Unbeaten teams are rarely two-score underdogs against winless teams, but such is the case as the Cal Golden Bears head to face the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
While those records stand as polar opposites, so do their levels of competition thus far. Cal has yet to face a team with any expectations around it, while Notre Dame lost to two conference title favorites. Those dichotomies may make handicapping this game a more ambiguous task than ideal.
Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Cal vs. Notre Dame on September 17.
California vs Notre Dame best odds
California vs Notre Dame picks and predictions
So much has become uncertain about the Irish program, nearly any bet on Notre Dame must be made cautiously. A week ago, this look-ahead line favored Notre Dame by two touchdowns, give or take half a point. When starting quarterback Tyler Buchner was announced as out for the season on Monday, the line fell as low as -9.
It eventually bounced back to -11 and -11.5, depending on your book. How much should Buchner be worth compared to junior quarterback Drew Pyne? Who knows? Truly, does anyone have enough of an idea to thus gauge this line? In his career, Buchner has thrown 85 total passes; Pyne has thrown just 39. Neither of those is enough of a sample size to know what either quarterback is.
Maybe the drop-off between them is so much that Cal should be only a touchdown underdog. Maybe it is so minimal that Notre Dame should still be favored by 14. Who knows? So let’s not get lost in that trap.
Two things have worked for the Irish offense this season: Buchner’s legs and passes to junior tight end and preseason All-American Michael Mayer. One of those offensive threats is obviously no longer. The other should now be featured even more.
Of Pyne’s 36 pass attempts in three games across the last two seasons, 10 went toward Mayer, including four of six last week after Buchner injured his shoulder. With Notre Dame clinging to hope against Marshall, Pyne’s first two plays went toward Mayer.
Those 10 attempts have resulted in seven completions for 92 yards and a touchdown just a week ago. If Pyne keeps looking for Mayer, it will not take long for the future first-round draft pick to be in the end zone again.
There is every reason to think Pyne will keep looking for Mayer, not only as a security blanket but the ideal security blanket for any quarterback, especially a backup now making his first career start.
My best bet: Michael Mayer anytime touchdown (+135 at FanDuel)
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for the 2022 college football season, here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at BetMGM can bet $10 and get $200 in free bets if any college team scores a touchdown! Sign Up Now
B) New users at DraftKings can get a deposit bonus up to $1,000. Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of College football promo codes for 2022.
California vs Notre Dame betting preview
Jump to:
•Spread analysis •Over/Under analysis •Game info •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Spread analysis
Notre Dame was simply outplayed by Marshall. There was nothing fluky in that loss. The Herd bullied the Irish on both sides of the line of scrimmage.
Meanwhile, Cal’s 20-14 win against UNLV was not as close as it seems, even if the Rebels had a first-and-goal chance to take the lead in the closing minutes.
The Bears missed a field goal, resorted to two more field goals when well into the red zone and threw a red-zone interception. All in all, Cal left up to 22 points on the field from close range.
That inability to finish a possession could prove costly in South Bend, but for these purposes, it should be noted the Bears fared better than realized against UNLV.
And as discussed above, plugging in Drew Pyne at quarterback turns Notre Dame’s offense into a bit of a mystery. Any bet on this spread may hinge on one’s gauge of Pyne while also pondering any continued Cal struggles in the red zone.
Over/Under analysis
If those thoughts sound like they are suggesting an Under, they probably are. This total falling to 41 after opening at 44.5 may scare some off, but the reality is still that these are two scuffling offenses.
Cal has struggled on offense for years. It remains head coach Justin Wilcox’s kryptonite. There is a chicken and an egg quandary when it comes to those failed red-zone trips last week.
Notre Dame’s offensive issues this season have been more all-encompassing than ever expected. The Irish offensive line has not gotten a push, the running backs have not hit holes, and the receivers have not created separation.
On the flip side, Wilcox’s specialty has always been defense, and Notre Dame’s has played well enough to win the last two weeks, giving up a total of 40 points.
California vs Notre Dame game info
• Location: Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, IN
• Date: Saturday, September 17, 2022
• Kick-off: 2:30 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC
California vs Notre Dame key injuries
Find our latest College football injury reports.
California vs Notre Dame weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.
California vs Notre Dame betting trend to know
In five of its last six games, Cal has given up 14 points or less.. Find more NCAA betting trends for California vs. Notre Dame.
