6-point underdog at Illinois this weekend, a game that would have been within a field goal otherwise. The Illini need the win to reach 6-6, and need the win to be officially bowl-eligible, and that motivation gets factored into the final week of the season.
The same can be said of Georgia State’s trip to Old Dominion. The Panthers have lost four games in a row, but they started the season 6-1, reaching bowl eligibility plenty quickly. Meanwhile, the Monarchs need one more win. Typically, this game would have been right about a pick’em. Instead, Old Dominion is a 2.5-point favorite.
These bowl projections presume all favorites win this weekend, then lean into conference tie-ins to assign postseason destinations. That process comes up with 80 bowl-eligible teams, the Army-Navy game guaranteeing an 81st, something that some bowl should be willing to wait for. By these numbers, well, Jacksonville State will end up on the outside looking in despite its current 8-3 record, thanks to the NCAA denying its waiver for immediate postseason eligibility during the second season of its transition from the FCS ranks.
James Madison would assuredly slide into that final spot first, at 10-1, and held back by the same NCAA ruling.
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Updated college football bowl projections for November 20
December 16
Myrtle Beach Bowl: James Madison vs. Liberty
This will no longer be an unbeaten matchup, so the focus would tilt toward Liberty’s chase of a perfect 14-0 season.
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Troy vs. New Mexico State
Avocados from Mexico Cure Bowl: South Florida vs. Georgia State
Isleta New Mexico Bowl: San Jose State vs. Western Kentucky
LA Bowl hosted by Gronk: Fresno State vs. Georgia Southern
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl: West Virginia vs. Utah
December 18
Bahamas Bowl: Arkansas State vs. Utah State
Being held in Myrtle Beach for a year, the Bahamas Bowl needed to be rebranded and found its corporate partner this week.
December 19
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl: Rice vs Old Dominion
December 21
Roofclaim.com Boca Raton Bowl: Wyoming vs South Alabama
December 22
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl: Syracuse vs. Louisiana
December 23
Camellia Bowl: Miami (OH) vs. Appalachian State
Don’t sleep on the potential of this matchup; it could be one of the best games of bowl season if a reality.
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Texas State vs. Colorado State
68 Ventures Bowl: Bowling Green vs. Coastal Carolina
Birmingham Bowl: Ohio vs. Marshall
Ohio vs. Marshall — Another Group of Five matchup that could attract a football-loving audience, a quality game on paper.
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl: UCLA vs. Maryland
Projecting Memphis to the Hawai’i Bowl is an effort at a make-good, after the Tigers’ appearance in the game was canceled in 2021 after Memphis was already on the island because Hawaii, the football team, suffered a COVID outbreak.
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl: Central Florida vs. the winner of Army-Navy on Dec. 9
On a two-game winning steak, Navy needs just one more to reach a bowl game. That is unlikely this weekend at SMU, though, meaning both the Midshipmen and Army will be 5-6 when they meet in the last game of the regular season. With that guarantee of a team reaching 6-6, a spot should be held for the winner.
December 26
Quick Lane Bowl: Rutgers vs. Toledo
Servpro First Responder Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Texas Tech
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Nebraska vs. Iowa State
December 27
Military Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. UTSA
Duke’s Mayo Bowl: Clemson vs. Texas A&M
Presumably, the Aggies will have a new head coach by late December after firing Jimbo Fisher on Sunday, but the new coach will almost assuredly not coach the bowl game, though he will certainly be in attendance and probably pop up in the broadcast booth.
TaxAct Texas Bowl: Kansas vs. UNLV
DirecTV Holiday Bowl: North Carolina State vs. Oregon State
December 28
Wasabi Fenway Bowl: Duke vs. Tulane
Pop-Tarts Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma
The Trojans have fallen too far to be sent to the Las Vegas Bowl, no offense intended to the Alamo Bowl.
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl: Boston College vs. Northwestern
December 29
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl: North Carolina vs. LSU
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl: Miami vs. Arizona
The Wildcats have risen too far to simply head to the LA Bowl because it is hosted by their favorite alum, Rob Gronkowsk.
AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Kansas State vs. Auburn
Goodyear Cotton Bowl: Ohio State vs. Texas
A prime opportunity for the next great Buckeyes receiver to reveal himself.
December 30
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: Missouri vs. SMU
At this point, pencil in the AAC champion to a New Year’s Six bowl. The top of the conference is a delightful chase, so it is anyone’s guess who will win it, but from a power rating perspective, the Mustangs get the edge.
TransPerfect Music City Bowl: Illinois vs. Kentucky
Capital One Orange Bowl: Louisville vs. Alabama
Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl: Northern Illinois vs. Boise State
January 1
ReliaQuest Bowl: Tennessee vs. Wisconsin
Penn State moving into a New Year’s Six bowl also moves each Big Ten team up a slot, bringing even the struggling Badgers to a New Year’s Day appearance.
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl: Mississippi vs. Iowa
VRBO Fiesta Bowl: Washington vs. Penn State
Rose Bowl (CFP Semifinal): Michigan vs. Florida State
Allstate Sugar Bowl (CFP Semifinal): Georgia vs. Oregon
January 8
CFP National Championship: Rose Bowl winner vs. Sugar Bowl winner
Schools already CFB bowl eligible
AAC
Tulane (10-1), 
SMU (9-2), 
Memphis (8-3), 
UTSA (8-3)
ACC
Florida State (11-0), 
Louisville (10-1), 
North Carolina (8-3), 
Duke (6-5), 
Boston College (6-5), 
North Carolina State (8-3), 
Miami (6-5), 
Clemson (7-4)
ACC-adjacent
Notre Dame (8-3)
Notre Dame is bowl-eligible at 7-3 and, as part of its pseudo-membership with the ACC, has access to all the conference’s bowl tie-ins aside from the Orange Bowl, which its third loss precluded, anyway.
Big 12
Texas (10-1), 
Oklahoma State (8-3), 
Kansas (7-4), 
Oklahoma (8-3), 
Kansas State (8-3), 
West Virginia (7-4)
Big Ten
Michigan (11-0), 
Ohio State (11-0), 
Penn State (9-2), 
Iowa (9-2), 
Rutgers (6-5), 
Maryland (6-5), 
(6-4)
Conference USA
Liberty (11-0), 
New Mexico State (9-3), 
Jacksonville State (8-3)*
MAC
Toledo (10-1), 
Miami (OH) (9-2), 
Ohio (8-3), 
Bowling Green (6-5)
Mountain West
Air Force (8-3), 
Fresno State (8-3), 
UNLV (9-2), 
Wyoming (7-4)
Pac-12
Washington (11-0), 
Oregon (10-1), 
USC (7-5), 
Oregon State (8-3), 
Utah (7-4), 
Arizona (8-3), 
UCLA(7-4)
SEC
Georgia (11-0), 
Alabama (10-1), 
Mississippi (9-2), 
Missouri (9-2), 
Tennessee (7-4), 
Kentucky (6-5), 
LSU (8-3), 
Texas A&M (7-4), 
Auburn (6-5)
Sun Belt
Troy (9-2), 
Coastal Carolina (7-4), 
Georgia Southern (6-5), 
Texas State (6-5), 
Georgia State (6-5), 
James Madison (10-1)*
*Becomes eligible if there are not 82 six-win teams
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