BYU vs Notre Dame Odds, Picks and Predictions: Cougars Play the Long Game

So the Mormons and the Catholics walked into a casino in Las Vegas — no, no, this is not the setup to a joke. This is a Saturday night in college football. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish will meet the BYU Cougars in Las Vegas on Saturday in the newest edition of the Shamrock Series, a neutral-site series Notre Dame has put on most years since 2009 — a series in which the Irish have never lost.

Here are our free college football picks and predictions for BYU vs Notre Dame on October 8.

BYU vs Notre Dame best odds

BYU vs Notre Dame picks and predictions

Notre Dame made it a focus during its idle week to work on starting games faster. Only one of the four Irish opening possessions this season has resulted in a quality drive, a game-opening field goal at Ohio State. Otherwise, the program has scuffled early.

Just before the week off, though, the Irish bounced back from that opening three-and-out with 10 straight drives inside North Carolina’s 40-yard line. Those were, in fact, all of Notre Dame’s remaining genuine possessions that day. Some of that should be attributed to Gene Chizik’s first foray into coaching since 2016, but some of it was the Irish finding a groove.

On the other side of Allegiant Stadium this weekend, BYU has struggled in the first half in three straight games. That long of a stretch may qualify as a habit.

So if Notre Dame has emphasized finding that groove right from the opening kickoff and the Cougars have routinely let their opponents do so, then asking the Irish to win the first half by a field goal may not be a stretch.

Note: The initial premise here was a double result bet, but this handicapper struggled to find one available at a regulated sportsbook, but with this first-half spread less than a field goal, the same-game parlay we are building is hardly different from a first-half winner/second-half winner double result.

After halftime, however, BYU has dominated the last couple weeks. It was struggling with Wyoming and Utah State — games separated by three points combined at halftime — only to win by a combined 26 points, and that includes giving up a garbage-time touchdown to the Aggies. Cougars' head coach Kalani Sitake is in his seventh season of this work; he has found a touch at halftime adjustments.

Irish head coach Marcus Freeman has not yet found that deft need, losing his first three games despite leading in each of their second halves.

To take this bold best bet a step past recent trends, factor in the motivations at hand. Rare is the moment an opponent may have more on the line than Notre Dame does, but that is the case with BYU this week. The Cougars are two tough games away — the Irish now and then Arkansas next week — from all but assuring themselves a New Year’s Six appearance in their final season as an independent.

Notre Dame, meanwhile, may want to find its first winning record of the season and continue its Shamrock Series winning ways, but there is no hefty goal ahead of it like that potential New Year’s Six bid.

Sitake will assuredly tap into that late in Las Vegas if need be.

All of this is to say, in a close game, getting better than +800 odds that the score will flip by three points in the second half feels like immense value. There is logic and precedent to thinking this exact flip will become reality, but more than anything else, the value stands out here.

My best bet: Notre Dame -2.5 first half with BYU full-game moneyline (+821 at FanDuel)

BYU vs Notre Dame spread analysis

The full-game spread of 3.5 has not moved too much since the summer. In early “Game of the Year” odds, Notre Dame was favored by five. A week ago, it was a one-point favorite. Settling between those two because BYU struggled with Wyoming somehow feels both justified and an overreaction.

If the Cougars were simply looking past the Cowboys to this game, then playing with their food in that first half is understandable. Docking the spread across a key number is an overreaction.

It opening at -3 underscores that wonder.

This summer line obviously did not factor in the Irish getting pushed around by Marshall in mid-September. Notre Dame finding some momentum along both sides of the line at North Carolina is better than the alternative, but it is not as definitive a moment as that running-game performance suggests on paper. Three running backs each totaling more 100 yards from scrimmage stands out, but again, it was against the Tar Heels.

BYU vs Notre Dame Over/Under analysis

Freeman spent some of this week lamenting the possession or two each half in which the Irish give up a long drive. That may not sound like a lot, but it is conservatively 20 points, and put some emphasis there on conservative.

If that is BYU’s floor, then the total of 50.5 feels right on point and will hinge on how much of that North Carolina walloping Notre Dame can replicate.

Should anyone think the neutral site will lack atmosphere, rest assured knowing Irish fans have been in Las Vegas en masse since Thursday. BYU fans will presumably show up in short order, given their easier travel.

The only thing to lament right now is that this entire article did not devolve into a blackjack analogy, but the total of 50.5 does not beg a wonder of something going Over or Under 21, but rather 24 or 27. There was no pertinent way to work in here that one should never split 10s: you are ruining an already-excellent hand.

BYU vs Notre Dame betting trend to know

The Cougars are 0-3 ATS in their last three games, falling short of the spread by 12.7 points per game. Find more NCAA betting trends for BYU vs. Notre Dame.

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