Bowling Green vs Toledo Odds, Picks and Predictions: Falcons Fight Back After Blowout Loss

There’s more midweek football in store for Week 12 as MACtion is in full swing.

The Toledo Rockets (7-3 overall, 5-1 MAC) look to add to their two-game lead in the West Division as they take on a surprising Bowling Green Falcons (5-5, 4-2) team that is only one game back in the East.

Will Toledo continue its dominance in the conference, or will Bowling Green have a few surprises planned?

Check out our college football picks and predictions for the Bowling Green Falcons and Toledo Rockets on Tuesday, November 15 to find out. 

Bowling Green vs Toledo best odds

Bowling Green vs Toledo picks and predictions

Toledo has been arguably the best team in the MAC this season, compiling a 5-1 conference record and winning two straight. The Rockets have routinely been a trendy pick in the MAC but have fallen short of expectations. Jason Candle turned that narrative around in 2022 as Toledo is charging toward what could be its first MAC Championship since 2017.

Offensively, Toledo is led by dual-threat quarterback Dequan Finn, who returned to health last week. They are averaging 35.1 points per game and a respectable 5.8 yards per play offensively, although Finn will need to cut down on his interceptions — he has thrown 10 picks on just 255 attempts. The defense has been spectacular, surrendering just 340.8 total yards on 4.7 yards per play. 

Bowling Green has been a big surprise in the MAC, sitting with a 5-5 record overall and a 4-2 record in conference play. While that may not look like much on the surface, it’s a vast improvement for a team that finished 4-8 in 2021 and 0-5 in the COVID-shortened 2020 season. The Falcons suffered a setback in last week’s 40-6 blowout loss to Kent State but had won three straight games before that defeat.

I believe this line is too wide and will be targeting Bowling Green as a 15.5-point underdog. The Falcons turned the ball over three times in last week’s loss to Kent State, making the final score look a lot worse than it was in actuality. The Falcons had 21 first downs compared to 25 for the Golden Flashes, so it’s not like they were thoroughly overmatched. The Falcons won three straight games before that contest and the shift in the betting market is an overreaction to a one-game sample size. 

Bowling Green has an underrated defense that has held every MAC opponent other than Buffalo under 6.0 yards per play. In what’s expected to be a low-scoring game, I’d prefer to have the underdog of over two touchdowns.

My best bet: Bowling Green +15.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Bowling Green vs Toledo spread analysis

If you like Bowling Green, the best price available at the time of this writing is +15.5 (-110) at BetMGM. If Toledo is your preferred option, there is currently a -14.5 (-110) available at FanDuel. As always, be sure to shop around as prices fluctuate. 

On one hand, Bowling Green has been a miserable team in conference play, going 7-15 against the spread in its last 22 MAC games. The Falcons have been even worse when the calendar flips to November, posting a 2-10 ATS record in their last 12 games played within the month. 

On the other hand, this is the best Bowling Green team we have seen in quite some time. The Falcons play hard-nosed defense and have a grinding style that has led to a successful 4-2 mark in conference play. With only one more game needed to reach bowl eligibility, there are clear signs that this program is finally headed in the right direction.

The Falcons have played up to their competition, going 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a winning record.

Toledo last covered a spread on October 15th against Kent State. Since then, the Rockets have dropped three straight games ATS with an average cover margin of -7.3. They are one of the best teams in the MAC but there isn’t much value in that knowledge, as the bookmakers have established them as the favorites in seven straight games. 

Bowling Green vs Toledo Over/Under analysis

The total is currently set at 50.5 across all sportsbooks. 

Bowling Green has been trending to the Under, posting a 4-1 mark in its last five games. The offense isn’t much to speak of, as the Falcons have topped 400 total yards in a game just once against FBS competition — and that was against lowly Akron.

Quarterback Matt McDonald is averaging just 6.5 yards per attempt, while the running game has mustered just 108.4 yards per game on 3.1 yards per rush. They get a tough matchup against Toledo, who held Eastern Michigan to 24 points and Ball State to 21 points in its last two games. 

Toledo is averaging 35.1 PPG offensively behind a balanced attack. The Rockets have at least 435 total yards in three of their last four games and will be a threat to do that again in this matchup against a good, but not great, Falcons defense. 

If playing the total, I would recommend taking a look at the Under. Both teams field solid defenses by MAC standards, and it will be a cold 36 degrees at the time of kickoff. 

Bowling Green vs Toledo betting trend to know

Bowling Green is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games against a team with a winning record. Find more NCAA betting trends for Bowling Green vs. Toledo.

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